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Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowne...

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  • Broad Global Economic Expansion Supports Equity Marke...
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Economic data for February provided clear indications that the global economy is experiencing a broad recovery, with the major advanced economies growing close to or even above their estimated potential growth rates. This positive macroeconomic environment is providing a tailwind for equity markets...
  • The Coming Great Wealth Transfer
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In the past, I’ve warned about the coming Great Wealth Transfer.  But now we need to talk about it in the present tense, because it’s here. And it will only accelerate from here on out. The Rich will get richer at the expense of everybody else. This isn’t personal. It’s simply ...
  • How We Got Here In One Sentence…
    By on March 7, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In every annual budget debate since the 1980s, one side figures out that the way to get what it wants – which is higher spending – is to frame the request in a particular, ingenious way: We have to borrow and spend way more now if we want to borrow and spend way less later. History has of course...
  • Gold Stocks’ Spring Rally 2
    By on March 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The gold stocks enjoyed a strong surge early this year, fully reversing their sharp post-election losses.  While they spent much of February consolidating before sliding, this sector’s seasonals will soon turn very favorable again in mid-March.  The gold miners have long enjoyed strong spring ra...
  • March 2017 | The End Of A 100 Year Global Debt Super ...
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    For more than 100 years global debt levels have been rising, and now we are potentially facing the greatest debt crisis in all of human history.  Never before have we seen such a level of debt saturation all over the planet, and pretty much everyone understands that this is going to end very, very ...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on March 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter....
  • Technically Speaking: The Stealth Rotation
    By on March 1, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Since December, I have been discussing the opportunity that existing in the potential for a rotation from the “risk-on” Trump Rally to the “risk-off” safety trade. I stated that in December we began buying these “risk off” trades based on this expectation and adding bonds, utilities, he...
  • Valuations Matter: Even For Millennial Investors
    By on February 28, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    A friend reached out to me today and asked me a simple question: “If the average person gets a $3000 tax refund every year and then invests the refund into the S&P 500, what would their end result look like?”  No problem. All we need to do is make a few quick assumptions. Historically, goi...
  • It’s Bubble Time!
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s impossible to predict with certainty how much more insane our financial markets will get before an inevitable correction. But my personal bet is: A lot! For my reasons why, take a few minutes to watch the chapter on bubbles below from The Crash Course. For those who haven’t seen it ...
  • Virtually Everyone Agrees That Current Stock Market V...
    By on February 27, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Current stock market valuations are not sustainable.  If there is one thing that I want you to remember from this article, it is that cold, hard fact.  In 1929, 2000 and 2008, stock prices soared to absolutely absurd levels just before horrible stock market crashes.  What goes up must eventually ...
  • Gold-Futures Buying Yet to Start!
    By on February 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold has powered higher in a strong new upleg since the Fed’s mid-December rate hike.  But the core group of traders who usually fuel early-upleg gains has been missing in action in recent months.  The gold-futures speculators have not done any meaningful buying since gold bottomed.  This anoma...
  • The Mother Of All Financial Bubbles
    By on February 25, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    At PeakProsperity.com, we pride ourselves on providing fact-based context to breaking important events. Within 72 hours of the Japan tsunami in 2011, we had analyzed the situation and concluded with high probability that three core meltdowns had occurred at the Fukushima nuclear plant. While it took...
  • 6 Reasons To “Buy” This Bull Market…Or Not
    By on February 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week Frank Chaparro penned an interesting note: “It looks like this bull market just won’t quit. Friday marked the 2,003rd trading day since the stock market rally began back in 2009, making it even longer than the bull market that preceded the 1929 crash. And since President Donald Trump...
  • How Many Euro Crises Will This Make? It’s Getting H...
    By on February 24, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Every few years, it seems, one or another mismanaged eurozone country falls into one or another kind of crisis. This leads to speculation about the end of the common currency, which in turn spooks the global financial markets. Then the ECB conjures another trillion euros out of thin air, buys up and...
  • Technically Speaking: Riddle Me This
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed my remembrances of the Riddler in the original Batman series and how he would pose riddles to the dynamic duo as they faced the certain demise. In that vein, I posed the following question: “IF investment success is achieved by ‘buying when others...
  • This Is Why You Don’t Own A Lot Of Stocks
    By on February 23, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    You’d think that by now every relevant measure of stock market overvaluation would have been converted into a chart and circulated throughout the blogosphere. But Zero Hedge has come up with a new one depicting how long the typical wage slave has to work to buy the typical stock. And – surprise ...

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