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  • Is This What They Mean By “Crack-Up Boom”?
    By on February 17, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    In 1980, the US government – along with pretty much all of its peers – began borrowing at an accelerating rate. Note on the following chart how the trend line steepened in the 2000s and then steepened again in this decade, with a sudden and unexpected pop in 2015 and early 2016, even as the curr...
  • This Pension Thing Is About To Get Real
    By on January 26, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    “The problem with police officers and firefighters isn’t a public-sector problem; it isn’t a problem with government; it’s a problem with the entire society. It’s what happened on Wall Street in the run-up to the subprime crisis. It’s a problem of people taking what they can, just becaus...
  • Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time
    By on January 11, 2017 | No Comments  Comments
    One of life’s hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you’d like them to. That’s where the sayings “Being too early is the same as being wrong” and “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” come from....
  • What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis: Brexit Edition
    By on November 4, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    In June the UK shocked the world – or at least the world’s elites – by voting to pull out of the European Union. Economists predicted disaster, EU leaders threatened pain for British exporters and tourists, and the media settled in to watch the UK shrivel and die. Four months later, the approp...
  • Stupid Stuff: Late-2016 Edition
    By on October 27, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Cyclical turning points tend to feature large numbers of people doing and saying what in retrospect turn out to be amazingly dumb things. Think GM highlighting its line of Hummers just before an oil price spike bankrupts the company. Or half the world betting that tech stocks with infinite P/E ratio...
  • More Good News For Gold Bugs: The Bottom Is Getting C...
    By on October 26, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    In the latest gold and silver commitment of traders (COT) report (click here for an explanation of what this report involves), paper players made big strides in bringing the market back into balance — and setting the stage for an eventual rebound. Speculators – who tend to be emotional and there...
  • Great News For Gold Bugs: The COT Report Is Playing O...
    By on October 19, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    This year’s recovery in precious metals prices – and the sudden spike in gold/silver mining stocks – convinced a lot of people that a new bull market had begun. Last week’s brutal smack-down scared the hell out of many of the same folks. The latest commitment of traders (COT) report implies ...
  • Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Rates In This World?....
    By on October 11, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    I know it’s bad form to express sympathy for the people running the world’s central banks. But come on, they’re human beings in an impossible spot with no idea how to escape. The pain they feel is both intense and legitimate, and we should respond with at least a bit of empathy. Just kidding....
  • Here’s How Europe Implodes – Part 1: Italian ...
    By on September 30, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The “whatever it takes” economy is progressing nicely around the world, with governments and central banks doing things that no 20th century economist would have viewed as possible, let alone wise. Now the question becomes, where does this process hit the wall first? Based on recent events, Euro...
  • The Next Experiment – Part 1: Japan Prepares To...
    By on September 5, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    For most of the world, the past decade’s monetary and fiscal experiments are viewed as failures. See, for instance, French support for the EU project crumbling on both left and rightand Why were smart people suckered by Abenomics? So what do the best and brightest now running global economic polic...
  • US Treasury Yields Go Negative Everywhere But Here
    By on August 20, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Negative interest rates are an existential threat for insurance companies, pension funds and other financial entities that need positive investment returns to survive. As rates on government bonds have gone negative in Europe and Japan, the above companies have been big buyers of US Treasury bonds, ...
  • Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Interest Rates In Thi...
    By on July 9, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Two short months ago it was generally expected that US interest rates would rise for the balance of the year — a move made possible by steady economic growth and general global stability. Here’s a representative piece of reporting from early April: WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Ra...
  • Brexit’s Big Loser: Japan?
    By on July 2, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the first results of Britain’s voting to leave the European Union was a sharply lower pound. Which means the UK is now winning the currency war. Henceforth its exports will be cheaper around the world, enabling its major companies to sell more stuff, make more money and hire more people. In...
  • A New Balance Of Power In The Gold Market
    By on June 25, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold analyst Michael Ballanger just posted an article noting how much things have changed — perhaps for the better — in the gold market. Here’s an excerpt: Commercial Traders Have Just Gone Over the Top (24hGold) – With Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report, the ridiculous has just metast...
  • Big Names Are Bailing…
    By on June 16, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The list of heavy hitters who are saying bad things about this world and its financial markets — while acting aggressively on their pessimism — is growing to alarming proportions. A few examples: Stan Druckenmiller: The bull market is exhausted; move to gold (MineWeb) – Legendary investor Sta...
  • Junior Precious Metals Miners: Go With Who You Know
    By on June 11, 2016 | No Comments  Comments
    The first few months of this year gave a little taste of what’s to come for the junior precious metals miners, if this is indeed the start of a new gold/silver bull market. Some sample charts: There were dozens more like this, obscure little miners that soared when investors concluded that mayb...

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