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  • Interest Rates Spiking Everywhere
    By on May 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Just as ultra-low interest rates start to seem normal, the markets decide otherwise. US 10-year Treasury bonds yielded about 1.9% in April and are now above 2.20%: And the trend reversal isn’t limited to the US. Across Europe and Asia rates have spiked in the past month. From Bloomberg: What doe...
  • Swiss National Bank and Central Bank Accounting
    By on May 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In a May 13 guest commentary, Alex Pollock pointed out some very interesting information on the astounding market value losses reported by the Swiss National Bank due to the legal requirement that the bank mark to market euro-denominated assets purchased as part of its efforts to maintain a currency...
  • Debt To GDP Ratio For The Entire World: 286 Percent!
    By on May 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Did you know that there is more than $28,000 of debt for every man, woman and child on the entire planet?  And since close to 3 billion of those people survive on less than 2 dollars a day, your share of that debt is going to be much larger than that.  If we took everything that the global economy...
  • Investing in Europe? 5 Critical Insights to Boost You...
    By on May 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Here’s a fact you won’t hear about on financial TV. You know that the European Central Bank has been engaged in an unprecedented 1-trillion-euro quantitative easing effort, right? The goal has been to give European banks more capital. Free money! You’d think the banks would be prospering....
  • World Markets Weekend Update: China Bounces Back and ...
    By on May 17, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains over the past week, with China’s Hang Seng roaring back into its top-performer slot with a 2.44% advance following its -5.31% rout the week before. Japan’s Nikkei was a strong second with its 1.83% gain. The three European in...
  • The End Is Near, Part IV: Peak Trophy Asset Inflation
    By on May 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Stories about insane prices being paid for unique (and some not so unique) things are now a daily occurrence. A few examples: Picasso’s Women of Algiers smashes auction record (BBC) – Picasso’s Women of Algiers has become the most expensive painting to sell at auction, going for $160m (£102....
  • IMF Working On Contingency Plans for Greek Default
    By on May 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Schaeuble Warns Defaults Can Surprise As negotiations head down to the wire, Schaeuble repeats a message he gave a month ago Defaults Can Surprise. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble warned that sovereign defaults can catch officials off guard as Greece prepares for a finance ministers’ m...
  • World Markets Weekend Update: The East-West Divide
    By on May 11, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Five of the eight indexes on our world watch list posted gains over the past week, with Germany’s DAX at the top with a 1.33% advance. The three losers were the Eastern-most indexes. China’s Shanghai Composite ended a three-week streak as the top performer with a -5.31% plunge. Hong Kong...
  • GREXIT!
    By on May 5, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The way we see it, history is needed to guide us. Greece cannot continue indefinitely in depression, and it cannot pay. There is no good outcome. The people of Greece need a political outcome to give them a victory. We will invoke two historical images, one at the beginning of this commentary and on...
  • World Markets Weekend Update: The Worst Week of 2015
    By on May 3, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Six of the eight indexes on our world watch list traded lower this week, with China’s Shanghai Composite as the top performer for the third consecutive week, gaining 1.89% in holiday shortened week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was the other index to post a gain, albeit a modest 0.26%. The S&am...
  • 11 Signs That We Are Entering The Next Phase Of The G...
    By on April 26, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Well, the Nasdaq finally did it.  It has climbed all the way back to where it was at the peak of the dotcom bubble.  Back in March 2000, the Nasdaq set an all-time record high of 5,048.62.  On Thursday, after all these years, that all-time record was finally eclipsed.  The Nasdaq closed at 5056....
  • 3 Things: Kass, Rosie and Short
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “3 Things” is a weekly publication of ideas, usually contrarian, to provoke thoughtful discussions and decision-making processes. As a portfolio strategist, I am sharing things that I am considering with respect to current investment models and portfolio allocations. Please feel free to...
  • Spain: Unemployment Rate 23.7% – 114,300 Jobs V...
    By on April 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The economic recovery in Spain has gone from jobless to jobloss. Spain shed 114,300 jobs in the first quarter of 2015. Via translation from El Pais, Spain’s Unemployment Rate Rose Slightly in the First Quarter. The economic recovery has not been enough to create jobs. In the first three month...
  • Central Banks: Another Stunning Long-Term Chart
    By on April 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    From a recent presentation(.pdf) by Agustín Carstens, Bank of Mexico governor and chairman of the IMF’s International Monetary and Financial Committee, via this item at Wolf Street comes the chart below that, once again, reminds us all how far removed the global financial system is from anything...
  • When All News Is Bad News
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the defining traits of financial bubbles is the willingness of traders and investors to interpret pretty much everything as a buy signal. Rising corporate earnings mean growth, while falling profits mean easier money on the way. War means more revenues for defense contractors and easy money f...
  • IMF and Greece
    By on April 23, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Greece could make it a few months delaying payment to the IMF — but it will need to reach an accord with its creditors by late July” writes Bloomberg Economist David Powell in this morning’s Bloomberg Brief. http://briefs.blpprofessional.com/issue?id=N-wZwyI1MP7GwRxM1xpNQA__ At Cumberland,...

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