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  • Epic Battle: Hedge Funds vs China
    By on February 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    George Soros’ successful bet against the British pound back in 1992 remains one of financial history’s epic tales. The short version of the story begins with Britain linking its currency, the pound, to the German deutschmark via the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). But Britain’s inflati...
  • Major Stock Bear Awakening
    By on January 18, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets have suffered their worst early-year losses in history in young 2016, an ominous proof that a major trend change is underway.  The Fed’s new tightening cycle is already slaying recent years’ extraordinary easy-Fed-fueled stock-market levitation.  Unfortunately the only pos...
  • Technically Speaking: 5 Signs Of A Naughty Market!
    By on December 14, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    It is hard to believe that Christmas is just TWO Friday’s away as the year seems to have slipped by in blur. This brings two primary issues into focus. The first is that I have not done any shopping as of yet. The second is that despite the hopes of a stronger economy and earnings environment at t...
  • Fed’s US Debt Bomb
    By on October 31, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    With the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade looming, traders are working overtime trying to divine its timing and impact on the markets.  They are closely monitoring the same employment and inflation data the Fed will use to start tightening.  But there’s another little...
  • 3 Things: 1998, NIM, and Dumb Money
    By on October 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently quoted the importance of the current profits “recession” as it relates to potential market outcomes for investors. “To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, both for risk assets and for the real economy. None of the data speaks to rec...
  • 3 Things: Why The Fed Is Screwed…
    By on October 16, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In May of 2014, the Federal Reserve began discussing a newly designed labor market index to help support their claim that employment conditions in the U.S were improving. This was an important facility for the Fed which needed support to raise interest rates. My good friend Doug Short has a complete...
  • 4 Important Warnings: Why You Should Pay Attention
    By on October 13, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was: ̶...
  • Technically Speaking: The Real Correction Is Still Co...
    By on October 7, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    In last week’s update, I discussed the short-term oversold condition that existed at that time. To wit: “As you will notice, the reflexive rally, and subsequent failure, have tracked the original predictions very closely up to the point. With the market once again very oversold on a sho...
  • Groundhog Day at the Fed
    By on September 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Every dictator knows that a continuous state of emergency is the best means to justify tyrannical policies. The trick is to keep the fictitious emergency from breeding so much paranoia that routine activities come to a halt. Many have discovered that its best to make the threat external, intangib...
  • Investors Bet on Housing Again (Just in Time for Anot...
    By on September 22, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The U.S. housing market may be about to implode — again. Before I get into the “why,” know that the residential real estate market never fully recovered. Annualized new home sales this past July stood at 507,000, vs. the July 2005 peak of 1.39 million. The chart and commentary from...
  • Higher Interest Rates? Not Next Month, Not Even Next ...
    By on September 19, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Not only did the Fed vote to keep interest rates stable yesterday, it did so overwhelmingly — with just as many members apparently favoring lower rates as higher. Now all the people who bought the “rate normalization” promise/threat are backtracking. From today’s Bloomberg: Expecting a Fed ...
  • Meet QT: QE’s Evil Twin
    By on September 9, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There is a growing sense across the financial spectrum that the world is about to turn some type of economic page. Unfortunately no one in the mainstream is too sure what the last chapter was about, and fewer still have any clue as to what the next chapter will bring. There is some agreement however...
  • Panic
    By on August 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The typical Dow stock now trades for 15.5x this year’s earnings and 14.0x next year. Not cheap, but no longer the 18x earnings we had with the Dow at +18,000. Dividend yields – and every Dow company has a quarterly payout – are 2.3% on the average versus 2.13% for the 10 Year Treasury. Bottom ...
  • Oil Supply-Demand Suggests Pain Not Over Yet
    By on August 18, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    If you have been reading my commentaries for very long, you are already aware that I live in Houston, Texas which is the energy capital of the world. While the Houston economy has transformed since the “oil bust” in the 80’s, do not be misled about the importance of energy as a cri...
  • Technically Speaking: A Sellable Rally
    By on July 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    “Technically Speaking” is a regular Tuesday commentary updating current market trends and highlighting shorter-term investment strategies, risks, and potential opportunities. This commentary also updates the more detailed analysis and allocation model provided weekly in the X-Factor Repo...
  • Central Banks Ready To Panic — Again
    By on July 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Less than a decade after a housing/derivatives bubble nearly wiped out the global financial system, a new and much bigger commodities/derivatives bubble is threatening to finish the job. Raw materials are tanking as capital pours out of the most heavily-impacted countries and into anything that look...

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