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  • Fiscal Spending: Crystal Balls and Magic Wands
    By on December 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    What does a Trump Presidency mean for the economy and the markets, and does it alter our defensive posture? The short answer is no, and here’s why. Trump has made it clear that he wants to lower taxes, roll back suffocating regulations on businesses, and increase fiscal spending on infrastruc...
  • Economic Breadth Is Significantly Deteriorating in th...
    By on November 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Philly Fed state coincident data came out today and more states across the country are starting to contract (shown in red). Looking at the snapshot below, positively growing states still dominate the map (and don’t give much of an alarming picture), but a different story emerges when we look a...
  • Home Ownership Rate Lowest Level In 50 Years
    By on November 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Over the last decade the general trend has been consistent: The rate of home ownership continues to decline. The Census Bureau has now released its latest quarterly report with data through Q3 2016. The seasonally adjusted rate for Q3 is 63.4 percent, up from 63.1 in Q2. The nonseasonally adjusted Q...
  • The Next Recession Looms Large
    By on October 18, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate ...
  • 3 Things: Confidence Peak, Dumb Money & Bonds Ar...
    By on October 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    It was interesting to see the markets reaction to the Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday, along with some of the media headlines, to wit: “Consumer confidence just surged to its highest level since the recession. The latest reading on consumer confidence from the Conference Board came in at 10...
  • Consumer Confidence at 11-Month High!
    By on September 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released earlier this week based on data collected through August 18. The headline number of 101.1 was a solid increase from the final reading of 96.7 for July, a downward revision from 97.3. Today’s number was substantially above theIn...
  • Technically Speaking: Why Interest Rates Are Going To...
    By on September 1, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, as the Fed wrapped up their annual Jackson Hole confab, the markets sold off following suggestions the Fed might just hike rates in September after all. On Monday, the markets rallied to recover a majority of that lost ground keeping the markets confined within the very narrow, low volat...
  • 3 Things: $4 Trillion QE, VIX Update, Wage Warning
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Just recently, David Reifschneider, deputy director of the division of research and statistics for the Federal Reserve board in Washington, D.C., released a staff working paper entitled “Gauging The Ability Of The FOMC To Respond To Future Recessions.”  The conclusion was simply this: “Simul...
  • Big Policies, Bigger Failures…
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to “corr...
  • Existing Home Sales: Lose Momentum in July, YoY Negat...
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday morning’s release of the July Existing-Home Sales decreased from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units from 5.57 million in June. The Investing.com consensus was for 5.51 million. The latest number represents a 3.2% decrease from the previous ...
  • Hedge Fund Myths & Facts
    By on August 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    “Genius hedge fund manager delivers alpha in good times and bad through stellar long and short stock picking, makes prescient market calls, thrives on market volatility and (unlike mutual fund managers) is perfectly aligned with their investors. WealthManagement.com (http://wealthmanagement.com) h...
  • Weekend Reading: Valuation Challenged
    By on August 23, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    As another week comes to a close, we continue to wrestle with a market that remains detached from underlying economic data and clings to recent levels of over overbought, overextended and low reward/risk outcomes. Of course, in the final stages of a bull market, this is what has historically been t...
  • Rates, LEI & Hopes Of Economic Growth
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The domestic economic growth story took a beating in the first half of this year with an average growth rate of just 1%. For the seventh year running, the data has dashed the hopes of an economic resurgence by the Fed and the vast majority of mainstream economists. Unfortunately, this smidgen of...
  • Now The Markets Themselves Are Too Big To Fail
    By on August 16, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The First Rebuttal website has coined a term that gets to the heart of an increasingly dysfunctional system: The too-big-to-fail stock market. The general thesis is that most major countries are over-leveraged to that point of maybe being unable to survive a garden variety equities bear market – a...
  • 3 Things: Take The Under, Bond Worries, Earnings Dece...
    By on August 10, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the biggest “lies” in the financial world is that if you just invest your money in the markets over the long-term, you will average 7, 8 or 10% a year.  Just recently Myles Udland at Business Insider penned the following: “From 1928 to 2014 the annualized return for the S&P 500 is...
  • 5 Questions Market Bulls Must Answer
    By on August 3, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    There has been a litany of articles written recently discussing how the stock market is set for a continued bull rally. The are some primary points that are common threads among each of these articles which are that interest rates are low, corporate profitability is set to recover and the Central...

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