In his book The Postcatastrophe Economy, iTulip’s Eric Janszen notes that financial bubbles don’t repeat. That is, yesterday’s bubble is never tomorrow’s because hot money likes to chase the next big thing, not the last big thing. Which explains how US equities, government bonds, fine art, a...

Janet Yellen is probably sorry Ben Bernanke ever embarked on his program of the Fed providing ‘transparency’ in its decision making, and ‘forward guidance’ for markets. It was helpful and fairly easy for five years when the need for more and more stimulus to get the economy going was clear. ...

Gold stocks have plunged in September, crushed by the withering selling pressure from heavy futures shorting hammering gold.  As usual, these falling prices have kindled extreme bearishness on this left-for-dead sector.  But despite this rotten sentiment, gold stocks’ young upleg remains very mu...

I’ve updated this analysis to include yesterday’s Federal Reserve release of the 2014 Z.1 Financial Accounts for Q2. Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in a Fortune Magazine inte...

I delayed posting this monthly update until we had yesterday’s release of quarterly Fed data for calculating the Q Ratio, which I’ve discussed in more detail in the Q Ratio commentary linked below. Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I updated at the beginning of ...

I’ve updated this series to include the data in yesterday’s Federal Reserve release of the 2014 Z.1 Financial Accounts for Q2. Based on data extrapolations through the current close, the Q Ratio is 70% above its arithmetic mean and 83% above its geometric mean. The current valuation leve...

With the three fascinations of the week, the Fed’s FOMC statement, the separation vote in Scotland, and the Alibaba IPO, now history, will investors re-focus on the economy? Given what the Fed actually said in its statement, and some recent economic reports, it might be a good idea. Investors were...

Did you know that the number of gold bars being purchased by ultra-wealthy individuals has increased by 243 percent so far this year?  If stocks are just going to keep soaring, why are they doing this?  On Thursday, the Dow Jones industrial average and the S&P 500 both closed at record highs o...

In yet another sign of market over-exuberance, the Wall Street Journal reports Share Repurchases Are at Fastest Clip Since Financial Crisis. Corporations bought back $338.3 billion of stock in the first half of the year, the most for any six-month period since 2007, according to research firm Biri...

Venture capital risktaking and burn rates on cash are at levels that exceed the technology bubble in 1999. Companies that haven’t made a dime, and perhaps never will, have valuations of $10 billion more. Curiously, it’ venture capitalist Bill Gurley who Sounds Alarm on Startup Investing...

Latest Vlog Update: September 19, 2014 Here is the latest vlog, it is the latest update on our gold. Please enjoy the video!. [youtube]http://youtu.be/PV4N1o-u8Ic[/youtube] .. .. Paul Thomason Editor, Elliott Wave Analytics Images: via Flickr (licence attribution)   ...

For those understandably disgusted by the reckless expansion of the US money supply over the past six years, it’s vitally important to remember that the road to our monetary endgame is not a straight line, nor necessarily intuitive. I have long been a dollar bull, not for any over-arching rea...

Germany’s ZEW Investor Confidence Index fell from 8.6 in August to 6.9 in September. France’s Prime Minister warned that if economic and financial conditions are not reversed “in three to six months, we’ll be ‘foutu’”, which is being translated as ruined or knackered. China reported t...

Nearly a century after the fact, the Great Depression remains THE object lesson for virtually every branch of economics. To monetarists the fact that the US money supply fell by nearly a third in the 1930s illustrates the need for a central bank to maintain steady money growth. To Keynesians the Dep...

Investment Implications of a USD Breakout Should the USD break out from its 2005 to present bearish trend, we should see some significant developments in inter-market relationships. For starters, the relative performance of U.S. stocks to the MSCI World Stock Index Excluding the U.S. shows a strong ...

AFP (Agence France-Presse) recently printed an interesting piece about the current illusion of permanent liquidity.  To wit: “Loose monetary policies have created an ‘illusion of permanent liquidity’ that is spurring investors to make risky bets and push up asset prices, the Bank...