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SPX Snapshot: Modest Loss Follows Jackson Hole Drama

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    August 27, 2016

    This morning’s Second Estimate of Q2 GDP at 1.1% was a ho-hum event in advance of Fed Chair Yellen speech at Jackson Hole. And indeed the intraday range volatility of today’s session was at the 70th percentile of the 165 market days of 2016 and the widest in 37 sessions. The S&P 500 opened higher, rallied with the opening of her speech, and then sold off sharply during with Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer’s suggestion that a couple of rate hikes this year were possible. The index bounced back later in the afternoon to its -0.16% Friday close. The index is down 0.68% for the week.

    The yield on the 10-year note closed at at 1.62%, up four basis points from the previous close.

    Here is a snapshot of past five sessions in the S&P 500.

    S&P 500

    Here is weekly chart of the index, which set its most recent record high nine sessions ago on August 15th. Volume has been quite light for the past three weeks.

    S&P 500

    A Perspective on Drawdowns

    Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

    S&P 500 Drawdowns

    Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted.

    S&P 500 MAs

    Here is a linear scale version of the same chart with the 50- and 200-day moving averages.

    S&P 500 MAs

    A Perspective on Volatility

    For a sense of the correlation between the closing price and intraday volatility, the chart below overlays the S&P 500 since 2007 with the intraday price range. We’ve also included a 20-day moving average to help identify trends in volatility.

    S&P 500 Snapshot

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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