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  • Meet QT: QE’s Evil Twin
    By on September 9, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however...
  • Panic
    By on August 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The typical Dow stock now trades for 15.5x this year’s earnings and 14.0x next year. Not cheap, but no longer the 18x earnings we had with the Dow at +18,000. Dividend yields – and every Dow company has a quarterly payout – are 2.3% on the average versus 2.13% for the 10 Year Treasury. Bottom ...
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet
    By on August 18, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    If you have been reading my commentaries for very long, you are already aware that I live in Houston, Texas which is the energy capital of the world. While the Houston economy has transformed since the “oil bust” in the 80’s, do not be misled about the importance of energy as a cri...
  • Technically Speaking: A Sellable Rally
    By on July 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. This commentary also updates the more detailed analysis and allocation model provided weekly in the X-Factor Repo...
  • Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again
    By on July 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wiped out the global financial system, a new and much bigger commodities/derivatives bubble is threatening to finish the job. Raw materials are tanking as capital pours out of the most heavily-impacted countries and into anything that look...
  • Housing Market: Is the Roof About to Cave In (Again)?
    By on July 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    During the subprime mortgage meltdown, the hardest-hit regions saw home price declines that exceeded 50%. Fast forward to the headlines today: Vancouver’s detached home prices at record high as demand soars (Globe and Mail, July 3) Hong Kong’s first-half home sales, prices at record h...
  • The Punch Bowl Stays
    By on June 12, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    It is well known that I don’t think much of the ability of government officials to correctly forecast much of anything. Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have made famously clueless predictions with respect to stock and housing bubbles, and rank and file Fed economists have consistently overestimat...
  • In Denial: We Pursue Endless Growth At Our Peril
    By on June 10, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As we’ve been discussing of late here at PeakProsperity.com, humans desperately need a new story to live by. The old one is increasingly dysfunctional and rather obviously headed for either a quite dismal or possibly disastrous future. One of the chief impediments to recognizing the dysfunctio...
  • Are We in Another Credit Bubble? And Is It Different ...
    By on May 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Part 1 of our FREE report on the recent build-up in credit includes a chart of U.S. corporate debt issuance since 1998 you don’t want to miss Whatever your politics, creed or nationality — we can all agree that a huge catalyst for the 2008-9 global financial meltdown was the universal b...
  • When The Current Housing Bubble Finally Bursts?
    By on May 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Bubbles are followed by echo-bubbles, and the bursting of the second bubble ends the speculative cycle. If we have learned anything in the past 20 years of massive asset bubbles and equally massive declines when the bubbles finally pop, it’s this: those caught up in the expansionary phase of t...
  • Housing Recovery: Real Or Memorex?
    By on May 26, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There are probably quite a few of you reading this article who do not remember the old“Memorex” commercials when “cassette tapes” were THE recording technology of the day. It was yesterday’s release of the housing starts data that reminded me of that slogan –R...
  • The End Is Near, Part V: Paying Dividends With Borrow...
    By on May 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    A recent Goldman Sachs report explains where this year’s stock market profits (should there be any) will come from: Buybacks and Dividends All That’s Left in S&P 500, Goldman Says (Bloomberg) — The $1 trillion that U.S. companies are on track to return to shareholders this year will const...
  • Secular Trends in New Residential Building Permits an...
    By on May 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday we reported separately on the latest residential building permits and housing starts in the government’s report for April data, courtesy of the Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Despite the fact that both are monthly SAAR series (seasonally adjusted a...
  • 4 Factors Signaling Volatility Will Return With A Ven...
    By on May 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    No one could have predicted the sheer scope of global monetary policy bolstering the private banking and trading system. Yet, here we were – ensconced in the seventh year of capital markets being buoyed by coordinated government and central bank strategies. Today we welcome Nomi Prins as our n...
  • Stocks and Bonds Due For Generational Crash of 75%!
    By on May 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    From the point of view of history, a reversion to generational lows is inevitable, and a valuation level around 50% of GDP for stocks is a fair target. If we look back to 1981 valuations of stocks and bonds as a guide to valuations at the next generational low, we find stocks and bonds are due for a...
  • New Residential Housing Starts Surged in April
    By on May 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development have now published their findings for April new residential housing starts. The latest reading of 1.135M was well above the Investing.com forecast of 1.019M. Here is the opening of this morning’s monthly report: Priv...

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