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» Asian Markets

  • 3 Effective Tools for Navigating International Market...
    By on May 24, 2014 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    So far this year, Indian stocks are up 15%. The S&P 500 is up less than 3%. Yes, India’s SENSEX would have earned you 5 times more than the S&P — and it’s only May. Want to know what’s next for India? Want to see other “hot” overseas markets? Who wouldn...
  • The Rise of China and Decline of Japan
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From this item the other day at the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog comes the graphic below from a recent IMF study that shows how the rest of Asia has become increasingly dependent upon China, rather than Japan, for exports. In cases such as Australia and New Zealand, the change is...
  • Housing Starts In China Plunge 25%
    By on May 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Reports of the pending collapse of China property bubble have circulated for years, including some on this blog. To date, each slowdown was soon followed by another boom to still higher prices. Here we are again, in another slowdown.  China Housing Starts Market Cools, Sales Volume Dries Up The Ne...
  • EM Carry Trade Looking Vulnerable
    By on May 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last year, post-taper tantrum, the story was all collapsing BRIC walls and emerging-market doom. This year the so-called “fragile five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa – the countries that were most vulnerable last year, are looking downright robust. Since their January ...
  • Deflation Shock Coming?
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    While the US is celebrating a (supposed) recovery, other big parts of the global financial system are behaving as if some sort of deflationary crash is just around the corner. In Europe, for instance, interest rates are not just declining, they’re plunging. From a recent Sober Look blog: The Unpr...
  • Why a Savings Glut Does Not Increase Savings
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings. Here, for example, is a recent piece by one of my favorite economists, Barry Eichengreen: Ther...
  • China: Understanding The Math Behind PPP Calculations...
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A new PPP study complied by the World Bank has generated some pretty excited and, to some, alarming headlines about the new world order. There has been limited reference to this in the Chinese press, for reasons I will discuss later, but here is the Financial Times on the subject: The US is o...
  • Top Chinese Cities Discounting Property
    By on April 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Australia Macro Business Blog notes Tier 1 Chinese Cities Discounting Property  Prices and volumes are falling in Beijing and real estate agents are started to drum up sales by delisting homes listed at high prices. Lots of homes listed online now show price cuts, and volumes have picked up re...
  • China Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months
    By on March 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months. The overall PMI index, new orders, and production were all lower. Key points Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.1 in March (48.5 in February). Eight-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index ...
  • China’s Minsky Moment?
    By on March 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China. China has run up a huge debt, and the payments are coming due. They seem to be proactive, but will it be enough? How much risk do they pose for the global ...
  • Economic Consequences Of Income Inequality
    By on March 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A lot of things have happened in China since my last entry – in the FX markets, in the banking system, in the announcements of default, and in the continuing lowering of growth expectations – but for all the turmoil, as I see it nothing has happened that was unexpected and that has not been d...
  • Japan’s Amazing Market Drama: New Update
    By on March 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been quite a while since my last close look at key Japanese market and bond data. The amazing rally in the Nikkei 225 hit its interim high at the end of December, up 99.6% from its interim low in November of 2011. The steroid effect of massive monetary intervention subsequently evolved in...

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