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November 2014 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • NYSE Margin Debt Declines in October
    By on November 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through October. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back ...
  • Market Cap to GDP: The Buffett Valuation Indicator Re...
    By on November 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in aFortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” The four valuation ...
  • Understanding The CFNAI Components
    By on November 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, which I reported on earlier today, is based on 85 economic indicators drawn from four broad categories of data: Production and Income Employment, Unemployment, and Hours Personal Consumption and Housing Sales, Orders, and Inventories The com...
  • Most of the World Panics — Is the US Next?
    By on November 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In late October Japan, despite a year of fairly aggressive quantitative easing, dropped back into recession and concluded that even easier money was the cure for its ills. It announced a debt monetization plan of almost science-fictional proportions in which the amount of new yen to be created, as a...
  • Vehicle Miles Traveled: A Structural Change in Our Be...
    By on November 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Transportation’s Federal Highway Commission has released the latest report on Traffic Volume Trends, data through September. Travel on all roads and streets changed by 2.3% (5.6 billion vehicle miles) for September 2014 as compared with September 2013 (see report). The less v...
  • And You Thought QE Was Over?
    By on November 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A couple of weeks ago in the weekly newsletter (subscribe for free E-Delivery) I discussed the series of events behind the decline of the market in October and the subsequent surge. “The chart below shows the series of events that has propelled the markets higher in recent days as a massive sh...
  • Global Economies Will Dictate Rate Hike Timing
    By on November 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Federal Reserve spent this year winding down its $85 billion a month QE stimulus program. With that task completed, the hot topic of analysts, and concern of markets, is how soon the Fed will take the next step in moving back toward normal monetary policies. That is, when will it begin raising i...
  • US Sees Record Foreign Inflows As Economic Indicators...
    By on November 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last Friday I penned a piece looking at current supports for the U.S. stock market, one of which I argued was an influx of foreign capital into our markets (see story). On Tuesday this week the U.S. Department of Treasury released data for September confirming this and showed the largest net inflow ...
  • Orders Stagnate As Eurozone Flirts With Contraction
    By on November 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Let’s take a look at weaker than expected reports from the Eurozone in aggregate, and France and Germany in particular. France The Markit Flash France PMI shows French private sector output fell for seventh successive month. Key points: Flash France Composite Output Index rises to 48.4 (48.2 ...
  • Notes on Russia
    By on November 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Russia and its redoubtable president, Vladimir Putin, have been much in the news lately. The latest flurry came when Putin was taken out behind the woodshed at the G20 conference in Australia last weekend over his recent moves to inject more Russian troops and arms into Ukraine. For today’s Outsid...
  • Credit Markets Signaling Near-Term Caution
    By on November 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Since the S&P 500 bottomed at 1820 on October 15th, it is up roughly 12.5% and has seen only 6 down days in the last month. According to trading desks, steady growth in the U.S. and China, better-than-feared European economic data, and accommodative global central banks are the main causes for d...
  • The Abenomics Death Spiral
    By on November 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    As Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe has turned his country into a petri dish of Keynesian ideas, the trajectory of Japan’s economy has much to teach us about the wisdom of those policies. And although the warning sirens are blasting at the highest volumes imaginable, few economists can hear t...
  • Understanding Investor Anxiety: A Perspective on Dive...
    By on November 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In recent days major US stock indexes have been repeatedly hitting new highs. The S&P 500, for example, closed out October at a record level and since broken the record on eight of the past 12 sessions so far in November. Despite the market success, investor participation has been scarcely exube...
  • Do Lower Gas Prices Really Boost Consumption?
    By on November 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The recent plunge in oil prices has brought both optimism and pessimism to the economic landscape. Anyone who lives in Houston, as I do, knows that the price of oil is an important driver of the economic landscape. The plunge in oil prices in the 1980’s is a solemn memory for many Houstonians,...
  • Typical Annual Return For The Market In One Month!
    By on November 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It was just about a month ago that the market had given up all of its gains for the year. And now in just over a month, the S&P 500 has gained 13.3% from its low on October 15, and so is up 12.1% for the year. Hurray! Yahoo! The market’s favorable season and our buy signal is off to a great s...
  • Pressures On US Economy Just Increased
    By on November 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have been suggesting that the U.S. economy would likely be unable to meet current estimates of sustained and robust economic growth of 3% or more due to the global slowdown. Despite ongoing Central Bank interventions, the deflationary pressures in the Eurozone and Japan are likely to flow back to ...

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