It’s no secret that volatility has been unusually low and benign. It can be seen in the volatility index VIX. It’s also no secret that low volatility breeds investor complacency. What’s to worry about if the Dow moves only in fractional increments, may not manage new highs by more than a fra...

Just a few situations that seem short-term overbought above key moving averages:       Short-Term patterns still tracking. The ‘monthly strength period’ (last two trading days of month and first four trading days of following month), was due to begin Friday and to run through ...

Here is what we know. The economy has been slowing since last fall, when the impressive 3rd quarter GDP growth of 4.1% slowed to only 2.6% in the fourth quarter. The report that it unexpectedly plunged to only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year was a surprise to Wall Street and economists. The...

In the popular press and TV financial shows, cash is a dirty word. After all, as they say, “It doesn’t earn interest or pay a dividend. It doesn’t grow in value. In fact, it just sits there, its value eroding at whatever is the pace of inflation”. “You can never get rich holdi...

The market has spiked higher, most indexes at new record highs. That has the market short-term overbought again, above 50-day moving averages, and above trendline support, making at least a short-term pullback quite likely. A pullback to its 50-day m.a. by the S&P 500 would amount to only 4%,...

The economy may be recovering from its winter slowdown. But the jobs report that 217,000 new jobs were created in May is clearly not evidence of that, if we look beneath the headlines. Last week, the Commerce Department unexpectedly revised first quarter GDP growth down to negative, -1.0%. The Fed...

The market was up for the month of May, so Sell in May has failed as a strategy. At least that’s what you would think from the many articles in the financial press. Do they spend even a few minutes checking their facts? For instance, a current article in a prominent financial publication says, â...

As usual at this time of year, you can hardly pick up a financial publication without seeing an article about how the idea of Sell in May out-performing the market is a myth. That’s in spite of more than 60 years of clear evidence of its out-performance in academic and other independent studies. ...

It’s no secret that just prior to previous significant market tops, not only were corporate insiders selling heavily, but founders of start-ups and their venture capital backers were rushing to raise cash via initial public offerings (IPO’s) before the market could top out on them. We know that...

Is it that enough positive economic reports are shining through the preponderance of dismal reports to keep the market’s spirits up? Or is it that irrational exuberance has reached the stage where the market has stopped looking at reality and believes only what it wants to believe? I ask because t...

The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. The weekly charts below are current through the ...

Almost 90 days ago I shared the 3-pack below, where I inverted Google, Bio-Tech and Tesla, which reflected that each had formed bullish falling wedges. Since the charts were inverted, they were suggesting that each of these three were vulnerable to a decline. In no time each of these fell on averag...

Several European countries held important elections last week. Here’s what Mathew Lynn had to say about them for the Wall Street Journal’s ‘London Eye’: “In France, the country that created the European Union and the euro, voters backed a party committed to tearing it down. In Britain...

I have often written of how the housing and auto industries are the most important market sectors. They are the largest purchases most consumers make, purchases usually made not only with current income, but spending now years of future income by borrowing through mortgages and auto loans. They also...

We like everyone, were looking forward to the April housing reports to provide definitive evidence that the economy is recovering from its winter slowdown, to relieve concerns about GDP growth declining from 4.1% in the 3rd quarter, to 2.4% in the 4th quarter, to 0.1% in the 1st quarter of this year...

As goes January so goes the year. Avoid the first two years of the Four-Year Presidential Cycle. Buy in the fall of the 2nd year of the presidential cycle and hold through to the end of the third year. Sell in May and re-enter in October. Those are all strategies proven to out-perform the market ov...