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» Technical Analysis

  • European Markets Look Downright Scary
    By on August 12, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Here’s the situation. The economy of the 18-nation European Union is about the same size as that of the U.S., with roughly equal impacts on each other and on global growth. Germany, France, and the U.K. are the largest economies in the EU, and the fourth, fifth, and sixth largest economies in the...
  • Should European Markets Plunge Worry US Investors?
    By on August 8, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There were a lot of examples of instant analysis recently, pointing out that Europe’s markets were down on increased concerns about the Russia/Ukraine situation. But has the problem not more likely been related to economic reports and the actions that may or may not be taken by European central b...
  • China Rally Defies Market Plunges Elsewhere
    By on August 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The breakout of China’s market from its five-year bear market is looking more real all the time. It was particularly impressive how it moved so independently of the U.S. and European markets recently, rallying further as they sold off so sharply. Even on days when Asia markets were down, China’...
  • China’s Market Finally Looks Like A Buy!
    By on July 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Is China’s economy, the second largest in the world, a disaster coming down to a hard landing, which has been the popular forecast for four or five years now? Or is it merely slowing from unsustainable double-digit growth of more than 12% a few years ago, to a more reasonable and sustainable pace?...
  • Will Investors Get Out On Time This Time?.
    By on July 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It is normal and understandable that investor confidence grows as paper profits in a long rally or bull market pile up. It’s therefore normal and inevitable that investor sentiment will be at its most bullish for that cycle by the time a rally or bull market tops out. However, it is also true that...
  • Market Bounce-Back Last Week Was Not Impressive
    By on July 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Markets most everywhere closed up this week. At first glance it looks great. But a look at the technical charts shows it was not impressive, particularly in the U.S. and Europe. For instance, the NYSE Composite and Nasdaq closed down 1.5% the previous week and bounced back only 0.4% this week. The...
  • Chart Comparisons With Previous Market Tops
    By on July 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There are three observations being made about the current resilience of the stock market. 1. The market has gone 33 months, since 2011, without at least a 10% correction. 2. It has gone 1,014 days without a 20% correction. That’s the longest stretch since it went 1,127 days, from July, 1984 to Aug...
  • Bond Rally Not A Good Omen For Stock Market!
    By on July 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Fed says the economy remains healthy enough that it will continue to taper back its QE stimulus at a rate of $10 billion a month, with plans to have it at zero by October. Speculation now is on when it will begin the next step toward returning its monetary policy to normal, by beginning to raise...
  • Increased Volatility Could Flip Switch On Complacency...
    By on July 11, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s no secret that volatility has been unusually low and benign. It can be seen in the volatility index VIX. It’s also no secret that low volatility breeds investor complacency. What’s to worry about if the Dow moves only in fractional increments, may not manage new highs by more than a fra...
  • A Few Short-Term Overbought Situations?
    By on July 4, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Just a few situations that seem short-term overbought above key moving averages:       Short-Term patterns still tracking. The ‘monthly strength period’ (last two trading days of month and first four trading days of following month), was due to begin Friday and to run through ...
  • Worry About The Second Quarter, Q1 Is History
    By on June 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is what we know. The economy has been slowing since last fall, when the impressive 3rd quarter GDP growth of 4.1% slowed to only 2.6% in the fourth quarter. The report that it unexpectedly plunged to only 0.1% in the first quarter of this year was a surprise to Wall Street and economists. The...
  • The Potential Value Of Cash
    By on June 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In the popular press and TV financial shows, cash is a dirty word. After all, as they say, “It doesn’t earn interest or pay a dividend. It doesn’t grow in value. In fact, it just sits there, its value eroding at whatever is the pace of inflation”. “You can never get rich holdi...

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