» Technical Analysis

Bull markets normally last an average of 4.5 years. By that time, stocks are usually over-valued, the market is over-extended, the Fed is making plans to cool off the enthusiasm, and the bull market/ bear market cycle begins to sequence into the next bear market. Super bull markets, those that go be...

The September/October pullback in the U.S. market was only minor. But it wiped out all of the year’s gains. However, it found support, the market’s favorable annual seasonality kicked in, and the U.S. market gained back all the losses and went on to new highs. However, European markets respond...

The consensus of the 35 intermediate-term technical indicators we use remains on the sell signal for gold. But gold again became oversold beneath its 20-week m.a. and has been attempting to rally again. The oversold condition shows more clearly on the short-term charts. The short-term rally attemp...

The Federal Reserve spent this year winding down its $85 billion a month QE stimulus program. With that task completed, the hot topic of analysts, and concern of markets, is how soon the Fed will take the next step in moving back toward normal monetary policies. That is, when will it begin raising i...

It was just about a month ago that the market had given up all of its gains for the year. And now in just over a month, the S&P 500 has gained 13.3% from its low on October 15, and so is up 12.1% for the year. Hurray! Yahoo! The market’s favorable season and our buy signal is off to a great s...

Crude oil prices, at a four-year low, have plunged 30% in the past six months, and it looks like they are destined to fall further. In its monthly report, released Friday, the International Energy Agency said, “Our forecasts indicate that barring any new supply disruptions, downward price pressure...

A number of global markets outside of the U.S. have been in serious declines. But have they bottomed? Or just rallied back from oversold conditions beneath their 50-day m.a. back up to potential resistance at the moving averages?     To read my weekend newspaper column click here: Buy th...

Since hitting a record high of $1921.50 per ounce in September 2011, gold prices have erased 30% in value. By the end of day on October 3, 2014, gold prices were circling the drain of a 15-month low.After such devastation, the global community of gold analysts, advisors and investors finds itself sc...

It’s not a secret. Investor sentiment in the U.S. is at very high levels of bullishness and confidence. However, the ZEW Center for European Economic Research reported this week that its investor confidence index fell from 8.6 in August to 6.9 in September. It has fallen for nine straight mont...

Gold experienced a spectacular bull market run from its low at $250 an ounce in 2001 to its peak above $1,900 an ounce in 2011. Its long bull market was largely supported by expectations that the Fed’s easy money policies would create spiraling inflation, of which gold, the historical hedge agains...

Germany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Index fell from 8.6 in August to 6.9 in September. France’s Prime Minister warned that if economic and financial conditions are not reversed “in three to six months, we’ll be ‘foutu’”, which is being translated as ruined or knackered. China reported t...

As I noted in Saturday’s blog, Barron’s reported that not even one of the market strategists it surveys each September expects the market to go down. 100% are bullish. The Investors Intelligence Sentiment survey of investment letters, shows the smallest number of bears in 27 years. That’s low...

Current market projections are diverse. Nobel Laureate in economics Jeremy Siegel says he is still not concerned with valuations and has upped his previous projection of 18,000 for the Dow by year-end to “possibly 19,000″. However, Nobel Laureate in economics Robert Shiller is very worri...

China’s breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation has been yet another example of how the direction of the breakout from such a pattern usually determines the next direction. China’s Shanghai Index broke out of the pattern to the upside in late July, and has gained 10.2% in the two months ...

Bonds continue to defy the experts and pundits, continuing to make new rally highs even as talk increases that the Fed will have to begin raising interest rates sooner than previously expected. Are bonds maybe saying the economy is not as strong as the Fed thinks, or that something is going to happ...

Not that we are predicting a bear market. But is it true, as some are claiming, that it would be rare for a bear market to begin this late in the year after reaching a new high in August. In fact, of the 25 bear markets since 1900, five of them began in September. And another 10 of them began in Oct...