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May 2014 | Page 2 of 6 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • How Long Is Long Term?
    By on May 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    During my morning routine of caffeine supported information injections, I ran across several articles that just contained generally bad investment advice and poorly formed analysis. Each argument was hinged on the belief that bull markets last indefinitely, bear markets are simply an opportunity toÂ...
  • Bits and Pieces From Around Global Markets
    By on May 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    After months of anti-government protests a military coup began yesterday in Thailand. Its stock market doesn’t seem to care. It closed up 0.2% last night. China reported last night that its PMI mfg index rose to a five-month high at 49.7 in May. It stock market didn’t care. It closed down 0.2%...
  • See No Evil
    By on May 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In this week’s release of the minutes from its April 29-30 meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers made clear that they see little chance of inflation moving past their 2% target for years to come. In order to make such a bold statement, Fed economists not only had to ignore the current data, but d...
  • Changing Culture: Demographics and Gas Sales
    By on May 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on volume sales is over two months old when it released. The latest numbers, through mid-March, were published yesterday. However, despite the lag, this report offers an interesting perspective on fascinating aspects of ...
  • The US Shale Oil Miracle Disappears
    By on May 26, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The US shale oil “miracle” has about as much believability left as Jimmy Swaggart. Just today, we learned that the EIA has placed a hefty downward revision on its estimate of the amount of recoverable oil in the #1 shale reserve in the US, the Monterey in California. As recently as yest...
  • SPX Peaked In 2000 and 2007 When Margin Debt Did This...
    By on May 24, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Margin debt reaching all-time highs can be viewed as a sign of excessive confidence in the markets, yet knowing this hasn’t been really that helpful when it comes to portfolio construction.   CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE What has happened in the past that has been helpful when it comes to margi...
  • 3 Effective Tools for Navigating International Market...
    By on May 24, 2014 | 1 Comment1 Comment  Comments
    So far this year, Indian stocks are up 15%. The S&P 500 is up less than 3%. Yes, India’s SENSEX would have earned you 5 times more than the S&P — and it’s only May. Want to know what’s next for India? Want to see other “hot” overseas markets? Who wouldn...
  • Is The Economic Recovery Only Statistical?
    By on May 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Like the annual migratory patterns of snowbirds, each year brings the “hope” of a surge in economic activity.  According to the most recent National Association Of Business Economics (NABE) survey: “Real GDP grew 1.7% in 2012. Panelists anticipate real GDP growth to accelerate ...
  • Wall Street Says It’s Different This Time
    By on May 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s a good thing it’s different this time! We know it is because Wall Street says so. The high-valuation levels indicated by the Shiller CAPE 10 Price/Earnings Ratio mean nothing this time, because things are different than when that indicator’s similar readings in previous periods were accom...
  • Fractional-Reserve Banking: From Goldsmiths To Hedge ...
    By on May 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    From Chapter 15 of The Money Bubble, by James Turk and John Rubino: Banking didn’t start out as a reckless, parasitical plaything of a moneyed and politically-connected aristocracy. In the beginning, in fact, bankers weren’t even bankers. They were jewelers and goldsmiths who had to maintain th...
  • Median Home Price and Salary Required in 27 Major Cit...
    By on May 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Tim Manni, the Managing Editor at HSH.com, has a new commentary out entitled “The Salary You Must Earn to Buy a Home in 27 Metros”. The opening tease is a question: “How much salary do you need to earn in order to afford the principal and interest payments on a median-priced home...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Declines Again In April: Leading Ind...
    By on May 23, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through April. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back t...
  • Market Indecision Continues…
    By on May 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    We’re almost five months into the year, with the major indexes still within a couple of percentage points +/- of their December close, and repeatedly failing in attempts to break out to either the downside or upside. Year to date: Dow: -0.7%    S&P 500: +2.2%   Nasdaq:  –1.2% The Nasd...
  • Jobless Claims And The Issue Of Full Employment
    By on May 22, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Last week, the number of first-time jobless claims dropped below 300,000 which has not happened since before the onset of the financial crisis. Not surprisingly, the media and economic analysis exploded with commentary that this is a sure sign that the economic recovery is afoot. Such a recovery wil...
  • Watch Interest Rates – Important Story Developi...
    By on May 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have been a bond “bull” for a long time and reiterated that view in the middle of 2013 as interest rates spiked due to the dumping of bonds by emerging markets at that time. It was then that Bill Gross, the media and the majority of analysts said that the “bond bull market was ov...
  • Labor Force, Employment, and Population: 2008 vs 2014
    By on May 21, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I have two sets of interesting charts from reader Tim Wallace on labor force, population, and employment. This post shows the first set, a comparison of April 2008 to April 2014. Click on any chart to see a sharper image.Age 16-24 Stats Since April 2008, the population in age group 16-24 rose by 3....

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