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  • 6 Reasons To “Buy” This Bull Market…Or Not
    By on February 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week Frank Chaparro penned an interesting note: “It looks like this bull market just won’t quit. Friday marked the 2,003rd trading day since the stock market rally began back in 2009, making it even longer than the bull market that preceded the 1929 crash. And since President Donald Trump...
  • Technically Speaking: Riddle Me This
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed my remembrances of the Riddler in the original Batman series and how he would pose riddles to the dynamic duo as they faced the certain demise. In that vein, I posed the following question: “IF investment success is achieved by ‘buying when others...
  • This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise ...
  • Weekend Reading: Deja Vu
    By on February 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    As discussed yesterday, the exuberance in the markets, as witnessed by the net positioning of large speculators, has reached records on both ends of the spectrum. Those extremes, combined with spiking levels of “hope” in both the financial and economic data is all too reminiscent of the past. I...
  • Is This What They Mean By “Crack-Up Boom”?
    By on February 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In 1980, the US government – along with pretty much all of its peers – began borrowing at an accelerating rate. Note on the following chart how the trend line steepened in the 2000s and then steepened again in this decade, with a sudden and unexpected pop in 2015 and early 2016, even as the curr...
  • Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Nev...
    By on February 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy do...
  • 50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?
    By on February 13, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    There is little doubt currently that complacency reigns in the financial markets. Nowhere is that complacency more evident than in the Market Greed/Fear Index which combines the 4-measures of investor sentiment (AAII, INVI, MarketVane, & NAAIM) with the inverse Volatility Index. The reason I r...
  • Market Remains Overvalued…
    By on February 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Technically Speaking: Buy The Dip?
    By on February 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I reviewed every S&P sector and several major markets to analyze the risk/reward opportunities that currently exist. In a nutshell, there really weren’t many. To wit: “We can also witness the rather extreme extension of prices above the 200-dma. Such exte...
  • Major Inflection Point Coming
    By on February 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one: This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman: Historically-reliable valuation measures now approach those observed at the 2000 bubble peak. Yet even this comparison overlooks the fact that in 2000, the ov...
  • Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years
    By on January 31, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks. Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent s...
  • Technically Speaking: The Immediacy Trap
    By on January 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    With Donald Trump’s official first day in office now behind us, the markets are now trying to rebalance between “campaign promises” and “governing realities.”  Will withdrawal from the TransPacific Partnership be a good thing? Will a strong dollar due to a “Border Tax” be optimal? Wil...
  • Technically Speaking: The Psychological Impact Of Los...
    By on January 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday,  it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next c...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on January 12, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Major Stock Bear Still Looms
    By on January 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convince...
  • Three Mini-Bubbles Are Bursting
    By on January 5, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak. Notably: U...

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