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January 2015 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Investing Thoughts On Gold, Dollar And Other Stuff
    By on January 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The following notes are from the Sector Analysis section of the weekly e-letter I publish each week. While I generally cover the major market indices and individual sectors of the S&P 500, I thought I would share with you a few things that have caught my attention as of late. If you have any que...
  • Central Banks and Economic Reports Keeping Bull Marke...
    By on January 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    At the age of 72 months, the U.S. bull market may be long in the tooth. Stocks may be significantly over-priced based on the CAPE-10 P/E ratio, and Warren Buffett’s favorite measurement, the ratio of market capitalization to GDP. Plunging oil prices, threatening deflation, and weak global economie...
  • ECB Sets Up Biggest Contrarian Play of 2015
    By on January 29, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Economics is extremely useful as a form of employment for economists.” “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.” — John Kenneth Galbraith Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of great economists out there who do a wonderful job at forecasting the ma...
  • When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt
    By on January 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Central banks around the globe have taken us all into uncharted territory, where the possible paths boil down to a binary outcome: either it all works out or it doesn’t. Unfortunately, the ‘it all works out’ outcome has a very low probability of actually happening; so the binary outcome isn...
  • China: Inverted Balance Sheets and Doubling Financial...
    By on January 27, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    On Tuesday the National Bureau of Statistics released China’s 2014 GDP growth numbers and reported growth consistent with what the government has been widely promoting as the “new normal”. According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 63,646.3 billio...
  • This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis – E...
    By on January 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Today the European Central Bank acknowledged that the currency it manages is being sucked into a deflationary vortex. It responded in the usual way with, in effect, a massive devaluation. Eurozone citizens have also responded predictably, by converting their unbacked, make-believe, soon-to-be-worth-...
  • Switzerland Wins As Its Central Bank Surrenders
    By on January 25, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    If anyone had any doubt how severely the global economy has been distorted by the actions of central bankers, the “surprise” announcement last week by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to no longer peg the Swiss franc to the euro should provide a moment of crystal clarity. The decision sent ...
  • Stock Traders Flock to Gold
    By on January 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold surged this week on massive buying from stock investors and speculators.  This critical group of traders and their vast pools of capital utterly abandoned gold in the past couple years.  So to see them start to flock back is a watershed event, heralding a major reversal in gold’s fortunes....
  • Who Benefits When Bubbles Burst?
    By on January 24, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Blowing speculative bubbles cannot possibly lead to organic growth because speculative bubbles fatally undermine the real economy. An astute reader recently posed an insightful question: we all know who benefits from asset bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate–owners of assets, banks, the g...
  • Has Pullback Ended or Hardly Begun?
    By on January 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week was the third straight down week. Five straight down days before yesterday’s rally. Ugly. The late strong rally was encouraging. But all the major indexes remain beneath their 50-day moving averages, and it takes more than one day to indicate an upside reversal. And although the intrada...
  • Can You Just Surrender In A Currency War?
    By on January 21, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Switzerland, as everyone knows by now, has slipped out the back door of the drunken orgy that is the modern financial system. And the other revelers are wondering if it’s time to find their own clothes and start tiptoeing towards the exit. Because the Swiss have such a big “mind share” in the ...
  • SNB: Post-Mortem
    By on January 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    The Swiss National Bank move to eliminate the 1.2 EURCHF Peg has proven to be a big market/media event.  Follows a few random thoughts on how this story played out. Caveat –  Some of this is wonkish, some guesses on my part. The Weekly FX Flows The FX market has two different types of risk profi...
  • Yen Strength Weighs on Stocks While Lifting Gold High...
    By on January 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last month I penned an article titled, “Implications for the Stock Market and Gold with a Yen Rally” in which I laid out the case for the US dollar (USD) to weaken relative to the Yen in the coming month and what the implications would be for the stock market, volatility, and gold. A key excerpt...
  • How to Tame the Volatile Financial Markets
    By on January 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Up, down, up, down; 200 points higher, 300 points lower; rinse and repeat! It isn’t easy being an investor in the U.S stock market these days. Honestly, it feels more like being in a clinical trial for mood stabilizers. Or, as the market oracle himself Warren Buffett described it in December 2...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on January 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week’s new release of the publicly available data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) puts its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 131.1, down fractionally from 130.1 the previous week. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is at -5.0, unchanged to one decimal place from the ...
  • Is This How Markets Behave Right Before They Crash?
    By on January 20, 2015 | No Comments  Comments
    When the stock market starts to behave like a roller coaster, that is a sign that a major move to the downside is right around the corner.  As I have statedrepeatedly, when the market is very calm it tends to go up.  But when the waters start getting really choppy, that is a clear indication that ...

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