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  • Speculators Sour On Gold And Silver, Which Means The ...
    By on July 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The stars — in the form of smart and dumb money futures contract positions — have once again lined up favorably for precious metals. Here are those positions for gold and silver as of Tuesday the 4th. Notice that speculators (the dumb money) got a lot less optimistic — that is, less long and m...
  • Treasury Yields: A Long-Term Perspective
    By on July 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Let’s have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields as of Friday’s close. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range has been astonishing. The stagflation that set in after the 1973 Oi...
  • Picking Great Gold Stocks 2
    By on July 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the primary keys to success in investment and speculation is picking the right stocks to trade.  That’s no mean feat, as it takes great effort, expertise, and time to winnow the whole field down to the likely winners with the best fundamentals.  Although deeply out of favor now in the su...
  • Technically Speaking: Valuation Measures & Forwa...
    By on July 13, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    On the “Real Investment Hour” on Tuesday night, I addressed the issue of price versus fundamentals. In the short-term, a period of one-year or less, political, fundamental, and economic data has very little influence over the market. This is especially the case in a late-stage bull market adva...
  • 3 Videos + 8 Charts = Opportunities You Need to See &...
    By on July 13, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Our friends at Elliott Wave International (EWI) regularly put out great free content on their site. If you’ve visited their site before, you may have seen “Chart of the Day,” a featured series of videos that take a quick, but close examination of a chart from one of EWI’s pai...
  • The Breaking Point and Death Of Keynes
    By on July 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    You can almost hear the announcer for the movie trailer; “In a world stricken by financial crisis, a country plagued by spiraling deficits and cities on the verge of collapse – a war is being waged; gauntlet’s thrown down and at the heart of it all; two dead white guys battling over the fate o...
  • Gold Stocks’ Summer Bottom
    By on July 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have drifted lower over the past month, slumping back to major support.  This weakness has naturally intensified the bearish psychology engulfing this small contrarian sector, traders want nothing to do with it.  Yet summers typically see gold and its miners’ stocks mea...
  • Weekend Reading: Oil & Retail Send A Warning
    By on July 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    There are two important areas of the market that have historically been good leading indicators of the strength, or weakness, of the markets and the economy. Oil and retail. Currently, both areas are sending warning signs that should not be readily dismissed. First, with respect to oil, the bounce i...
  • Technically Speaking: How Big Could A Correction Be?
    By on July 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of her citizens cannot cure.” – Dwight D. Eisenhower “If we just stick together, and remain true to our ideals, we can be sure that America’s greatest days lie ahead.” – Ronald Reagan Hope ...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on July 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Weekend Reading: Want Some Volatility With That?
    By on July 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last couple of week’s, volatility has certainly picked up. As shown in the chart below, stocks have vacillated in a 1.5% trading range ever since the beginning of June. (Chart through Thursday) Despite the pickup in volatility, support for the market has remained firm. Importantly, this...
  • Car Sales Have A Long Way To Fall
    By on July 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The past decade’s historically low interest rates convinced millions of Americans to buy cars they could only afford with hyper-cheap credit. This made auto sales one of the drivers of the recovery, but it also left far too many people with underwater “car mortgages” that will limit their spen...
  • Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market...
    By on July 6, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of June the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 99% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this ...
  • Is the Stock Market Cheap?
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard &am...
  • The World Is Now $217,000,000,000,000 In Debt.
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The borrower is the servant of the lender, and through the mechanism of government debt virtually the entire planet has become the servants of the global money changers.  Politicians love to borrow money, but over time government debt slowly but surely impoverishes a nation.  As the elite get gov...
  • Yes, Ms. Yellen…There Will Be Another Financial Cri...
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair, recently stated; “Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”  That is a pretty b...

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