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The month of March typically marks the beginning of Spring. This weekend will also mark the loss of an hour of sleep as we set our clocks forward an hour in obs...

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  • Silver Stocks’ New Upleg
    By on January 29, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The silver miners’ stocks have surged higher in this young new year, putting the Trumphoria general-stock rally to shame.  Following its fourth-quarter drubbing, this tiny contrarian sector is embarking on a major new upleg as traders return.  Silver-stock uplegs tend to grow to massive proporti...
  • Technically Speaking: The Immediacy Trap
    By on January 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    With Donald Trump’s official first day in office now behind us, the markets are now trying to rebalance between “campaign promises” and “governing realities.”  Will withdrawal from the TransPacific Partnership be a good thing? Will a strong dollar due to a “Border Tax” be optimal? Wil...
  • This Pension Thing Is About To Get Real
    By on January 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “The problem with police officers and firefighters isn’t a public-sector problem; it isn’t a problem with government; it’s a problem with the entire society. It’s what happened on Wall Street in the run-up to the subprime crisis. It’s a problem of people taking what they can, just becaus...
  • Gold Futures Looking Bullish
    By on January 22, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has rebounded sharply higher in the past month, taking the early lead as 2017’s best-performing asset class.  Normally such a big gold surge would require heavy gold-futures buying by speculators.  But they’ve been missing in action, barely moving any capital into gold yet.  Their collec...
  • Technically Speaking: The Psychological Impact Of Los...
    By on January 19, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For the third time in four weeks, the market was closed on Monday due to a holiday. Not only is this week shortened by a holiday,  it is also coinciding with the annual Billionaire’s convention in Davos, Switzerland and the Presidential inauguration on Friday. Increased volatility over the next c...
  • Japan. An Inflection Point.
    By on January 18, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Picture this story on the front page of the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal: japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/06/national/social-issues/japan-academic-societies-propose-defining-elderly-aged-75-older. Hat Tip to Jeff Uscher of Japan Insider for the catch. Jeff notes that “As of September 20...
  • Big Gold Buying Coming
    By on January 14, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has hit the ground running in this young new year, a stark contrast to its brutal post-election selloff.  Rather remarkably, these strong recent gains accrued despite literally zero buying from one of gold’s most-important constituencies.  The American stock investors who almost single-hand...
  • Market Remains Overvalued
    By on January 12, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more...
  • Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time
    By on January 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    One of life’s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you’d like them to. That’s where the sayings “Being too early is the same as being wrong” and “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” come from....
  • Major Stock Bear Still Looms
    By on January 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convince...
  • Gold Stocks Shine in 2017
    By on January 9, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold miners’ stocks are rocketing higher again after suffering a rough few months.  Following sharp selloffs on gold-futures stops being run, the Trumphoria stock-market surge, and a more-hawkish-than-expected Fed, this battered sector had largely been left for dead.  But gold stocks’ stro...
  • Three Mini-Bubbles Are Bursting
    By on January 5, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak. Notably: U...
  • 2007 All Over Again – Part VI: Stock Valuations...
    By on January 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following: Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008 (CNBC) – While the S&...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on January 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship be...
  • Radical Gold Under-Investment 3
    By on December 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold was again blasted to new post-election lows this week, further trashing contrarian sentiment.  The Fed proved more hawkish than expected in its rate-hike-trajectory forecast, unleashing heavy selling in gold futures.  This catapulted gold bearishness back up to extremes not seen in a year.  ...
  • Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands
    By on December 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating regulations on businesses, and increase fiscal spending on infrastruc...

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