Investors are complacent, even confident, regarding the prospects for 2015. That is in spite of the market being at valuation levels higher than all but one previous market peak of the last 100 years, while the economy appears to be slowing, corporate earnings growth is slowing, and the bull market ...

Here is what we can quite confidently depend on. The stock market makes most of its gains each year in a favorable period of November to May, and if there is a serious correction it usually takes place between May and October. Even in this unusually long and strong bull market, sustained by Fed sti...

There are reasons in the technical charts, in the fundamentals, and in investor sentiment, to believe gold is ready for at least a tradable bear market rally. In a January column, I noted that gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year, and was one...

The fears after 2001 were that the Fed’s easy money policies to pull the economy out of the 2001 recession, followed by even more easing, including the near-zero Fed Funds rate instituted after the 2008 financial meltdown, would result in runaway inflation. Spiraling inflation was so sure to show ...

US Treasury Bonds defied the experts last year, and continue to so far this year. A year ago it was supposedly a sure thing that bonds would plunge sharply when the Fed began cutting back its massive QE bond-buying program. But our technical indicators (not shown) said otherwise, that bonds had alr...

At the age of 72 months, the U.S. bull market may be long in the tooth. Stocks may be significantly over-priced based on the CAPE-10 P/E ratio, and Warren Buffett’s favorite measurement, the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. Plunging oil prices, threatening deflation, and weak global economie...

Last week was the third straight down week. Five straight down days before yesterday’s rally. Ugly. The late strong rally was encouraging. But all the major indexes remain beneath their 50-day moving averages, and it takes more than one day to indicate an upside reversal. And although the intrada...

Gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year. That was a sizable bear market move. Shorter-term, it was one of last year’s worst performers, down 15% for the year. In a recent column, I noted how at year-end, investors looking for the next year’s...

Market volatility continues, with more than enough catalysts; the seemingly endless plunge in oil prices and its growing impact on important global economies and trading partners; the up and down uncertainties in the euro-zone; the up and down uncertainties on when the Fed will begin to raise intere...

The European Central Bank has provided assurances for months that it is ‘monitoring’ economic conditions in the 18-nation euro-zone, and will take aggressive stimulus measures ‘if necessary’. However, even as those economic conditions worsen, increasingly indicating the euro-zone is sliding ...

It’s truly amazing how the Fed can affect global markets so dramatically, not with actions but with just a few words in a statement, or even a remark from an individual Fed governor. How often do we see it over the years? It doesn’t always work when conditions simply overwhelm any ability of wo...

Last year was a dismal year for oil, the energy sector in general, commodities, and gold. Following through with the theme of my weekend newspaper column of how investors tend to shop for the next year’s winners from the lists of the previous year’s hottest out-performers, while studies show the...

Studies show that one of the most persistent patterns investors follow is ‘chasing performance’. It’s most prevalent at this time of year. Investors shop for next year’s winners from the lists of the best performing stocks or mutual funds of the previous year. They switch from the successful...

As usual when the market is rallying, the focus is on the positive news events and economic reports, as reasons for a rally to continue. And during pullbacks, the focus is on the negative reports as reasons why this time might be the beginning of more than just a pullback. Economic reports were mix...

Remember back in the Sept/October period when I periodically tallied the volatility of the Dow’s triple-digit days? At one point I noted there had been 21 triple-digit closes by the Dow in the previous 28 trading days. Ten had been to the upside, 11 to the downside. In one two-day period I noted ...

It was just a week ago that financial headlines bemoaned the market having suffered its worst week in more than 2 years. The bears came out of hiding with scary forecasts. Plunging oil prices, previously thought to be a positive for global economies, were suddenly seen as a major negative, along wit...