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May 2014 | Page 3 of 6 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Treasury Bonds: The Belgian Connection
    By on May 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the biggest questions at the end of 2013 was how the Treasury market would react to the reduction of bond buying that would result from the Federal Reserve’s tapering campaign. If the Fed were to hold course to its stated intentions, its $45 billion monthly purchases of Treasury bonds would...
  • Ink + Paper Doesn’t Equal Value
    By on May 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    My dad will turn 84 this year. When he was born, you could walk into a Federal Reserve Bank or the Treasury and redeem your paper money for gold. It actually said you could on every piece of U.S. paper currency: “Redeemable in gold on demand at the United States Treasury, or in Gold or lawful ...
  • Is The Bond Market Sending Bearish Omens?
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Summary: The 10-Yr UST yield has fallen from a high of 3.05% in January to a low of 2.52% Low bond yields and stocks near highs are sending conflicting messages Although many think this is bearish for stocks, I show why this probably isn’t the case The 10-yr UST yield hit a low of 2.52% tod...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Demographics
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
     “Blessed are the young, for they shall inherit the National Debt.”  –  Herbert Hoover I turned 49 this past Monday.  I don’t feel like I am half a century old and my wife regularly tells me that she has five children to take of – our four plus me. But yet, here I a...
  • Amazingly Deceptive Headlines: Part I
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Reporters and their editors (and the corporations that employ them) have the power to shape readers’ perceptions by, for instance, choosing what fact to put first in a story or which expert to quote in what context. But the most powerful tool is the simplest: the headline. Because many people read...
  • Insiders and Corporations Selling At Near Record Pace...
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    For the last few months, and in fact the last 12 months, a lot of so-called ‘smart money’ institutions, hedge funds, and big-name investors, have been warning of expectations of a 10% correction or worse. It still hasn’t happened, but their expectations apparently haven’t changed. Corporate...
  • A Long-Term Look At Inflation: 1871 to Present
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The May Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released this morning puts the April year-over-year inflation rate at 1.95%, which is well below the 3.88% average since the end of the Second World War and 18% below its 10-year moving average. For a comparison of headline inflation with core...
  • Deflation Shock Coming? Part 2: Even Here
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    While the rest of the world is slowing down and in some cases dropping into actual deflation (see here and here, respectively) the US has, sort of, bucked the trend. Despite a horrendous first quarter in which the economy actually shrank, economists seemed content to blame the weather and simply pus...
  • The Rise of China and Decline of Japan
    By on May 20, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From this item the other day at the Wall Street Journal’s Real Time Economics blog comes the graphic below from a recent IMF study that shows how the rest of Asia has become increasingly dependent upon China, rather than Japan, for exports. In cases such as Australia and New Zealand, the change is...
  • Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Weekly Update
    By on May 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. The weekly charts below are current through the we...
  • Don’t Blame ‘Boomers’ For Not Retir...
    By on May 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Every month when the employment data is released there is an almost immediate debate that erupts over the Labor Force Participation Rate. Like any good boxing match, both sides take to their corners. Defenders argue the decline is primarily due to retiring “baby boomers” and demographic ...
  • Survey Explains Why Investors Remain ‘Side-Line...
    By on May 19, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Each quarter I run a survey of investor attitudes, allocations and economic expectations to get a sense of actual “investor” behavior. In the financial markets it is easy to become “detached” from reality and assume that “everyone” is acting in a similar manner....
  • Housing Starts In China Plunge 25%
    By on May 18, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Reports of the pending collapse of China property bubble have circulated for years, including some on this blog. To date, each slowdown was soon followed by another boom to still higher prices. Here we are again, in another slowdown.  China Housing Starts Market Cools, Sales Volume Dries Up The Ne...
  • Silver Stealth Buying
    By on May 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Silver has suffered as a market pariah this year, dragging along doggedly near major lows.  Investors have seemingly abandoned it to chase the Fed’s general-stock-market levitation, an affliction plaguing most of the alternative-investment realm.  But rather provocatively, silver buying remains ...
  • EM Carry Trade Looking Vulnerable
    By on May 17, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last year, post-taper tantrum, the story was all collapsing BRIC walls and emerging-market doom. This year the so-called “fragile five” – Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey, and South Africa – the countries that were most vulnerable last year, are looking downright robust. Since their January ...
  • Is The Market Consolidating Or Topping?
    By on May 16, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This past week I was having a discussion with my good friend Doug Short over the struggle of the S&P 500 to gain ground over the past few months. Good economic news and “stronger than expected” earnings reports have buoyed the market against the drain of liquidity from the Federal Re...

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