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Housing Early Warning Stress Indicator On Rise

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    October 5, 2014

    A chart in the latest Black Knight Mortgage Monitor Release caught my eye.

    For five months, the number of properties and the percentage of properties 30-days delinquent has been on the rise (arrows added).

    click on chart for sharper image


    Key Indicators

    • The mortgage delinquency rate jumped nearly 5% in August, reaching its highest point since February.
    • The year-over-year change in 30-day delinquencies is a negative 4.8%. Another month like August would nearly reverse the year-over-year downtrend in delinquencies.
    • The inventory of  30-day delinquent homes rose by 146,000. Another month like August would reverse the year-over-year change.
    • 90-day delinquencies do not show the same ominous trend as 3-day delinquencies, but 90-day delinquencies first require 30-day delinquency then 60-day delinquency.

    So far, the 90-day stats have not rolled over, but with the 30-day uptrend this long, it likely will.
    Read more at http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2014/09/housing-early-warning-stress-indicator.html#d3PKKu1mVdZOY1XY.99

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. Sitka Pacific is an asset management firm whose goal is strong performance and low volatility, regardless of market direction.  Visit Sitka Pacific’s Account Management Page to learn more about wealth management and capital preservation strategies of Sitka Pacific.

    You are currently viewing my global economics blog which typically has commentary every day of the week. I am also a contributing “professor” on Minyanville, a community site focused on economic and financial education.  Every Thursday I do a podcast on HoweStreet and on an ad hoc basis contribute to many other sites.

    When not writing about stocks or the economy I spend a great deal of time on photography and in the garden. I have over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Some of my Wisconsin and gardening images can be seen at MichaelShedlock.com.
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