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June 2014 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • The Bond Trap
    By on June 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The American financial establishment has an incredible ability to celebrate the inconsequential while ignoring the vital. Last week, while the Wall Street Journal pondered how the Fed may set interest rates three to four years in the future (an exercise that David Stockman rightly compared to deba...
  • Gold Bugs’ Hearts Are Beating Faster
    By on June 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last Thursday was the kind of day that precious metals investors have been waiting (and waiting and waiting) for. Gold and silver popped 3.5% and 4.8% respectively and the junior miners, which have been universally unloved lately, took off. Some more-or-less random examples: One day does not of cou...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on June 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 135.4, down from the previous week’s adjusted 135.7. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) is unchanged at to 4.4 (the previous week adjusted down from 4.5). ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged c...
  • Cheap Gold Stocks Breaking Out!
    By on June 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold stocks have surged dramatically in recent weeks, defying the odds to catch a serious bid.  Extreme bearishness still plagues this sector, which is certainly the most despised in all the stock markets.  So why are investors returning?  The universally-hated gold stocks are absurdly cheap, eas...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Things Bulls Should Consider!
    By on June 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This past week I wrote two articles discussing Shiller’s CAPE ratio (see here and here) and why valuations are still an important metric when it comes to making long term investments.  However, during the research process of writing that article I could not help but notice the extreme amou...
  • Biggest Story Of 2014: Return Of The Inflation Trade!
    By on June 25, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Perhaps the biggest story of 2014 for U.S. investors is the return of the inflation trade as U.S. inflation rates as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) have bottomed and accelerated over the last few months. Rising home prices and rental rates are closely tied to inflation and were projectin...
  • Is Stage Set For Markets To Again Be Smarter Than The...
    By on June 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Federal Reserve’s dual mandate, established by Congress, is to maintain economic growth, while avoiding excessive inflation. It attempts to do so by shifting back and forth between tight money policies and easy money policies, hiking or lowering interest rates, depending on whether the economy...
  • A Long-Term Look At Inflation
    By on June 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The June Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released yesterday puts the May year-over-year inflation rate at 2.13%, a 19-month high, but well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 11% below its 10-year moving average. For a comparison of headline inflation w...
  • Shiller’s CAPE: Is It Really Just BS?
    By on June 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In late stage bull market cycles, the inevitable bashing of long term valuation metrics comes to full fruition. In the late 90’s if you were buying shares of Berkshire Hathaway stock it was mocked as “driving Dad’s old Pontiac.”  In 2007, valuation metrics were being dismi...
  • Musical Chairs at the FOMC
    By on June 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    “You can’t tell the players without a program. Get your program here!” yelled the stadium vendors of my youth. In today’s Outside the Box I bring you an excellent piece of Fed watching by Nouriel Roubini and colleagues, a “program” of the new Fed members and where they rank on the hawk...
  • Countdown To Another Market Peak Has Begun
    By on June 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Perhaps one of the most influential books I’ve read over the last several years is “The Era of Uncertainty”, which was co-authored by Francois Trahan—voted as the #1 Portfolio Strategist in 2013 by Institutional Investor. In the book, Francois shows how the Fed Funds Rate no longer serves a...
  • India’s Equity Bull Market: Who Foresaw It In O...
    By on June 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This chart tells you everything you need to know about the opportunities that financial forecasting firm Elliott Wave International (EWI) sees in India’s stock market: A multidecade bull market began in Indian stocks in the year 2003. Even in the depths of the 2008 financial crisis, EWI for...
  • China: The Four Stages Of Growth
    By on June 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From the early 1980s until now China has grown at a pace not matched since the four decades Argentina enjoyed before the First World War. In spite of some fairly goofy attempts a few years ago, however, to characterize China during this period as having followed a set of policies called the “Be...
  • 6 Years of Unprecedented Central Planning: Economy Mo...
    By on June 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    We will all discover that the economy is much more fragile than advertised by the Central Planners and their media toadies. This week I have made the case that the past 13.5 years have been the most destructive to the core values of the nation in U.S. history. The same holds true for the economy, wh...
  • 5 Cognitive Biases That Are Killing Your Returns
    By on June 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    George Dvorsky once wrote that: “The human brain is capable of 1016 processes per second, which makes it far more powerful than any computer currently in existence. But that doesn’t mean our brains don’t have major limitations. The lowly calculator can do math thousands of times b...
  • Why Inflation Would Be Another Drag On The Economy!
    By on June 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    When the Fed wants to stimulate a stagnant economy, or pull one out of a recession, its first tool is to cut interest rates via the Fed Funds rate. And when it wants to cool off an over-heated economy it raises interest rates. In first pulling the economy out of the 2001 recession, then trying to e...

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