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  • Corn!
    By on August 13, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Two expert agricultural economists joined this year’s gathering in Maine. Their expertise is worldwide. Each of them has years of experience forecasting various ag scenarios and resulting global impacts.  One is chief economist of a major, worldwide trading company; the other is affiliated wi...
  • Strong Dollar Fallacy
    By on June 12, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    After a shocking upset in Greece’s parliamentary elections, the US dollar surged dramatically.  Soaring 5.4% in May alone, the world’s reserve currency won legions of fans among traders.  “King Dollar” was universally lauded, with everyone jumping on the strong-dollar bandwagon.  But this...
  • The Facebook IPO Should Be Ringing Alarm Bells!
    By on May 23, 2012 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    I’m tired of all the coverage of the Facebook IPO. Yet the IPO provides important lessons for investors, investment banks, the Nasdaq, and regulators concerned about the ability of the stock exchanges to handle high volume events. As everyone is aware, the Nasdaq system could not keep up with the...
  • Plunging Commodities Ominous For Stock Markets!
    By on May 12, 2012 | 3 Comments3 Comments  Comments
    Consumers understandably like to see prices for commodities decline, the more the merrier, particularly gasoline and energy costs. Many analysts also take commodity price declines as a positive for the economy, on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and manufact...
  • China Commodities Drag!
    By on April 21, 2012 | 258 Comments258 Comments  Comments
    Commodities have been sinking like stones since late February, an unusual divergence from the rallying stock markets.  This relentless weakness has wreaked havoc on commodities sentiment, leading traders to abandon commodities stocks.  As we all try to make sense of this surreal bloodbath, one cat...
  • What Do Commodities See That Markets Do Not?
    By on April 4, 2012 | No Comments  Comments
    Please consider a series of chart my friend BC put together of various indices vs. the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Equity Index ($CRX). $SPX vs. $CRX click on any chart for a sharper image $CYC vs. $CRX $TRAN vs. $CRX $DJUSRR vs. $CRX What is the Commodities Sector Seeing that the Stock M...
  • Dangerous Ideas: Peak Oil
    By on February 24, 2012 | 222 Comments222 Comments  Comments
    We are at a key turning moment in history. The actions that we will soon decide to take will be determined by the beliefs we hold. At a time like this, holding the wrong set of beliefs can destroy your wealth, sap your joy, and even prove to be life-shortening. Knowing the ‘right’ sets ...
  • Technical Update: Currencies and Commodities Splinter
    By on December 29, 2011 | 248 Comments248 Comments  Comments
    One of the most important elements of entering a longer term trade is understanding why you are doing such. Price will go higher or lower alone is not sufficient. You need to understand the basis for such movement in price. That way as the trade evolves you can begin to understand if your thesis is ...
  • Dollar Crushes Commodities.
    By on December 19, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    The long-in-the-tooth commodities correction plunged to new lows this week.  Traders were disappointed the Fed didn’t announce a new quantitative-easing campaign, so they dumped the popular commodities with a vengeance.  But realize the primary driver of the recent commodities weakness is not th...
  • Commodities Oversold, Eyeing The Dollar.
    By on October 26, 2011 | 38 Comments38 Comments  Comments
    Below are trading range charts for 10 major commodities from the Bespoke Group.  All 10 commodities are currently at or below the bottom of their trading ranges, which would suggest at the moment, a good opportunity to get in at oversold levels for investors looking to gain long-term exposure. How...
  • Copper: Red Alert On The Red Metal!.
    By on September 22, 2011 | 58 Comments58 Comments  Comments
    At the end of last year I made predictions (a total of 44) of what might come. So far I’ve got (at least) one right and other dead wrong. I’m worried about the one I’m wrong on. Right -Volatility is going up across the board. If you have the stomach for the swings that are coming across al...
  • Short Squeeze: Wednesday Market Recap.
    By on September 15, 2011 | No Comments  Comments
    Another fun day in the equity markets. With conviction among shorts mixed, some strong some not so and longs pretty much all in market action of late is a war but not your typical war. No longer bull versus bear it is now bear versus bear. Weak hands versus strong hands. Today the weak hands won. Th...
  • The Great CRB Escape Part II.
    By on September 12, 2011 | 65 Comments65 Comments  Comments
    When the CRB and CRX commodity indexes broke support back in 2008, we experienced the “Great Escape.” Investors started selling everything in sight, and the CRX index fell 50% in a matter of months, taking stocks with it. Is GE2 (Great Escape II) about to take place? These two key co...
  • Commodities Look Set to Rocket Higher.
    By on September 10, 2011 | 49 Comments49 Comments  Comments
    I’ve been asked to comment on the work of a few noted deflationists who are calling for a top in commodity prices here. Their argument is pretty clear cut: Because inflation is a function of available money plus credit (their definition), and because credit has fallen, deflation is what co...
  • Are Commodities Expecting QE3?
    By on September 3, 2011 | 48 Comments48 Comments  Comments
    The Fed’s QE2 program was a failure as far as the economy is concerned. The U.S. economy is in considerably worse shape than last summer when the Fed attempted to come to the rescue with its QE2 flood of extra dollars into the global financial system. But QE2 did have a big effect on global stock...
  • What is SPX Fair Value?.
    By on August 15, 2011 | 408 Comments408 Comments  Comments
    Credit and commodity markets are saying one thing while equities are saying another and only time will tell which market(s) were right. History though is clearly on the side of credit and commodities based on prior recessions including the 2008 “not so great” recession where equities peaked just...

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