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  • Has Pullback Ended or Hardly Begun?
    By on January 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week was the third straight down week. Five straight down days before yesterday’s rally. Ugly. The late strong rally was encouraging. But all the major indexes remain beneath their 50-day moving averages, and it takes more than one day to indicate an upside reversal. And although the intrada...
  • Gold Rally Has Technical and Fundamental Support.
    By on January 17, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold plunged 48% from its record high above $1,900 an ounce in 2011, to its low late last year. That was a sizable bear market move. Shorter-term, it was one of last year’s worst performers, down 15% for the year. In a recent column, I noted how at year-end, investors looking for the next year’s...
  • Nerve-Wracking Volatility Grinding You Down?
    By on January 14, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Market volatility continues, with more than enough catalysts; the seemingly endless plunge in oil prices and its growing impact on important global economies and trading partners; the up and down uncertainties in the euro-zone; the up and down uncertainties on when the Fed will begin to raise intere...
  • ECB Will Be Big Factor In First Half Of 2015.
    By on January 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The European Central Bank has provided assurances for months that it is ‘monitoring’ economic conditions in the 18-nation euro-zone, and will take aggressive stimulus measures ‘if necessary’. However, even as those economic conditions worsen, increasingly indicating the euro-zone is sliding ...
  • Fed-Speak To The Rescue Again?
    By on January 9, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s truly amazing how the Fed can affect global markets so dramatically, not with actions but with just a few words in a statement, or even a remark from an individual Fed governor. How often do we see it over the years? It doesn’t always work when conditions simply overwhelm any ability of wo...
  • 2015: Recovery Year for Energy and Commodities?
    By on January 4, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last year was a dismal year for oil, the energy sector in general, commodities, and gold. Following through with the theme of my weekend newspaper column of how investors tend to shop for the next year’s winners from the lists of the previous year’s hottest out-performers, while studies show the...
  • Seasonal Sweet Spot For Small Stocks?
    By on January 3, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Studies show that one of the most persistent patterns investors follow is ‘chasing performance’. It’s most prevalent at this time of year. Investors shop for next year’s winners from the lists of the best performing stocks or mutual funds of the previous year. They switch from the successful...
  • Volatility Will Continue In The Important New Year.
    By on December 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    As usual when the market is rallying, the focus is on the positive news events and economic reports, as reasons for a rally to continue. And during pullbacks, the focus is on the negative reports as reasons why this time might be the beginning of more than just a pullback. Economic reports were mix...
  • Has The Wild Volatility Accomplished Anything?
    By on December 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Remember back in the Sept/October period when I periodically tallied the volatility of the Dow’s triple-digit days? At one point I noted there had been 21 triple-digit closes by the Dow in the previous 28 trading days. Ten had been to the upside, 11 to the downside. In one two-day period I noted ...
  • What Are Technical Indicators Saying About The Market...
    By on December 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It was just a week ago that financial headlines bemoaned the market having suffered its worst week in more than 2 years. The bears came out of hiding with scary forecasts. Plunging oil prices, previously thought to be a positive for global economies, were suddenly seen as a major negative, along wit...
  • Measuring The Potential Of The Current Correction
    By on December 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    After months of consistent predictions by the mainstream media that markets would only march higher, airtime is  now dominated with one simple question: “How big will this correction be?” That is the question that I want to explore in more detail strictly from a technical viewpoint. Sin...
  • Short-Term Pullback or Something Worse?
    By on December 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A few weeks ago when we called for a short-term pullback of 4 to 5%, it was due solely to the short-term overbought condition of the major indexes above their 50-day moving averages, and that the short-term technical indicators had triggered a short-tem sell signal. However, another condition unexp...
  • Does Worst Week In 2 1/2 Years Mean Anything?
    By on December 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It was a scary week. The headlines are full of the observation that it was the worst week for the U.S. stock market in 2 1/2 years. Okay. But does that fact by itself mean anything as far as whether this is just the brief pullback from an overbought condition our short-term indicators told us and yo...
  • Expected Market Pullback Has Likely Begun!
    By on December 10, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    We have been noting for several weeks that the market was short-term overbought and quite likely to experience at least a short-term pullback of 3 to 5%. Last week our short-term technical indicators triggered a short-term sell signal, and this week it looks like that pullback is underway. Wall Str...
  • Is The Secular Bear Market Behind Us?
    By on December 9, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    We are still in a bull market, as indicated by our Bull Market/Bear Market Indicator. Our intermediate-term indicators remain on a buy signal, and the market is in its favorable season of Oct – May, and the blue chips of the Dow and S&P 500 are making new highs. Short-term, the market is very...
  • Are We In Another 1990’s-Style Super Bull Marke...
    By on December 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Bull markets normally last an average of 4.5 years. By that time, stocks are usually over-valued, the market is over-extended, the Fed is making plans to cool off the enthusiasm, and the bull market/ bear market cycle begins to sequence into the next bear market. Super bull markets, those that go be...