It is often stated that retail investors represent the “herd” mentality.  That, like lemmings, they tend always to do the opposite of what they should by “buying high and selling low.”  For the most part, those statements are true and have been repeatedly shown in surv...

From CNBC/Yahoo Finance: “Big money managers may be doing something retail investors aren’t – pulling money out of the market. “Last week, investors added $379 million into equity mutual funds (the kind that’s popular with retail investors) according to Thomson Reuters’ Lipper. At the...

Is the British pound overvalued? What about the Euro? The US Dollar? The Yen? Curiously, economists make that case for all of those currencies. And today, the IMF is pounding the drums with this proclamation “Overvalued” Pound Prevents Rebalancing.  The International Monetary Fund warn...

There has been an ongoing debate about market valuations and the current state of the financial markets. On one hand, the “bulls” use forward price-earnings ratios to justify current valuation levels while the the “bears” cite trailing valuations based on reportedearni...

Gold’s strong season is just getting underway, with this metal’s summer-doldrums seasonal low in place.  The past couple months’ stiff headwinds are starting to shift to fierce tailwinds, thanks to Asian demand ramping up heading into autumn.  Gold’s pronounced seasonality is very importan...

Is China’s economy, the second largest in the world, a disaster coming down to a hard landing, which has been the popular forecast for four or five years now? Or is it merely slowing from unsustainable double-digit growth of more than 12% a few years ago, to a more reasonable and sustainable pace?...

Paul LaMonica, whom I have spoken with several times, recently wrote a piece for CNN Money entitled “5 Reasons Why The Market Won’t Crash.” One of the biggest mistakes that investors make is falling prey to cognitive biases that obfuscate rising investment risks. This is why I am...

The old Dickens quote “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times” is pretty much always applicable to a world as big and complex as this one. But lately, as the disparity between financial markets (best of times) and geopolitics (worst) has grown to almost comical proportions, Dickens ...

One of the most widely followed market theories is Dow Theory, which has been around for more than 100 years. The essence of Dow Theory is to focus on confirmations or non-confirmations between the Dow Jones Transportation Average and the Dow Jones Industrial Average for assessing market trends and ...

In the most recent newsletter, I discussed this year’s rise in the markets and the fact that all of the gains have occurred during some of the historically weakest months of the year.  I also noted a few interesting facts: 100% of the year-to-date returns were contained within roughly 5...

Is China really growing at the reported 7.5% rate? I have frequently stated “no chance”. Malinvestments in housing, vacant cities, vacant malls, and roads with no traffic prove the point. Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets reiterates that view in regards to credit expansion and GD...

This week’s Outside the Box is from an old friend to regular readers. It’s time for ourQuarterly Review & Outlook from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management, who leads off this month with a helpful explanation of the relationship between the US GDP growth rate and 30-year treasury...

Elliott Wave International’s Senior Currency Strategist Jim Martens recorded this 18-minute interview on July 18. Jim, a conservative trader, likes to trade in the direction of the trend. In the interview, he uses an example in the Euro to explain how a trader can join the trend once a move ha...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.2, down from the previous week’s 136.2. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) slipped to 4.5 to 4.2. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its recession call on ...

This past week, Chairwoman Janet Yellen presented the Federal Reserve’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congressional Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. While the financial markets were closely focused on clues as to the future direction of monetary policy and rate hi...

It is normal and understandable that investor confidence grows as paper profits in a long rally or bull market pile up. It’s therefore normal and inevitable that investor sentiment will be at its most bullish for that cycle by the time a rally or bull market tops out. However, it is also true that...