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  • Harry Dent: Stocks Will Fall 70-90% Within 3 Years
    By on January 31, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Economist and cycle trend forecaster Harry Dent sees crushing deflation ahead for nearly every financial asset class. We are at the nexus of a concurrent series of downtrends in the four most important predictive trends he tracks. Laying out the thesis of his new book The Sale Of A Lifetime, Dent s...
  • Major Stock Bear Still Looms
    By on January 10, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The US stock markets spectacularly defied the odds in 2016, soaring after both the UK’s Brexit vote and US presidential election.  Both actual outcomes were universally feared as very bearish for stocks before the events.  These contrary stock rallies have left traders feeling euphoric, convince...
  • Three Mini-Bubbles Are Bursting
    By on January 5, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The world has gotten so used to ultra-low interest rates that even economists and money managers seem to be shocked by what happens when rates start creeping back towards normal levels. Some of the mini-bubbles that formed in an essentially free-money environment are now starting to leak. Notably: U...
  • 2007 All Over Again – Part VI: Stock Valuations...
    By on January 4, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    The Trump Christmas stock market rally has taken valuations beyond a point that in the past has signaled trouble, which in turn has generated a lot of cautionary press like the following: Market indicator hits extreme levels last seen before plunges in 1929, 2000 and 2008 (CNBC) – While the S&...
  • A New Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market
    By on January 2, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship be...
  • Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands
    By on December 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating regulations on businesses, and increase fiscal spending on infrastruc...
  • Economic Breadth Is Significantly Deteriorating in th...
    By on November 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Philly Fed state coincident data came out today and more states across the country are starting to contract (shown in red). Looking at the snapshot below, positively growing states still dominate the map (and don’t give much of an alarming picture), but a different story emerges when we look a...
  • Home Ownership Rate Lowest Level In 50 Years
    By on November 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last decade the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to decline. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q3 2016. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q3 is 63.4 percent, up from 63.1 in Q2. The nonseasonally adjusted Q...
  • The Next Recession Looms Large
    By on October 18, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate ...
  • 3 Things: Confidence Peak, Dumb Money & Bonds Ar...
    By on October 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It was interesting to see the markets reaction to the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday, along with some of the media headlines, to wit: “Consumer confidence just surged to its highest level since the recession. The latest reading on consumer confidence from the Conference Board came in at 10...
  • Consumer Confidence at 11-Month High!
    By on September 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released earlier this week based on data collected through August 18. The headline number of 101.1 was a solid increase from the final reading of 96.7 for July, a downward revision from 97.3. Today’s number was substantially above theIn...
  • Technically Speaking: Why Interest Rates Are Going To...
    By on September 1, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, as the Fed wrapped up their annual Jackson Hole confab, the markets sold off following suggestions the Fed might just hike rates in September after all. On Monday, the markets rallied to recover a majority of that lost ground keeping the markets confined within the very narrow, low volat...
  • 3 Things: $4 Trillion QE, VIX Update, Wage Warning
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Just recently, David Reifschneider, deputy director of the division of research and statistics for the Federal Reserve board in Washington, D.C., released a staff working paper entitled “Gauging The Ability Of The FOMC To Respond To Future Recessions.”  The conclusion was simply this: “Simul...
  • Big Policies, Bigger Failures…
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to “corr...
  • Existing Home Sales: Lose Momentum in July, YoY Negat...
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday morning’s release of the July Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units from 5.57 million in June. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.51 million. The latest number represents a 3.2% decrease from the previous ...
  • Hedge Fund Myths & Facts
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    “Genius hedge fund manager delivers alpha in good times and bad through stellar long and short stock picking, makes prescient market calls, thrives on market volatility and (unlike mutual fund managers) is perfectly aligned with their investors. WealthManagement.com (http://wealthmanagement.com) h...

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