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US Markets Archives | Page 3 of 131 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Technically Speaking: How Big Could A Correction Be?
    By on July 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of her citizens cannot cure.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower “If we just stick together, and remain true to our ideals, we can be sure that America’s greatest days lie ahead.” – Ronald Reagan Hope ...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on July 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Weekend Reading: Want Some Volatility With That?
    By on July 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last couple of week’s, volatility has certainly picked up. As shown in the chart below, stocks have vacillated in a 1.5% trading range ever since the beginning of June. (Chart through Thursday) Despite the pickup in volatility, support for the market has remained firm. Importantly, this...
  • Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market...
    By on July 6, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of June the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 99% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this ...
  • Is the Stock Market Cheap?
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard &am...
  • The World Is Now $217,000,000,000,000 In Debt.
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The borrower is the servant of the lender, and through the mechanism of government debt virtually the entire planet has become the servants of the global money changers.  Politicians love to borrow money, but over time government debt slowly but surely impoverishes a nation.  As the elite get gov...
  • Yes, Ms. Yellen…There Will Be Another Financial Cri...
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair, recently stated; “Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”  That is a pretty b...
  • The “Big Lie” Of Market Indexes
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion. “In a recent article “Signs of Excess – Crowding and Innovation” Lance stated ‘Note the chart above is what has happened to a $100,000 investment in the S&P Index. While the S&P ...
  • Technically Speaking: A Simple Method Of Risk Managem...
    By on June 30, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, I addressed the issue of how market innovations and “crowding” into specific trades have been signs of market excesses in the past. To wit: “That is the cycle of innovation in the financial marketplace. Despite the best of intentions, and advances in innovation, humans will always ...
  • A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on June 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between marg...
  • Signs Of Excess: Crowding & Innovation
    By on June 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I have regularly written about the many shortcomings of human psychology when it comes to investing. More importantly, while the emotions of “greed” and “fear” are the predominant drivers of not only investor behavior over time, they are also attributable to the development and delivery of t...
  • World Markets Update
    By on June 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through June 26. The top performer thus far is China’s Hang Seng with a gain of 17.60%, followed by India’s BSE SENSEX not far behind at 16.94%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 8.94%. The Last Four Weeks The table...
  • Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom
    By on June 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently came across a December 1996 San Jose Mercury News article on tech pioneers’ attempts to carry the pre-browser Internet’s bulletin board community vibe over to the new-fangled World Wide Web. In effect, the article is talking about social media a decade before MySpace and Facebook and ...
  • Weekend Reading: Oil Slick
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Beginning in December of last year, following the announcement by OPEC of a cut in oil production, I have discussed the “headwinds” that persist against a sustained rise in oil prices. “The supply/demand dynamics currently suggest that oil prices and energy-related investments could find a lon...
  • Data Says Fed Is Making A Mistake
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In their policy announcement last week, the members of the FOMC claimed: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.” Economic data has...
  • The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Z.1 Update
    By on June 22, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The Q Ratio is a popular method of estimating the fair value of the stock market developed by Nobel Laureate James Tobin. It’s a fairly simple concept, but laborious to calculate. The Q Ratio is the total price of the market divided by the replacement cost of all its companies. Fortunately, th...

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