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May 2014 | Page 5 of 6 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Weekly Update
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. The weekly charts below are current through the ...
  • Secular Bull and Bear Markets Since 1871
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Was the March 2009 low the end of a secular bear market and the beginning of a secular bull? Without crystal ball, we simply don’t know. One thing we can do is examine the past to broaden our understanding of the range of possibilities. An obvious feature of this inflation-adjusted is the patt...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.0, down from last week’s 134.6. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 4.2 from last week’s 4.1. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its recession ...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Sell In May and Go Away?
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    There is an old Wall Street axiom that goes “Sell in May and go away, come again after St. Leger’s day.”  Of course, as with all Wall Street axioms, they are viewed by the media to be “valid” only if they work every single year. The reality is that no axiom, investm...
  • China: Understanding The Math Behind PPP Calculations...
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A new PPP study complied by the World Bank has generated some pretty excited and, to some, alarming headlines about the new world order. There has been limited reference to this in the Chinese press, for reasons I will discuss later, but here is the Financial Times on the subject: The US is o...
  • New Gold In The Pipeline
    By on May 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    New Gold’s 2014 midpoint guidance has it producing 400k ounces of gold at all-in sustaining costs of $825 per ounce.  This production profile, which is the product of a well-diversified portfolio of mines, places NGD among the mid-tier elite.  But perhaps most impressive about this company is it...
  • Spending Rises But Is It A Sign Of A Stronger Economy...
    By on May 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week we saw the first estimate of the first quarter’s gross domestic product which grew at an annualized rate of just 0.1% or just .025% for the quarter. However, what was crucially important was where that smidgen of growth came from. As shown in the chart below had it not been for the 3...
  • Are Short-Term Market Patterns Still In Charge?
    By on May 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The market has still gone nowhere in 2014. Year to date: Dow: unchgd    S&P 500: + 2.3%   Nasdaq: – 1.5%  Russell 2000: – 3.1% Okay, I know. CNBC is excited because the Dow closed at a new record high yesterday, and so is up for the year. It closed last year at 16,576, and closed yeste...
  • SPX, Dow and Nasdaq Since Their 2000 Highs
    By on May 6, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a update in response to a standing request from David England, a retired professor now actively educating investors through his Trader’s Eye website. In his presentations, he likes to disprove the standard message of Wall Street, “Don’t worry! The market will always come ...
  • The Buffett Valuation Indicator: New Update
    By on May 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Market Cap to GDP is a long-term valuation indicator that has become popular in recent years, thanks to Warren Buffett. Back in 2001 he remarked in aFortune Magazine interview that “it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.” My friend and gues...
  • Abenomics In Review
    By on May 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Abenomics said Japanese stimulus efforts would offset tax hikes. I disagreed. Although one month is not proof, Markit reports Japanese Output and New Orders Decline For First Time in 14 Months Following Tax Hike  Key points: Output falls at fastest pace since December 2012 New orders also down; ex...
  • Why Market Bulls Should Hope Interest Rates Don’...
    By on May 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Yesterday, I participated in a panel discussion on CNBC about the markets and the economy.  It was during the course of that discussion that one of the participants uttered the most important phrase: “Everbody knows interest rates are going to rise.” First, let me explain my reasoning f...
  • GDP Even Worse Than It Looks!
    By on May 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    No US GDP report is complete without an explanation from the Consumer Metrics Institute of how Washington is fooling us. The latest one is even scarier than usual: There are a number of disturbing items in this report: – Even at first glance this is not a good report. Although the headline numbe...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Declined In March After Eight Months...
    By on May 5, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back t...
  • Inside The Latest Employment Report
    By on May 4, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Non-farm Payrolls +288,000, Unemployment Rate Drops to 6.3%; Household Survey Employment -73,000, Labor Force -806,000 Initial Reaction This month sported another amazing difference between the household survey and the payroll survey. The difference is so vast that looking at the numbers in isolatio...
  • It’s Only Like This, Until It’s Like That...
    By on May 3, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This morning I received a blog written by Brad DeLong which asked a simple question; why are people depressed about medium-term prospects for equity investments? He claims he doesn’t understand the gloomy mindset. However, the evidence contradicts DeLong’s underlying assumption about i...

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