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  • China: Manufacturing Back In Contraction
    By on February 3, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI shows China manufacturing is back in contraction, following six months of barely positive growth.  Key points Growth of output eases to marginal pace Quickest rate of job shedding since March 2009 Marked falls in input costs and output charge January data signal...
  • Emerging Markets: Emerging Crisis or Media Hysteria?
    By on February 3, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Emerging markets have been hemorrhaging this year and are now grabbing media attention. However, as the charts show, the decline in these markets and currencies has been taking place for some time now and is certainly not a sudden development. Question is: does the drop in these markets now present...
  • China: The Impact Of Reform On Growth
    By on February 1, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I got a lot of feedback from my January 5 blog entry because of my argument that the implementation of the reforms proposed in the Third Plenum all but guarantees that growth rates in China will slow down. For that reason I thought it might make sense for me to explain a little more carefully wh...
  • What Blows Up First? Part III: Subprime Countries
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the reasons the rich countries’ excessive money creation hasn’t ignited a generalized inflation is that today’s global economy is, well, global. When the Fed dumps trillions of dollars into the US banking system, that liquidity is free to flow wherever it wants. And in the past few year...
  • Emerging Market Contagion Spreads
    By on January 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Argentina Institutes 50% Tax on Internet Purchases; Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup Yesterday, Argentina devalued the Peso hoping to halt further declines in its currency reserves. Markets had seen this coming as charts of the Peso vs. the US dollar show. Peso...
  • Will Hard Landing Concerns For China Return?
    By on January 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    We had all probably forgotten about the concerns a couple of years ago that the world’s second largest economy, China, might be in for a hard landing into a recession. The talk faded away as its economy stabilized. However, its stock market remained a disbeliever. Having recovered only 50% of its ...
  • China and India: Two Economic Powder-Kegs Ready To Bl...
    By on January 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    China and India are both powder kegs awaiting a spark for the same reason: systemic corruption. The conventional view of China and India sports not one but two pair of rose-colored glasses: Chindia (even the portmanteau word is chirpy) is the world’s engine of growth, and this rapid economic g...
  • Charting Down Under: Australian All Ordinaries Index
    By on January 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been quite some time since I’ve updated my chart of Australia’s All Ordinaries stock index. In response to a request from an Australian friend, I’ve refreshed my chart of the All Ordinaries and the overlay of my weekly world markets snapshot that includes the Australian ...
  • Singapore: Icelandic-Style Property Bubble Meltdown?
    By on January 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Several people sent me emails regarding an economic pending bust in Singapore. Given that it’s easy enough to accept or discard such ideas based on preconceived notions, I asked a friend who lives in Singapore for his comments. First, please consider the article Why Singapore’s Economy ...
  • Forecast 2014: The Killer D’s
    By on January 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It seems I’m in a constant dialogue about the markets and the economy everywhere I go. Comes with the territory. Everyone wants to have some idea of what the future holds and how they can shape their own personal version of the future within the Big Picture. This weekly letter is a large part ...
  • Global Market Negative Divergences Persist With US
    By on January 8, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    After faltering in May when the Fed first hinted it might begin to taper back its stimulus, the U.S. market recovered and has rallied further to successive new highs. Meanwhile, global markets outside the U.S. which had been tracking with the U.S. until May, on average plunged much more sharply tha...
  • What Blows Up First?. Part II: Japan
    By on January 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Of all the crazy financial stories of the past year, Japan’s might be the craziest. To recap: For two decades, successive Japanese governments have fought the deflationary effects of bursting real estate and stock bubbles with ever-larger public works programs. These prevented the collapse of the ...

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