In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed my remembrances of the Riddler in the original Batman series and how he would pose riddles to the dynamic duo as they faced the certain demise. In that vein, I posed the following question: “IF investment success is achieved by ‘buying when others...

You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise ...

As discussed yesterday, the exuberance in the markets, as witnessed by the net positioning of large speculators, has reached records on both ends of the spectrum. Those extremes, combined with spiking levels of “hope” in both the financial and economic data is all too reminiscent of the past. I...

In 1980, the US government – along with pretty much all of its peers – began borrowing at an accelerating rate. Note on the following chart how the trend line steepened in the 2000s and then steepened again in this decade, with a sudden and unexpected pop in 2015 and early 2016, even as the curr...

Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy do...

There is little doubt currently that complacency reigns in the financial markets. Nowhere is that complacency more evident than in the Market Greed/Fear Index which combines the 4-measures of investor sentiment (AAII, INVI, MarketVane, & NAAIM) with the inverse Volatility Index. The reason I r...

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...

In this past weekend’s newsletter, I reviewed every S&P sector and several major markets to analyze the risk/reward opportunities that currently exist. In a nutshell, there really weren’t many. To wit: “We can also witness the rather extreme extension of prices above the 200-dma. Such exte...

Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one: This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman: Historically-reliable valuation measures now approach those observed at the 2000 bubble peak. Yet even this comparison overlooks the fact that in 2000, the ov...

Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks. Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent s...

With Donald Trump’s official first day in office now behind us, the markets are now trying to rebalance between “campaign promises” and “governing realities.”  Will withdrawal from the TransPacific Partnership be a good thing? Will a strong dollar due to a “Border Tax” be optimal? Wil...

For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday,  it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next c...

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...

The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convince...

The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak. Notably: U...

The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following: Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008 (CNBC) – While the S&...