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SPX Goes Nowhere on Weak Retail Sales and Treasury Yield Confusion

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    May 14, 2015

    The S&P 500 got off to a confused start this morning. The 8:30 release of weak April Retail Sales data sent futures lower, but the early message from plunging Treasury yields was a head scratcher. The index popped at the open, hitting its 0.53% intraday high about fifteen minutes later. It then traded back to the flat line, where it hovered through the afternoon except for a bit of selling in the early final hour before closing with a fractional -0.03% loss.

    The official yield on the 10-year note closed at 2.27%, down one bp from yesterday. However, the intraday action< was again rather volatile.

    Here is a 15-minute chart of the past five sessions.

    On a daily chart we see that volume remained on the light side.

    A Perspective on Drawdowns

    Here’s a snapshot of selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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    For a longer-term perspective, here is a charts base on daily closes since the all-time high prior to the Great Recession.

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    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.


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