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Beginning in early Spring, gold and silver faced two serious headwinds: Seasonality – that is, the annual decline in bullion demand from China and India once...

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  • Really Bad Ideas – Part III: Government Debt Is...
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The failure of fiat currency and fractional reserve banking to produce a government-managed utopia is generating very few mea culpas, but lots of rationalizations. Strangest of all these rationalizations might be the notion that government debt is not really a liability, but an asset. Where personal...
  • Top 3 Technical Tools Part 1: Japanese Candlesticks
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “I always will be an Elliottician, but other technical tools have merit and are indeed worthwhile: they allow me to build a case, build a more confident reason for making a forecast and for taking a trade; making a trading decision.” -Jeffrey Kennedy I recently asked Trader’s Class...
  • Gold Stocks Coiled Spring
    By on August 16, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have largely ground sideways this year, really lagging gold’s strong rally.  That lack of upside has decimated sentiment, leaving a bearish wasteland bereft of hope.  But this deeply-out-of-favor sector is actually a coiled spring, ready to surge dramatically as psychol...
  • Dumb and Dumber: The Money Keeps Pouring In
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Someday, stock, bond and real estate valuations will matter again. And the mechanism by which this return to sanity is achieved will probably be the torrent of money now flowing in from people who, for various reasons, don’t care about (or understand) the prices they’re paying. Millennials, for ...
  • Patrick Byrne: Why Cryptocurrencies Matter
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    This week we talk with Patrick Byrne, CEO of Overstock.com, and rare courageous voice within corporate America raising concern that powerful interests on Wall Street are destroying US companies for profit, robbing investors and destabilizing our financial system in the process. Byrne has been an e...
  • Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market...
    By on August 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Quick take: At the end of July the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 103% above its long-term trend, up from 101% the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a patt...
  • Technically Speaking: Bullish But Bearish
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last week, I was on vacation with my family taking a much-needed respite from the weekly workload. The good news is that usually when I go out of town, the market crashes. Such was not the case, and in fact, the Dow Industrials hit all-time highs. I pay little attention to the Dow due to t...
  • Plan For The Worst
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Currently, things could not be better. Stocks are hitting all time highs. Confidence is at record levels, and investors are “all in.” But maybe it is just for those reasons that we should take a pause. Records are records for a reason. Every strongly trending bull market throughout history has...
  • A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on August 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter...
  • Technically Speaking: Visualizing 10-Reasons For Caut...
    By on August 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    I know…I know… There seems to be absolutely nothing that can derail the current bull market. Geopolitical conflict – NOPE Political intrigue – NOPE Fed Reserve reducing liquidity to the markets – NOPE Lack of expected tax cuts, reform, and infrastructure spending – NOPE, NOPE, and NOPE....
  • Ron Rosen: The Dollar And Equities Will Plunge Togeth...
    By on August 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The dollar has been falling lately, which isn’t what a lot of people expected with the Fed being the only major central bank that’s raising interest rates. Higher yields on dollar balances should, according to basic economics, have attracted foreign capital to Treasury paper, thus putting upward...
  • Sugar Investors: “Desperately Seeking…...
    By on August 8, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last two years, sugar futures have crashed and spiked and crashed again — much like a diabetic without insulin. After plummeting to an 8-year low in September 2015, sugar prices then doubled in a stunning rally to a 4-year high in September 2016, only to turn back down in a 40% sell-o...
  • Gold Stocks’ Autumn Rally 2
    By on August 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks have suffered a lackluster year so far, mostly lagging gold’s solid new upleg.  But that vexing underperformance should soon give way to a big catch-up surge.  The deeply-out-of-favor gold stocks are now entering their strong season, which starts right about now with a ...
  • Is This The Bubble?
    By on August 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    As a portfolio manager, I start each morning by consuming copious amounts of a heavily caffeinated beverage and a data feed from a litany of web and blog sites. Over the last few days, as asset prices have set new records, there have been numerous articles on whether the market is currently in a bu...
  • Why Fed QT Bearish for Stocks
    By on August 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Ominously for the stock markets, the Federal Reserve is warning that quantitative tightening is coming later this year.  The Fed is on the verge of starting to drain its vast seas of new money conjured out of thin air over the past decade or so.  The looming end of this radically-unprecedented eas...
  • Technically Speaking: I Bought It For The Dividend!!
    By on August 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Okay, I have to discuss something this week that has been bugging me. I have had several emails as of late suggesting one of the biggest investing fallacies stated during late stage bull market advances. “I don’t care about the price, I bought it for the yield.” First of all, let’s clear up ...

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