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July 2016 | Elliott Wave Analytics
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Gold-Stock-Benchmark BattleBy Syndicated Publisher on July 31, 2016 | No CommentsThe gold-mining stocks have enjoyed enormous gains in their young bull market this year, trouncing all other sectors. Naturally this radical outperformance has led to surging popular interest in this usually-obscure contrarian sector. New investors are wondering how to best track its performance...
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Could this Rally be a Head-Fake?By Syndicated Publisher on July 27, 2016 | No CommentsIf there’s nothing supporting this rally but euphoric sentiment arising from orchestrated buying, any eruption of reality will reveal the rally as a head-fake. Let’s say you wanted to engineer a stock market rally that triggered every technical “buy” signal and wiped out thos...
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Technically Speaking: Red Flag UpdateBy Syndicated Publisher on July 27, 2016 | No CommentsLast week I was on my annual family vacation which didn’t afford me the opportunity to publish my normal weekly commentary and portfolio model updates (subscribe for free e-delivery). What is interesting, however, is that relatively little has changed during that time frame. For continuity, let ...
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NYSE Margin Debt and the MarketBy Syndicated Publisher on July 26, 2016 | No CommentsThe NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through June. We’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back t...
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2007 All Over Again, Part V: Banking Crisis ImminentBy Syndicated Publisher on July 26, 2016 | No CommentsOur good friend Michael Pollaro just sent a chart from the St. Louis Fed that shows the US drifting back into yet another banking crisis. The green line tracks fluctuations in the US yield curve, defined as the difference in yield between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries. When the yield curve is steep...
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Market Cap to GDP: An Updated Look at the Buffett Val...By Syndicated Publisher on July 25, 2016 | No CommentsMarket Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The four valuation...
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Silver Bull Faces CorrectionBy Syndicated Publisher on July 25, 2016 | No CommentsSilver’s young bull market got off to a typically-slow start, lagging gold’s own new bull. But recently the white metal surged to catch up in a record summer rally. That left silver very overbought and facing near-term correction risks led by a record futures selling overhang and weak late-s...
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Gold’s Record Selling OverhangBy Syndicated Publisher on July 25, 2016 | No CommentsGold’s mighty new bull market this year has been amazing, the result of heavy buying by investors and speculators alike. But these latter traders have pumped so much capital into gold futures that this metal now faces a record selling overhang. Since the hyper-leveraged nature of futures tradi...
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Market Remains Overvalued, Up Slightly from Last Mont...By Syndicated Publisher on July 22, 2016 | No CommentsHere is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)...
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Technically Speaking: Pushing ExtremesBy Syndicated Publisher on July 21, 2016 | No CommentsYesterday, I discussed the importance of risk management and reviewed the 15-rules that drive my portfolio management discipline. I needed to lay that groundwork for today’s discussion of why those rules need to be implemented right now. As shown in the chart below, the market has currently surge...
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Gold Stocks’ Record Summer SurgeBy Syndicated Publisher on July 15, 2016 | No CommentsThe red-hot gold miners’ stocks have continued blasting higher this summer on heavy ETF buying by professional money managers. Funds’ ongoing big capital inflows into this market-leading sector have overcome its usual summer seasonal weakness. While gold stocks’ odds-defying record early-s...
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Technically Speaking: Breakout Or Market Melt-Up?By Syndicated Publisher on July 15, 2016 | No CommentsBack in April, as the market surged off of the February lows, I discussed that the “Bear Market Was Over…For Now.”To wit: “Over the last couple of weeks, in both the daily blog and weekly newsletter, I have been laying out the technical case for a breakout above the downtrend. Such a brea...
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NYSE Margin Debt Decreased in MayBy Syndicated Publisher on July 9, 2016 | No CommentsThe NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through May. We’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to...
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Can You Imagine The Fed Raising Interest Rates In Thi...By Syndicated Publisher on July 9, 2016 | No CommentsTwo short months ago it was generally expected that US interest rates would rise for the balance of the year — a move made possible by steady economic growth and general global stability. Here’s a representative piece of reporting from early April: WSJ Survey: Most Economists Expect Next Fed Ra...
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Our Future Is (Literally) Crumbling Before Our EyesBy Syndicated Publisher on July 8, 2016 | No CommentsThe sorts of predicaments the world faces — ranging from over $200 trillion in debt, to our unsustainable addiction to fossil fuels, to our over-stressed ecosystems — all require that we get deadly serious about confronting them ASAP, and make difficult decisions and trade-offs. However,...
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Technically Speaking: The Bond Ratio WarningBy Syndicated Publisher on July 7, 2016 | No CommentsWith the markets closed on Monday for the annual “Independence Day” holiday, the technical analysis from the past weekend’s missive still holds. As I stated: “I discussed the likelihood of Central Banker’s leaping into action to stabilize the financial markets following the British refere...