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April 2015 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • The Real Financial Crisis That Is Looming
    By on April 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    There is a financial crisis on the horizon. It is a crisis that all the Central Bank interventions in the world cannot cure. It is a financial crisis that will continue to change the economic landscape of America for decades to come. No, I am not talking about the next Lehman event or the next fina...
  • Q1 GDP Advance Estimate Surprises to the Downside
    By on April 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Advance Estimate for Q1 GDP, to one decimal, came in at 0.2 percent, a substantial drop from the 2.2 percent of the previous quarter. Today’s number was a disappointment for most economic forecasts, which were looking for a higher Advance Estimate. For example, both Investing.com and Brief...
  • Do The Financial Markets Now Control Everything?
    By on April 30, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The entire economic and political structure is now dependent in one way or another on the continued expansion of financial markets. The financial markets don’t just dominate the economy–they now control everything. In 1999, the BBC broadcast a 4-part documentary by Adam Curtis, The Mayfa...
  • Margin Debt: A Variety Of Measures Suggest Caution
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, I discussed the extreme levels of nominal margin debt in the financial markets which generated a quite extensive list of questions and comments. Many of the comments suggested different methods of analyzing margin debt that I thought I would share with you. Let’s start with yesterda...
  • Japan Hits The Easy Money Wall. We May Be Next.
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Japan, whose monetary policy is by far the world’s most expansive, just reported retail sales that soared on the wings of all that newly-created currency. Just kidding. Retail sales tanked: Japan Retail Sales Slump Flashes Warning Signal for Kuroda (Bloomberg) – Japan’s retail sales fell in M...
  • The Real Fed Funds Rates Since 1971
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    As Federal Reserve officials (i.e., the most powerful group of unelected policy makers in the world) gather to discuss if and when they should raise short-term interest rates, it’s worth reviewing how we got here from the perspective of real interest rates. Since this chart hadn’t been updated ...
  • A Surprising Decline in Consumer Confidence
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through April 17. The headline number of 95.2 was a substantial drop from the revised March final reading of 101.4, a slight revision from 101.3. Today’s number was well below the Investing....
  • Natural Gas Settles At 3-Year Lows
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Crude oil has been the center of energy-related headlines since 2H14 when it started its dramatic ‘normalizatin’ process while everybody (us included) seems to have forgotten about natural gas.  So we thought we should give an update on natural gas as well. Market Watch reported that Ma...
  • Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Remained Soft in April
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Fifth District includes Virginia, Maryland, the Carolinas, the District of Columbia and most of West Virginia. The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond is the region’s connection to the nation’s Central Bank. The complete data series behind the latest Richmond Fed manufacturing report (a...
  • Vehicle Miles Traveled: Our Evolving Behavior
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through February. “Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.8% (6.1 billion vehicle miles) for February 2015 as compared with February 2014.” The less vol...
  • Bio-Tech Stocks: The Power of Context
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Since joining Elliott Wave International in 1993, the editor of our Trader’s Classroom, Jeffrey Kennedy, has traveled to at least a dozen countries, teaching seminars to some of the best professional and individual traders. Through April 28, you have a free chance to learn Jeffrey’s trad...
  • 6th Straight Negative New Orders For Dallas Fed Manuf...
    By on April 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    New orders in the Dallas Fed manufacturing survey came in negative for the sixth straight month yesterday. Weakness was expected due to collapse in oil prices, but the business activity range number was lower than any Bloomberg Consensus estimate. Bloomberg Consensus .. .. .. .. Texas Manufac...
  • Bull Market Most Overbought/Leveraged In History
    By on April 28, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, I stated the market was approaching a fairly important decision point. To wit: “As shown in the chart below, the market has been remained trapped in a tightening pattern of higher lows and lower highers. This type of action is like the compression of spring. In the next few days, th...
  • US Stocks Turning Chinese?
    By on April 28, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Much has been made of the leveraged speculative frenzy by undereducated Chinese day traders halfway around the world but, based on this update on NYSE margin debt from Doug Short late last week, U.S. lenders (and markets) are quickly catching up. Of course, this comes at a time when money continues...
  • Has The Fed Already Stayed Too Long At The Party?
    By on April 28, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Jim welcomes back Brian Pretti CFA, managing editor of ContraryInvestor.com. Brian and Jim discuss Federal Reserve policy, and the implications of “the re-pricing of credit”. Brian believes the Fed may have kept rates at essentially zero for too long, and it’s now boxed in a corner. They look...
  • 2010 Flash Crash Arrest Motivated By Greed
    By on April 28, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Whistleblower Program The past week we have made markets safer by arresting the dangerous flash crash villain who was a threat to national security and the health of the entire financial market system. Like I always say when in doubt follow the money trail in identifying motives and what is really ...

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