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  • Technically Speaking: Beware The Ides Of March
    By on March 20, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The month of March typically marks the beginning of Spring. This weekend will also mark the loss of an hour of sleep as we set our clocks forward an hour in observance of daylight savings time. As we will discuss momentarily, the month of March begins following an unseasonably warm winter period tha...
  • This Region Of The World Is Being Hit By The Worst Ec...
    By on March 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
      The ninth largest economy in the entire world is currently experiencing “its longest and deepest recession in recorded history”, and in a country right next door people are being encouraged to label their trash so that the thousands upon thousands of desperately hungry people that are di...
  • The World’s Most Deceptive Chart!
    By on March 15, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I received an email last week which I thought was worth discussing. “I just found your site and began reading the backlog of posts on the importance of managing risk and avoiding draw downs. However, the following chart would seem to counter that argument. In the long-term, bear markets seem harm...
  • Weekend Reading | Trump’s Rocket Ride
    By on March 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I have a simple question… If the rally in the market that began following the election was pricing in the expectations for tax reforms, repatriation, building the wall, and infrastructure spending, then what did the rally on Wednesday following Trump’s speech to Congress price in? With the mar...
  • Market Top? | Second Dumbest Money Pouring Into Stock...
    By on March 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the traditional signs of market tops is individual investors finally succumbing to the lure of apparently easy money and pouring their savings into the stock market. In the past this dumb money flowed into equity mutual funds in general. But today it’s favoring exchange traded funds (ETFs) ...
  • Market Remains Overvalued…
    By on March 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Broad Global Economic Expansion Supports Equity Marke...
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Economic data for February provided clear indications that the global economy is experiencing a broad recovery, with the major advanced economies growing close to or even above their estimated potential growth rates. This positive macroeconomic environment is providing a tailwind for equity markets...
  • The Coming Great Wealth Transfer
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In the past, I’ve warned about the coming Great Wealth Transfer.  But now we need to talk about it in the present tense, because it’s here. And it will only accelerate from here on out. The Rich will get richer at the expense of everybody else. This isn’t personal. It’s simply ...
  • How We Got Here In One Sentence…
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In every annual budget debate since the 1980s, one side figures out that the way to get what it wants – which is higher spending – is to frame the request in a particular, ingenious way: We have to borrow and spend way more now if we want to borrow and spend way less later. History has of course...
  • March 2017 | The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super ...
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history.  Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very ...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter....
  • Technically Speaking: The Stealth Rotation
    By on March 1, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Since December, I have been discussing the opportunity that existing in the potential for a rotation from the “risk-on” Trump Rally to the “risk-off” safety trade. I stated that in December we began buying these “risk off” trades based on this expectation and adding bonds, utilities, he...
  • Valuations Matter: Even For Millennial Investors
    By on February 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    A friend reached out to me today and asked me a simple question: “If the average person gets a $3000 tax refund every year and then invests the refund into the S&P 500, what would their end result look like?”  No problem. All we need to do is make a few quick assumptions. Historically, goi...
  • It’s Bubble Time!
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s impossible to predict with certainty how much more insane our financial markets will get before an inevitable correction. But my personal bet is: A lot! For my reasons why, take a few minutes to watch the chapter on bubbles below from The Crash Course. For those who haven’t seen it ...
  • Virtually Everyone Agrees That Current Stock Market V...
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Current stock market valuations are not sustainable.  If there is one thing that I want you to remember from this article, it is that cold, hard fact.  In 1929, 2000 and 2008, stock prices soared to absolutely absurd levels just before horrible stock market crashes.  What goes up must eventually ...
  • The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles
    By on February 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At PeakProsperity.com, we pride ourselves on providing fact-based context to breaking important events. Within 72 hours of the Japan tsunami in 2011, we had analyzed the situation and concluded with high probability that three core meltdowns had occurred at the Fukushima nuclear plant. While it took...

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