With the Federal Reserve’s first rate-hike cycle in nearly a decade looming, traders are working overtime trying to divine its timing and impact on the markets.  They are closely monitoring the same employment and inflation data the Fed will use to start tightening.  But there’s another little...

I recently quoted the importance of the current profits “recession” as it relates to potential market outcomes for investors. “To me, the pre-conditions for this profits recession speak to downside risk, both for risk assets and for the real economy. None of the data speaks to rec...

In last week’s update, I discussed the markets entrance into the “Seasonally Strong”period of the year to wit: “The table below shows the statistics of the seasonally strong/weak periods of the S&P 500 from 1957 to present using the data from the Federal Reserve (FRED). ...

Silver is finally showing some signs of life after suffering a dark year.  The epically-bearish sentiment that bludgeoned this metal to major secular lows is cracking, with a strong rebound rally now underway.  And this recent buying is likely just the earliest vanguard, as silver remains deeply u...

In last week’s update, I discussed the fact the recent oversold condition of the market, combined with a massive short interest position, provided the ingredients necessary for a strong reflexive rally from the recent lows. To wit: “While last week’s FOMC minutes gave the “bu...

Despite gold blasting higher this month, this metal remains deeply out of favor among investors.  They have shunned it for years thanks to extreme central-bank money printing levitating stock markets.  This slayed demand for alternative investments, led by gold.  But the resulting radical underin...

In May of 2014, the Federal Reserve began discussing a newly designed labor market index to help support their claim that employment conditions in the U.S were improving. This was an important facility for the Fed which needed support to raise interest rates. My good friend Doug Short has a complete...

In last week’s update, I discussed the short-term oversold condition that existed at that time. To wit: “As you can see, the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined with the very oversold conditions, led to a frantic “short covering” rally back to previou...

When I was growing up my father, probably much like yours, had pearls of wisdom that he would drop along the way. It wasn’t until much later in life that I learned that such knowledge did not come from books, but through experience. One of my favorite pieces of “wisdom” was: ̶...

This past week saw the markets rebound off their lows which has brought the “bulls” rushing back claiming the correction is over. However, is that really the case? As I questioned earlier this week: “As you can see, the markets did retest the late August lows, and when combined wit...

The left-for-dead gold stocks have rallied dramatically this past week, surging to a major breakout.  This pivotal technical event reveals the hyper-bearish psychology plaguing this sector in recent months is dissipating, paving the way for investment capital to return.  And given the fundamentall...

Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update on a monthly basis. The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)...

Traders today universally believe inflation is dead, that there is no persistent decline in the purchasing power of money.  That’s what government price indexes around the world are indicating.  But this false notion is one of recent years’ main Fed-conjured illusions.  Price inflation is the...

In last week’s update, I discussed the short-term oversold condition that existed at that time. To wit: “As you will notice, the reflexive rally, and subsequent failure, have tracked the original predictions very closely up to the point. With the market once again very oversold on a sho...

In January, I did a chart analysis of the markets suggesting that being overly optimistic going into 2015 could be dangerous. “As we enter into 2015, analyst calls for a continued “bull market” advance have never been louder. There have been a litany of articles written recently ...