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SPX Snapshot: A Modest Loss on the Smallest Trading Range of 2015

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    May 23, 2015

    With the three-day Memorial Day weekend in the immediate offing, the S&P 500 spent the day in semi-vacation mode. The intraday high-low trading range of 0.29% was the smallest of the year. The peak coincided, not surprisingly, with Janet Yellen’s “Outlook for the Economy” speech at 1 PM. In her speech, Ms. Yellen discounted economic projections with a rather stunning self-abnegation, especially so in coming from a Fed Chair.

    “Of course, the outlook for the economy, as always, is highly uncertain. I am describing the outlook that I see as most likely, but based on many years of making economic projections, I can assure you that any specific projection I write down will turn out to be wrong, perhaps markedly so.”   [bolding added by us]

    The microscopic size of that intraday high, 0.06%, suggests that the fast-trade was essentially paralyzed by the remarkable Fed candor. The S&P 500 then traded sideways near the flatline, falling in the final minutes to its -0.22% close at its intraday low.

    The official yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.21%, up two bps from the previous close and seven bps from last Friday’s close.

    Here is a 15-minute chart of the week.

    Here is a daily chart of the SPY ETF, which gives a better sense of investor participation. Today’s volume was the lowest of 2015. The same was true for the index itself.

    A Perspective on Drawdowns

    Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.


    Click for a larger image

    For a longer-term perspective, here is a charts base on daily closes since the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.


    Click for a larger image

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.
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