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» European Markets

  • IMF and Greece
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Greece could make it a few months delaying payment to the IMF — but it will need to reach an accord with its creditors by late July” writes Bloomberg Economist David Powell in this morning’s Bloomberg Brief. http://briefs.blpprofessional.com/issue?id=N-wZwyI1MP7GwRxM1xpNQA__ At Cumberland,...
  • Grexit: Remaining Eurozone No Longer ‘Base Case’ ...
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    According to the Wall Street Journal, Greece staying in the eurozone is no longer “the base case” for European officials, and one even told the Journal that “literally nothing has been achieved” in negotiations with the new Greek government since the Greek election almost three months ago. ...
  • Four Totally Bad Bear Recoveries: Where Are We Now?
    By on April 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    At the request of The Advisory Group in San Francisco, here’s updated comparison of four major cyclical bear markets. The numbers are through the April 17 close. This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929. They are: The Crash of ...
  • The Global Liquidity Squeeze Has Begun
    By on April 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Get ready for another major worldwide credit crunch.  Today, the entire global financial system resembles a colossal spiral of debt.  Just about all economic activity involves the flow of credit in some way, and so the only way to have “economic growth” is to introduce even more debt into the ...
  • Greece Contagion Risk
    By on April 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Source: Bloomberg.  Today, April 17, 2015.   Hat tip to Erwan Mahe, my articulate and observant friend in Paris who emailed me a note this morning. “Central banks in southeastern European countries, in cooperation with ECB’s SSM, have told banking subsidiaries of Greek lenders in their countr...
  • Germany’s Trade Surplus Is a Problem
    By on April 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In Code Red I wrote a great deal about trade imbalances among the various European countries, which were at the heart of the European sovereign debt problem. As the peripheral countries have tried to rebalance their trade deficits with Northern Europe and especially with Germany, they have seen thei...
  • Flows Into European Equities Reaches Feverish Pitch, ...
    By on April 3, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    So far the bullish themes for this year are foreign equities and U.S. bonds with the continued surge in the USD. These themes are borne out when looking at flows into exchange traded funds (ETFs) by asset class and geographic region. This can be seen in the table below that looks at ETF flows from t...
  • Aftershocks, Part 1: That Austrian Bank
    By on March 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Sometimes little things are the start of much bigger things. Probably the most famous historical example of this is the June 1914 assassination of an Austrian archduke who, it’s safe to say, 99% of the world had neither heard of nor cared about. But the aftershocks of the deed produced the biggest...
  • Central Banks Want Inflation, But Are Getting Potenti...
    By on February 5, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The fears after 2001 were that the Fed’s easy money policies to pull the economy out of the 2001 recession, followed by even more easing, including the near-zero Fed Funds rate instituted after the 2008 financial meltdown, would result in runaway inflation. Spiraling inflation was so sure to show ...
  • Switzerland Wins As Its Central Bank Surrenders
    By on January 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    If anyone had any doubt how severely the global economy has been distorted by the actions of central bankers, the “surprise” announcement last week by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro should provide a moment of crystal clarity. The decision sent ...
  • What In The World Just Happened In Switzerland?
    By on January 16, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Central banks lie.  That is what they do.  Not too long ago, the Swiss National Bank promised that it would defend the euro/Swiss franc currency peg with the “utmost determination”.  But on Thursday, the central bank shocked the financial world by abruptly abandoning it.  More than three yea...
  • Steen Jakobsen Warns: ECB About to Make Biggest Mista...
    By on January 16, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Saxo Bank CIO and chief economist Steen Jakobsen warns the US is not Europe, the Euro is not a good idea, and the ECB is About to Make Biggest Mistake in History. Via Mish-modified translation from El Economista. Steen Jakobsen has never been less outspoken regarding historic moment that is about t...
  • Eurozone Retail PMI Sinks Again
    By on January 16, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Markit reports the Eurozone Retail PMI shows further drop in sales at year-end. Key Points: Retail sales fall at faster rate in December Rates of contraction accelerate in France and Italy , while growth eases in Germany Wholesale price inflation remains close to November’s recent low Summary: La...
  • Nerve-Wracking Volatility Grinding You Down?
    By on January 14, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Market volatility continues, with more than enough catalysts; the seemingly endless plunge in oil prices and its growing impact on important global economies and trading partners; the up and down uncertainties in the euro-zone; the up and down uncertainties on when the Fed will begin to raise intere...
  • Eurozone Falls Into Deflation
    By on January 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As expected, the Eurozone fell into deflation last month, but details show energy and unprocessed food are the only things in decline. Services are up 1.2%. Please consider the Eurostat Flash Inflation Estimate for December 2014. Euro area annual inflation is expected to be -0.2% in December 2014, d...
  • ECB Will Be Big Factor In First Half Of 2015.
    By on January 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The European Central Bank has provided assurances for months that it is ‘monitoring’ economic conditions in the 18-nation euro-zone, and will take aggressive stimulus measures ‘if necessary’. However, even as those economic conditions worsen, increasingly indicating the euro-zone is sliding ...

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