The much-denied hard landing in China is now underway with weakening data everywhere one looks. Today there is More Bad News For China as FDI Falls. Foreign direct investment in China fell to the lowest level in two years in July, fueling concern that waning confidence in the nation’s growth pro...

What do the following have in common? LIBOR, Bernie Madoff, MF Global, Peregrine Financial, zero-percent interest rates, the Social Security and Medicare entitlement funds, many state and municipal pension funds, mark-to-model asset values, quote stuffing and high frequency trading (HFT), and debt-b...

Two expert agricultural economists joined this year’s gathering in Maine. Their expertise is worldwide. Each of them has years of experience forecasting various ag scenarios and resulting global impacts.  One is chief economist of a major, worldwide trading company; the other is affiliated wi...

After a shocking upset in Greece’s parliamentary elections, the US dollar surged dramatically.  Soaring 5.4% in May alone, the world’s reserve currency won legions of fans among traders.  “King Dollar” was universally lauded, with everyone jumping on the strong-dollar bandwagon.  But this...

I’m tired of all the coverage of the Facebook IPO. Yet the IPO provides important lessons for investors, investment banks, the Nasdaq, and regulators concerned about the ability of the stock exchanges to handle high volume events. As everyone is aware, the Nasdaq system could not keep up with the...

Consumers understandably like to see prices for commodities decline, the more the merrier, particularly gasoline and energy costs. Many analysts also take commodity price declines as a positive for the economy, on the theory that consumers will have more spending money in their pockets, and manufact...

Commodities have been sinking like stones since late February, an unusual divergence from the rallying stock markets.  This relentless weakness has wreaked havoc on commodities sentiment, leading traders to abandon commodities stocks.  As we all try to make sense of this surreal bloodbath, one cat...

Please consider a series of chart my friend BC put together of various indices vs. the Morgan Stanley Commodity Related Equity Index ($CRX). $SPX vs. $CRX click on any chart for a sharper image $CYC vs. $CRX $TRAN vs. $CRX $DJUSRR vs. $CRX What is the Commodities Sector Seeing that the Stock M...

We are at a key turning moment in history. The actions that we will soon decide to take will be determined by the beliefs we hold. At a time like this, holding the wrong set of beliefs can destroy your wealth, sap your joy, and even prove to be life-shortening. Knowing the ‘right’ sets ...

One of the most important elements of entering a longer term trade is understanding why you are doing such. Price will go higher or lower alone is not sufficient. You need to understand the basis for such movement in price. That way as the trade evolves you can begin to understand if your thesis is ...

The long-in-the-tooth commodities correction plunged to new lows this week.  Traders were disappointed the Fed didn’t announce a new quantitative-easing campaign, so they dumped the popular commodities with a vengeance.  But realize the primary driver of the recent commodities weakness is not th...

Below are trading range charts for 10 major commodities from the Bespoke Group.  All 10 commodities are currently at or below the bottom of their trading ranges, which would suggest at the moment, a good opportunity to get in at oversold levels for investors looking to gain long-term exposure. How...

At the end of last year I made predictions (a total of 44) of what might come. So far I’ve got (at least) one right and other dead wrong. I’m worried about the one I’m wrong on. Right -Volatility is going up across the board. If you have the stomach for the swings that are coming across al...

Another fun day in the equity markets. With conviction among shorts mixed, some strong some not so and longs pretty much all in market action of late is a war but not your typical war. No longer bull versus bear it is now bear versus bear. Weak hands versus strong hands. Today the weak hands won. Th...

When the CRB and CRX commodity indexes broke support back in 2008, we experienced the “Great Escape.” Investors started selling everything in sight, and the CRX index fell 50% in a matter of months, taking stocks with it. Is GE2 (Great Escape II) about to take place? These two key co...

I’ve been asked to comment on the work of a few noted deflationists who are calling for a top in commodity prices here. Their argument is pretty clear cut: Because inflation is a function of available money plus credit (their definition), and because credit has fallen, deflation is what co...