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  • Debt, Deficits & Economic Warnings
    By on September 5, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    While the world has been focused on the Federal Reserve, the markets, and the upcoming election, few have noticed the expansion of the deficit in recent months which is now in excess of $667 billion up from a recent low of $530 billion. The chart below shows the history of U.S. surplus/deficit: Dur...
  • Q2 Earnings Review: Hockey Stick Hopes Remain
    By on September 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    With roughly 97% of the S&P 500 having reported earnings, as of the end of August, we can take a closer look at the results through the 2nd quarter of the year. Despite the exuberance from the media over the “number of companies that beat estimates” during the most recent reported period, ...
  • Consumer Confidence at 11-Month High!
    By on September 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released earlier this week based on data collected through August 18. The headline number of 101.1 was a solid increase from the final reading of 96.7 for July, a downward revision from 97.3. Today’s number was substantially above theIn...
  • Technically Speaking: Why Interest Rates Are Going To...
    By on September 1, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, as the Fed wrapped up their annual Jackson Hole confab, the markets sold off following suggestions the Fed might just hike rates in September after all. On Monday, the markets rallied to recover a majority of that lost ground keeping the markets confined within the very narrow, low volat...
  • Weekend Reading: The Coin Flip Market
    By on August 31, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As summer begins to fade, and kids return to school, the focus once again turns to the annual event of Central Bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. However, if you only looked at the market as a gauge as to the excitement of the event, well it must have been one pretty boring after-party. The current...
  • RecessionAlert: Weekly Leading Index Update
    By on August 30, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The latest index reading comes in at 16.4, up from the previous week’s revised 14.5. RecessionAlert has launched an alternative to ECRI’s Weekly Leading Index Growth indicator (WLIg). The Weekly Leading Economic Index (WLEI) uses fifty different time series from these categories: Corpora...
  • SPX Snapshot: Modest Loss Follows Jackson Hole Drama
    By on August 27, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This morning’s Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today’s session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 ...
  • 3 Things: $4 Trillion QE, VIX Update, Wage Warning
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Just recently, David Reifschneider, deputy director of the division of research and statistics for the Federal Reserve board in Washington, D.C., released a staff working paper entitled “Gauging The Ability Of The FOMC To Respond To Future Recessions.”  The conclusion was simply this: “Simul...
  • Existing Home Sales: Lose Momentum in July, YoY Negat...
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday morning’s release of the July Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units from 5.57 million in June. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.51 million. The latest number represents a 3.2% decrease from the previous ...
  • Hedge Fund Myths & Facts
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    “Genius hedge fund manager delivers alpha in good times and bad through stellar long and short stock picking, makes prescient market calls, thrives on market volatility and (unlike mutual fund managers) is perfectly aligned with their investors. WealthManagement.com (http://wealthmanagement.com) h...
  • Changing Culture: Gasoline Sales and Demographics
    By on August 24, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) monthly data on volume sales is several weeks old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-June, are now available. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of the ...
  • Technically Speaking: Volatility & The Bond Bull...
    By on August 24, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, I covered the extremely low levels of volatility in the market and the building potential for a snap back reversal which would likely coincide with a decline in the market. To wit: “The level of ‘complacency’ in the market has simply gotten to an extreme that rarely lasts long. The...
  • Bulls, Bears & The Broken Clock Syndrome
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This is a statement that is often thrown out during rising bull markets by the inherently optimistic crowd. However, such a statement really points to the ignorance of those that make such a claim. Why? Because if the “bears” are right twice a day, then the “bulls,” logically speaking, are w...
  • Weekend Reading: Valuation Challenged
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As another week comes to a close, we continue to wrestle with a market that remains detached from underlying economic data and clings to recent levels of over overbought, overextended and low reward/risk outcomes. Of course, in the final stages of a bull market, this is what has historically been t...
  • Liquidity Trapped! The Fed’s Policy Nightmare
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, we got the release of the minutes from the FOMC meeting in July. Not surprisingly, we see a Fed just as confused as ever as to what monetary policy actions should be taken. To wit: FED OFFICIALS SPLIT IN JULY ON WHETHER RATE HIKE NEEDED SOON A COUPLE FED OFFICIALS BACKED JULY RATE HIKE...
  • Rates, LEI & Hopes Of Economic Growth
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The domestic economic growth story took a beating in the first half of this year with an average growth rate of just 1%. For the seventh year running, the data has dashed the hopes of an economic resurgence by the Fed and the vast majority of mainstream economists. Unfortunately, this smidgen of...

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