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  • March 2017 | The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super ...
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history.  Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very ...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter....
  • Technically Speaking: The Stealth Rotation
    By on March 1, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Since December, I have been discussing the opportunity that existing in the potential for a rotation from the “risk-on” Trump Rally to the “risk-off” safety trade. I stated that in December we began buying these “risk off” trades based on this expectation and adding bonds, utilities, he...
  • Valuations Matter: Even For Millennial Investors
    By on February 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    A friend reached out to me today and asked me a simple question: “If the average person gets a $3000 tax refund every year and then invests the refund into the S&P 500, what would their end result look like?”  No problem. All we need to do is make a few quick assumptions. Historically, goi...
  • It’s Bubble Time!
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s impossible to predict with certainty how much more insane our financial markets will get before an inevitable correction. But my personal bet is: A lot! For my reasons why, take a few minutes to watch the chapter on bubbles below from The Crash Course. For those who haven’t seen it ...
  • Virtually Everyone Agrees That Current Stock Market V...
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Current stock market valuations are not sustainable.  If there is one thing that I want you to remember from this article, it is that cold, hard fact.  In 1929, 2000 and 2008, stock prices soared to absolutely absurd levels just before horrible stock market crashes.  What goes up must eventually ...
  • The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles
    By on February 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At PeakProsperity.com, we pride ourselves on providing fact-based context to breaking important events. Within 72 hours of the Japan tsunami in 2011, we had analyzed the situation and concluded with high probability that three core meltdowns had occurred at the Fukushima nuclear plant. While it took...
  • 6 Reasons To “Buy” This Bull Market…Or Not
    By on February 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week Frank Chaparro penned an interesting note: “It looks like this bull market just won’t quit. Friday marked the 2,003rd trading day since the stock market rally began back in 2009, making it even longer than the bull market that preceded the 1929 crash. And since President Donald Trump...
  • Technically Speaking: Riddle Me This
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed my remembrances of the Riddler in the original Batman series and how he would pose riddles to the dynamic duo as they faced the certain demise. In that vein, I posed the following question: “IF investment success is achieved by ‘buying when others...
  • This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise ...
  • Weekend Reading: Deja Vu
    By on February 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    As discussed yesterday, the exuberance in the markets, as witnessed by the net positioning of large speculators, has reached records on both ends of the spectrum. Those extremes, combined with spiking levels of “hope” in both the financial and economic data is all too reminiscent of the past. I...
  • Is This What They Mean By “Crack-Up Boom”?
    By on February 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In 1980, the US government – along with pretty much all of its peers – began borrowing at an accelerating rate. Note on the following chart how the trend line steepened in the 2000s and then steepened again in this decade, with a sudden and unexpected pop in 2015 and early 2016, even as the curr...
  • Recession 2017? Things Are Happening That Usually Nev...
    By on February 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Is the U.S. economy about to get slammed by a major recession?  According to Gallup, U.S. economic confidence has soared to the highest level ever recorded, but meanwhile a whole host of key economic indicators are absolutely screaming that a new recession is beginning.  And if the U.S. economy do...
  • 50% Correction Is Impossible! Really?
    By on February 13, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    There is little doubt currently that complacency reigns in the financial markets. Nowhere is that complacency more evident than in the Market Greed/Fear Index which combines the 4-measures of investor sentiment (AAII, INVI, MarketVane, & NAAIM) with the inverse Volatility Index. The reason I r...
  • Market Remains Overvalued…
    By on February 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Technically Speaking: Buy The Dip?
    By on February 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I reviewed every S&P sector and several major markets to analyze the risk/reward opportunities that currently exist. In a nutshell, there really weren’t many. To wit: “We can also witness the rather extreme extension of prices above the 200-dma. Such exte...

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