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  • Major Inflection Point Coming
    By on February 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one: This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman: Historically-reliable valuation measures now approach those observed at the 2000 bubble peak. Yet even this comparison overlooks the fact that in 2000, the ov...
  • Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years
    By on January 31, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks. Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent s...
  • Technically Speaking: The Immediacy Trap
    By on January 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    With Donald Trump’s official first day in office now behind us, the markets are now trying to rebalance between “campaign promises” and “governing realities.”  Will withdrawal from the TransPacific Partnership be a good thing? Will a strong dollar due to a “Border Tax” be optimal? Wil...
  • Technically Speaking: The Psychological Impact Of Los...
    By on January 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday,  it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next c...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on January 12, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Major Stock Bear Still Looms
    By on January 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convince...
  • Three Mini-Bubbles Are Bursting
    By on January 5, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak. Notably: U...
  • 2007 All Over Again – Part VI: Stock Valuations...
    By on January 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following: Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008 (CNBC) – While the S&...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on January 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship be...
  • Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands
    By on December 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating regulations on businesses, and increase fiscal spending on infrastruc...
  • A New Look NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on November 7, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through September. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship b...
  • End Of The Bond Bull – Better Hope Not
    By on November 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been really busy as of late to cover all of the topics I have wanted to address. One topic, in particular, is the bond market and the ongoing concerns of a “bond bubble” due to historically low interest rates in the U.S. and, by direct consequence, historically high bond prices. Bob Bryan...
  • Technically Speaking: Bullish or Bearish?
    By on November 1, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, the markets opened higher but drifted lower into the afternoon as the support behind the markets as of late have continued to remain weak. As shown in the chart below, the markets remain trapped between the downward price trend from the summer highs and the rising bottoms from the Septem...
  • A New Look NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on October 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through August. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between mar...
  • Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Val...
    By on October 21, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The four valuation...
  • Yes, You Should Worry About Market Corrections
    By on October 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the biggest reasons why investors consistently underperform over the long-term is primarily due to the extremely flawed advice promoted by Wall Street, because they have a product or service to sell you, and the media, because they don’t know better. The latest bit of advice that you should...

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