Logo Background RSS

Advertisement

May 2014 | Page 4 of 6 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Why To Expect Low Returns Over The Next 10 Years
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Dean Baker, in a recent post at the Center For Economic And Policy Research, tries desperately to dismantle an argument over stock valuations and the potential of an asset price bubble. The basis of his argument, that effectively this time is indeed different, utilizes Robert Shiller’s Cyclic...
  • Defensive Sectors Are Not Much Help In Market Downtur...
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Wall Street’s advice on how to prepare for possible market corrections has always been the same. No matter what happens to the economy people will still have to eat, drink, and take their medicines. So consumer staples, food, beverage, healthcare, and drug companies will do well even in economic a...
  • Deflation Shock Coming?
    By on May 15, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    While the US is celebrating a (supposed) recovery, other big parts of the global financial system are behaving as if some sort of deflationary crash is just around the corner. In Europe, for instance, interest rates are not just declining, they’re plunging. From a recent Sober Look blog: The Unpr...
  • Major Stock Selloff Looms
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    A major selloff is brewing in the lofty US stock markets, which have been grinding sideways for a couple months now.  Momentum has faded despite selective positive earnings-season news and Janet Yellen’s jawboning.  Stocks remain very overvalued, way too expensive for prudent investors to buy. ...
  • Why a Savings Glut Does Not Increase Savings
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Debate about the global savings glut hypothesis is mired in confusion, a fundamental one of which is the seemingly obvious but false claim that a global savings glut must lead to higher global savings. Here, for example, is a recent piece by one of my favorite economists, Barry Eichengreen: Ther...
  • Yield Spread Not Confirming GDP Growth Story
    By on May 14, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The domestic economic growth story took a beating in the first quarter of this year with an initial estimate of just a 0.1% annualized growth rate. This smidgen of a growth rate was quickly blamed on the “winter weather” that occurred, ironically, during the winter. Recently received e...
  • Market Valuation Overview: Fractionally Less Expensiv...
    By on May 13, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators I update during the first days of the month. The four indicators are: The Crestmont Research P/E Ratio (more) The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more) The Q Ratio, which is the total price of the ...
  • Market Valuation, Inflation and Treasury Yields: Clue...
    By on May 12, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I’ve update the charts in this commentary to include the latest monthly data. My monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations on investment returns. In a “normal” market en...
  • I Ain’t Scared
    By on May 10, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Since the beginning of this year, the markets have really not gone much of anywhere.  As shown in the chart below, the S&P 500 has remained confined to a tight trading range between 1850 and 1890.  The good news is that this range has been held despite the ongoing traction of the Fed’s l...
  • On The US Economy…
    By on May 10, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The economic reports for March and April, which were supposed to prove the economic slowdown in the winter months was all weather related, are still not doing a great job of it. Retail sales, manufacturing, and jobs seem to be bouncing back. Auto sales are holding their own. But reports from the imp...
  • The Q Ratio and Market Valuation: Monthly Update
    By on May 9, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Based on data extrapolations through the end of April, the Q Ratio is 62% above its arithmetic mean and 75% above its geometric mean. If we use the calculation method of Nobel Laureate James Tobin, the ratio is 79% above its arithmetic mean and 96% above its geometric mean. The Q Ratio is a popular ...
  • Crestmont Market Valuation Update
    By on May 9, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Based on the March S&P 500 average of daily closes, the Crestmont P/E is now 83% above its arithmetic mean and at the 97th percentile of this fourteen-decade monthly metric. The 2011 article P/E: Future On The Horizon by Advisor Perspectives contributor Ed Easterling provided an overview of E...
  • Is The Stock Market Cheap?
    By on May 8, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Here is a new update of a popular market valuation method using the most recent Standard & Poor’s “as reported” earnings and earnings estimates and the index monthly averages of daily closes for the past month, which is 1,864.26. The ratios in parentheses use the monthly close ...
  • Regression to Trend: A Perspective On Long-Term Marke...
    By on May 8, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    At the end of March the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 78% above its long-term trend, down from 80% above trend the previous month. About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a patte...
  • Problems In The Housing Market? Reality Awakens Oracl...
    By on May 8, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    For the last two years, I have regularly been updating our analysis of the housing market and why the much prophesied recovery was unlikely. (For more information see here, here and here for examples.)  Yet, despite the hard data to the contrary, the mainstream analysis continued to beat the...
  • Biotech Bubble?
    By on May 7, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I’m bringing you a special Outside the Box today to address a very specific question that is on many investor’s minds: is there a bubble in biotech? To answer that question, Patrick Cox, editor of Mauldin Economics’ Transformational Technology Alert, teases apart the data on stock performan...

Advertisement