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In this past weekend’s missive I wrote: “So…Should I “Buy The F*$(@!# NOKO?” My best guess currently is – probably. But not yet.” “In our port...

Most Recent Articles

  • Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market...
    By on July 6, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of June the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 99% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this ...
  • Is the Stock Market Cheap?
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is the latest update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly average of daily closes for the past month. For the earnings, see the table below created from Standard &am...
  • The World Is Now $217,000,000,000,000 In Debt.
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The borrower is the servant of the lender, and through the mechanism of government debt virtually the entire planet has become the servants of the global money changers.  Politicians love to borrow money, but over time government debt slowly but surely impoverishes a nation.  As the elite get gov...
  • Yes, Ms. Yellen…There Will Be Another Financial Cri...
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Janet Yellen, Federal Reserve Chair, recently stated; “Will I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? No, probably that would be going too far. But I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will.”  That is a pretty b...
  • Stock Markets Hyper-Risky
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets have enjoyed an extraordinary surge this year, shattering all kinds of records.  It’s been fueled by hopes for big tax cuts soon from Trump’s Republican government.  But such relentless rallying has catapulted complacency, euphoria, and valuations to dangerous bull-slaying...
  • The “Big Lie” Of Market Indexes
    By on July 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, I received the following email from a reader which I thought was worth further discussion. “In a recent article “Signs of Excess – Crowding and Innovation” Lance stated ‘Note the chart above is what has happened to a $100,000 investment in the S&P Index. While the S&P ...
  • Technically Speaking: A Simple Method Of Risk Managem...
    By on June 30, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, I addressed the issue of how market innovations and “crowding” into specific trades have been signs of market excesses in the past. To wit: “That is the cycle of innovation in the financial marketplace. Despite the best of intentions, and advances in innovation, humans will always ...
  • Crude Oil Sinks 20%: Why Oversupply Isn’t the H...
    By on June 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I have a friend… let’s call him Larry. Let’s just say, Larry is not a fan of taking risks. He likes his reflexes fast, his cars slow, and his financial markets secure for the long haul. So, when Larry called me up at the beginning of this year to say he’s boarding the highly-...
  • A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on June 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between marg...
  • Signs Of Excess: Crowding & Innovation
    By on June 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I have regularly written about the many shortcomings of human psychology when it comes to investing. More importantly, while the emotions of “greed” and “fear” are the predominant drivers of not only investor behavior over time, they are also attributable to the development and delivery of t...
  • World Markets Update
    By on June 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    All eight indexes on our world watch list have posted gains for 2017 through June 26. The top performer thus far is China’s Hang Seng with a gain of 17.60%, followed by India’s BSE SENSEX not far behind at 16.94%. In third is our own S&P 500 with 8.94%. The Last Four Weeks The table...
  • Understanding The Cryptocurrency Boom
    By on June 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently came across a December 1996 San Jose Mercury News article on tech pioneers’ attempts to carry the pre-browser Internet’s bulletin board community vibe over to the new-fangled World Wide Web. In effect, the article is talking about social media a decade before MySpace and Facebook and ...
  • Weekend Reading: Oil Slick
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Beginning in December of last year, following the announcement by OPEC of a cut in oil production, I have discussed the “headwinds” that persist against a sustained rise in oil prices. “The supply/demand dynamics currently suggest that oil prices and energy-related investments could find a lon...
  • Gold Summer Doldrums!
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has spent most of June grinding lower on balance, damaging sentiment and vexing traders.  Usual selling leading into the Fed’s latest rate hike contributed, but the summer doldrums are also in play.  Gold has typically suffered a seasonal lull this time of year, on waning investment demand...
  • Data Says Fed Is Making A Mistake
    By on June 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In their policy announcement last week, the members of the FOMC claimed: “Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in May indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year.” Economic data has...
  • Automation’s Destruction of Jobs: You Ain’...
    By on June 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Employers have no choice: it’s innovate/automate or die. Automation–networked robotics, software and processes–has already had a major impact on jobs. As this chart from my colleague Gordon T. Long illustrates, the rise of Internet technologies is reflected in the steady, long-term...

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