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Weekend Reading: Correction Over As ‘Trump Hope’ Remains

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    May 29, 2017

    Over the last couple of months, I have repeatedly discussed what has been possibly the most “boring” market ever. That was until the previous Wednesday when the market deciding to take a quick “road trip” to the 50-dma. 

    It didn’t last long.

    The market promptly went back to sleep in a light volume flotation (note decline in volume during advance) back to old highs. Yesterday, after multiple attempts, the market was finally able to muster a breakout above 2400 as “hopes and dreams” of “Trump tax cuts” once again took the lead over worries of “impeachment.” 

    While on a short-term basis, the bullish bias continues, which keeps portfolios invested, for now, the intermediate-term (weekly) trends also remain within the confines of the bullish trend from the lows of 2016. However, the “alert” signal still remains from a very high level as markets push back into extreme overbought terrain. This suggests that upside is somewhat limited as there has not been enough of a correction to alleviate more extreme conditions.

    Importantly, as noted on Tuesday, bonds aren’t buying the breakout:

    “Lastly, despite stocks pushing near all-time highs, the bond market continues to flirt with levels close to 2%. The continued move to “risk off” holdings, despite a rising stock market, suggests that ultimately either stocks OR bonds will be wrong. Historically, bonds have tended to be right more often than not.”

    Economic data is not buying it either, as data continues to come in softer than expected from new and existing home sales, to autos, to inventories.

    Either the stock market is right and everything is going to play “catch up,” or it’s not.

    While we remain long-biased in equities currently, we continue to remain wary of the underlying deterioration in both market and economic data.

    Yes, anything is certainly possible. It just usually isn’t. 

    In the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Lance Roberts – Real Investment Advice

    After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; Lance has pretty much “been there and done that” at one point or another. His common sense approach has appealed to audiences for over a decade and continues to grow each and every week.

    Real Investment Advice: Bringing the complex world of politics, economics, investing and personal financial wealth building to you in simple, easy and informative way.

    Real Investment Advice is the home of the daily blog and weekly newsletter from Lance Roberts, Chief Portfolio Strategist for Clarity Financial. If you want to understand how money and the economy really work, this is your place to start.


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