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  • China: Transformation or Bust
    By on August 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    China continues to be front and center on my list of concerns, even moreso than the latest Federal Reserve press release or fluctuation in the Dow (although you should pay attention). I believe China is the single biggest risk to world economic equilibrium, even larger than Japan or Europe. This wee...
  • Your Best Market Bets in Europe and Asia Right Now!
    By on August 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Interview: Our global markets expert Chris Carolan talks opportunities across Europe and Asia By Elliott Wave International Enjoy this 7-minute interview with Elliott Wave International’s global opportunities expert Chris Carolan. You will learn where Chris sees the best market opportunities u...
  • China’s Market Finally Looks Like A Buy!
    By on July 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Is China’s economy, the second largest in the world, a disaster coming down to a hard landing, which has been the popular forecast for four or five years now? Or is it merely slowing from unsustainable double-digit growth of more than 12% a few years ago, to a more reasonable and sustainable pace?...
  • Happy Markets In An Unhappy World!
    By on July 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The old Dickens quote “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” is pretty much always applicable to a world as big and complex as this one. But lately, as the disparity between financial markets (best of times) and geopolitics (worst) has grown to almost comical proportions, Dickens ...
  • China: Why Bad Debt Cannot Simply Be Socialized
    By on July 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Once again I am going to discuss debt, and my discussion will be mainly conceptual. I suspect that many of my regular readers might wonder why I keep returning to this subject – and, often enough, keep saying the same things. The reason is because while debt plays a key role in understanding th...
  • India’s Equity Bull Market: Who Foresaw It In O...
    By on June 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This chart tells you everything you need to know about the opportunities that financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International (EWI) sees in India’s stock market: A multidecade bull market began in Indian stocks in the year 2003. Even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, EWI for...
  • China: The Four Stages Of Growth
    By on June 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From the early 1980s until now China has grown at a pace not matched since the four decades Argentina enjoyed before the First World War. In spite of some fairly goofy attempts a few years ago, however, to characterize China during this period as having followed a set of policies called the “Be...
  • China: No Money Down Mortgages Another Sign of Gigant...
    By on June 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    China bulls point out that that home prices in China are based on fundamentals and 30% down payments are proof there is no real estate bubble. In reality, much of those “cash” down payments are borrowed in various ways in China’s shadow banking system, now estimated at $7 trillion...
  • Indian Stocks: You Want a REAL Opportunity? Know WHEN...
    By on May 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Why the Nifty and many other emerging market stocks screamed “Buy!” three months ago From Elliott Wave International’s February Asian-Pacific Financial Forecast (published Feb. 7): …Bloomberg reports that “more than $7 billion flowed from ETFs investing in developing...
  • 3 Effective Tools for Navigating International Market...
    By on May 24, 2014 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    So far this year, Indian stocks are up 15%. The S&P 500 is up less than 3%. Yes, India’s SENSEX would have earned you 5 times more than the S&P — and it’s only May. Want to know what’s next for India? Want to see other “hot” overseas markets? Who wouldn...
  • The Rise of China and Decline of Japan
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From this item the other day at the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog comes the graphic below from a recent IMF study that shows how the rest of Asia has become increasingly dependent upon China, rather than Japan, for exports. In cases such as Australia and New Zealand, the change is...
  • Housing Starts In China Plunge 25%
    By on May 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Reports of the pending collapse of China property bubble have circulated for years, including some on this blog. To date, each slowdown was soon followed by another boom to still higher prices. Here we are again, in another slowdown.  China Housing Starts Market Cools, Sales Volume Dries Up The Ne...
  • EM Carry Trade Looking Vulnerable
    By on May 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last year, post-taper tantrum, the story was all collapsing BRIC walls and emerging-market doom. This year the so-called “fragile five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa – the countries that were most vulnerable last year, are looking downright robust. Since their January ...
  • Deflation Shock Coming?
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    While the US is celebrating a (supposed) recovery, other big parts of the global financial system are behaving as if some sort of deflationary crash is just around the corner. In Europe, for instance, interest rates are not just declining, they’re plunging. From a recent Sober Look blog: The Unpr...
  • Why a Savings Glut Does Not Increase Savings
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings. Here, for example, is a recent piece by one of my favorite economists, Barry Eichengreen: Ther...
  • China: Understanding The Math Behind PPP Calculations...
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A new PPP study complied by the World Bank has generated some pretty excited and, to some, alarming headlines about the new world order. There has been limited reference to this in the Chinese press, for reasons I will discuss later, but here is the Financial Times on the subject: The US is o...