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  • Global Markets No Longer Dragging On US Market?
    By on November 4, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the big concerns during the summer and fall months was that tumbling global markets were likely to drag the U.S. market down with them. That worry received considerable relief in the big back-to-back market gains of the last two weeks. The big weeks were across the board globally. Not many g...
  • How Much Longer Can The Global Trading System Last?
    By on October 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    My last blog entry inspired an old Brazilian friend of mine, with whom I hadn’t had any contact for years, to comment on this section of the interview: It seems to me that the US is becoming increasingly isolationist, largely because it is increasingly uncertain that the benefits to the US of a...
  • Global Bellwether: Japan’s Social Depression
    By on October 4, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Beneath the surface wealth of bullet trains, cute robots and exuberant fashions, this is the Japan few outsiders understand: the one gripped by a deepening social depression. This week I’ve highlighted the structural flaws of using GDP as a measure of “growth” and prosperity: GDP...
  • Are Japanese Equities Discounting Further QE Ahead?
    By on October 1, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In June 2012, Japan was facing a ticking time bomb of enormous debt. Given the reliable pattern we’ve seen over the years by central banks, I didn’t have to go too far out on a limb to predict “Massive Japanese Debt Monetization Is Coming – Yen to Be Devalued,” which then too...
  • China: How The Boom Unravels, One Person At A Time
    By on September 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The dashing of youthful expectations of open-ended wealth and security for everyone with a college degree is highly combustible when combined with a popping real estate bubble and systemic corruption. Those enamored of China’s ability to build empty apartments, empty malls and empty train stat...
  • China’s Market Rally Continues To Impress
    By on September 11, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    China’s breakout from a symmetrical triangle formation has been yet another example of how the direction of the breakout from such a pattern usually determines the next direction. China’s Shanghai Index broke out of the pattern to the upside in late July, and has gained 10.2% in the two months ...
  • China: What Does A ‘Good’ Adjustment Look...
    By on September 2, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have always thought that the soft landing/hard landing debate wholly misses the point when it comes to China’s economic prospects. It confuses the kinds of market-based adjustments we are likely to see in the US or Europe with the much more controlled process we see in China. Instead of a h...
  • Japan Calls For More Stimulus As Household Spending S...
    By on September 1, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Consumer spending in Japan slumped in June because of a tax hike pushed through by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. Economists claimed it would be temporary and spending would quickly recover thanks to inflation. Let’s take a look at what actually happened. Japanese Household Spending Slumps 5.9% Ya...
  • Variable-Rate World, Part IV: Japanese Home Buyers Up...
    By on August 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Everyone knows that Japan deeply is in debt and one way or another is going to suffer for it. But for those who thought the story couldn’t get any worse, well, the creativity of the financial repressors never ceases to amaze. It turns out that, in addition to a government that borrows way too much...
  • China: New Yuan Loans and Shadow Banking Collapse
    By on August 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A major alarm bell just rang in China with the release of July credit figures according to Macro Business Australia. Chinese Credit Just Collapsed and shadow banking with it. Here are a couple of charts. Yuan Loans New yuan loans were 385.2 bn versus 780.0 bn expected and prior was 1080. Shadow ...
  • Japan GDP Plunges 6.8%. Consumption Down 19.2%. Priva...
    By on August 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In the wake of an inane sales tax hike Japan’s GDP Shrinks 6.8%, Most Since 2011  Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 6.8 percent in the three months through June, the Cabinet Office said. That was less than the median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a 7 percent...
  • China: Transformation or Bust
    By on August 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even moreso than the latest Federal Reserve press release or fluctuation in the Dow (although you should pay attention). I believe China is the single biggest risk to world economic equilibrium, even larger than Japan or Europe. This wee...
  • Your Best Market Bets in Europe and Asia Right Now!
    By on August 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Interview: Our global markets expert Chris Carolan talks opportunities across Europe and Asia By Elliott Wave International Enjoy this 7-minute interview with Elliott Wave International’s global opportunities expert Chris Carolan. You will learn where Chris sees the best market opportunities u...
  • China’s Market Finally Looks Like A Buy!
    By on July 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Is China’s economy, the second largest in the world, a disaster coming down to a hard landing, which has been the popular forecast for four or five years now? Or is it merely slowing from unsustainable double-digit growth of more than 12% a few years ago, to a more reasonable and sustainable pace?...
  • Happy Markets In An Unhappy World!
    By on July 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The old Dickens quote “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” is pretty much always applicable to a world as big and complex as this one. But lately, as the disparity between financial markets (best of times) and geopolitics (worst) has grown to almost comical proportions, Dickens ...
  • China: Why Bad Debt Cannot Simply Be Socialized
    By on July 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Once again I am going to discuss debt, and my discussion will be mainly conceptual. I suspect that many of my regular readers might wonder why I keep returning to this subject – and, often enough, keep saying the same things. The reason is because while debt plays a key role in understanding th...

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