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» Asian Markets

  • Deflation Shock Coming?
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    While the US is celebrating a (supposed) recovery, other big parts of the global financial system are behaving as if some sort of deflationary crash is just around the corner. In Europe, for instance, interest rates are not just declining, they’re plunging. From a recent Sober Look blog: The Unpr...
  • Why a Savings Glut Does Not Increase Savings
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings. Here, for example, is a recent piece by one of my favorite economists, Barry Eichengreen: Ther...
  • China: Understanding The Math Behind PPP Calculations...
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A new PPP study complied by the World Bank has generated some pretty excited and, to some, alarming headlines about the new world order. There has been limited reference to this in the Chinese press, for reasons I will discuss later, but here is the Financial Times on the subject: The US is o...
  • Top Chinese Cities Discounting Property
    By on April 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Australia Macro Business Blog notes Tier 1 Chinese Cities Discounting Property  Prices and volumes are falling in Beijing and real estate agents are started to drum up sales by delisting homes listed at high prices. Lots of homes listed online now show price cuts, and volumes have picked up re...
  • China Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months
    By on March 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI shows Output Contracts at Quickest Pace in 18 Months. The overall PMI index, new orders, and production were all lower. Key points Flash China Manufacturing PMI™ at 48.1 in March (48.5 in February). Eight-month low. Flash China Manufacturing Output Index ...
  • China’s Minsky Moment?
    By on March 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In speeches and presentations since the end of last year, I have been saying that I think the biggest macro problem in the world today is China. China has run up a huge debt, and the payments are coming due. They seem to be proactive, but will it be enough? How much risk do they pose for the global ...
  • Economic Consequences Of Income Inequality
    By on March 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A lot of things have happened in China since my last entry – in the FX markets, in the banking system, in the announcements of default, and in the continuing lowering of growth expectations – but for all the turmoil, as I see it nothing has happened that was unexpected and that has not been d...
  • Japan’s Amazing Market Drama: New Update
    By on March 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s been quite a while since my last close look at key Japanese market and bond data. The amazing rally in the Nikkei 225 hit its interim high at the end of December, up 99.6% from its interim low in November of 2011. The steroid effect of massive monetary intervention subsequently evolved in...
  • China: Shanghai Composite Index Reaches Tipping Point...
    By on March 12, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Is it important what one sixth of the worlds population does? I believe its worth paying attention too for sure! The Shanghai index has had a rough go of it since the highs of 2009, losing over half its value. So far this large decline HAS NOT seemed to impact the majority of stock index’s in ...
  • China: Don’t Lose Sight Of Relentless Long-Term Gro...
    By on March 11, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The world’s focus has been on China’s slowing economy over the last few years. Given its huge population and importance as a consumer of the world’s goods, as well as the holder of a large amount of U.S. bonds and other debt, concerns are that a hard landing in China would have a devastating e...
  • International Markets Topping, But Not Yet Bearish
    By on March 9, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    If you happen to follow the major international markets, then you might also be aware that they tend to trend together – not only in terms of price, but also in terms of their technical internal condition. In general, most of the major international markets are now topping, some have already t...
  • Will Emerging Markets Come Back?
    By on March 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I don’t often make reference to these kinds of things in my blog, but Saturday’s terrorist attack in the Kunming train station – in which 29 innocent people were hacked to death (the toll was especially high among the elderly who were unable to run away quickly enough from the killers) – fi...
  • China Manufacturing Deteriorates On Weak Demand
    By on March 5, 2014 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    The HSBC Purchasing Managers’ China PMI Index shows modest deterioration of business conditions in February.   Key points Both output and new orders decline for the first time since July 2013 Payroll numbers are cut at fastest rate since March 2009 Solid reduction of output charges Chinese man...
  • Jakobsen Warns of Global Economic Vacuum
    By on February 28, 2014 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark, sent an interesting email yesterday regarding China, Germany, the European debt crisis, and equity prices. Steen is one of the speakers at Wine Country Conference II, May 1-2 in Sonoma, California. What follows is from Steen, I dispense with ...
  • China, Copper and FCX Set To Fall Hard?
    By on February 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Shanghai Index, Copper and Freeport McMoran (FCX) look to be forming large descending triangle patterns. If you are unfamiliar with this pattern please read about them here  Bottom line to this pattern, a break of support suggests a decline, the size of the triangle!   CLICK ON CHART TO ENL...
  • All The Home Prices In China
    By on February 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Reuters reports that efforts to slow credit growth and other measures taken by the Chinese government have finally succeeded in slowing the rate of growth in property values as new home prices in 70 major cities rose 9.6 percent in January from a year ago, down from 9.9 percent the month prior and...

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