The $OEXA200R Monthly (the percentage of S&P 100 stocks above their 200 DMA) is a technical indicator available on StockCharts.com used to find the “sweet spot” time period in the market when you have the best chance of making money. The weekly charts below are current through the ...

The Australia Macro Business Blog notes Tier 1 Chinese Cities Discounting Property  Prices and volumes are falling in Beijing and real estate agents are started to drum up sales by delisting homes listed at high prices. Lots of homes listed online now show price cuts, and volumes have picked up re...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 134.6, down from last week’s 134.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 4.1 from last week’s 3.9. ECRI has been at the center of a prolonged controversy since publicizing its recession ...

Since 2012, almost every economist has predicted that the housing recovery would continue into each coming year and would be a key driver of economic growth. That was again the plan for 2014, but with the housing recovery now on the ropes those same economists are perplexed as to why. Yet, “h...

An interesting article hit my inbox this morning from WSJ MarketWatch which was titled“100% Of Economists Think Yields Will Rise Within 6 Months.” From the article: “Economists are unwavering in their assessment of where yields are headed in the next half year. Jim Bianco, of Bian...

I must confess, I occasionally look at Zillow.com to get some idea about the value of our home, purchased here in Bozeman, Montana about three-and-a-half years ago, and was recently astonished to see its Zestimate at about 60 percent above what we paid. Apparently, I’m not the only one who does th...

I have been extremely busy this past week which has put me behind on my usual reading regime. However, with Easter now past, this weekend will allow me the chance to catch up. Therefore, this week’s compilation of things to ponder is a veritable smorgasbord of topics that caught my attention t...

I have been asked often why it seems the markets are continually able to ward off declines despite breaks of technical support levels? It is a good question. While I regularly discuss the broader macro-fundamental or economic backdrops, there is relatively little impact from these issues to the mark...

The Euro has done well over the past couple of years, pushing higher and now its near the top of falling channel resistance. This rally has caused a few investors to become bullish the Euro, nearing peak bullish levels over the past couple of years.   CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE Is the Euro about to...

Gold’s sharp selloffs since mid-March have been mostly driven by American futures speculators’ heavy selling.  These traders dramatically slashed their long bets on gold while ramping up their shorts.  The resulting deluge of supply flooded the market and temporarily overwhelmed demand.  But ...

It is said that they don’t ring a bell at stock market tops. However, the housing industry has sometimes been quite adept at doing just that. In fact, it has been quite prescient in leading the economy, and thus the stock market, in both directions. The most obvious tops followed the bursting of r...

In today’s Outside the Box, Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment have the temerity to point out that since the Great Recession officially ended in 2009, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has been consistently overoptimistic in its projections of US growth. They simply expe...

Summary Core Eurozone CPI inflation rate falls to 0.70%, a multi-decade low This occurs at a time when the PIGS’ average unemployment rate rests near 24% Deflation threat in Europe real as GDP in Europe likely to peak this year European hawks moving towards dovish side of the fence, opening d...

It appears that both bulls and bears have been mostly waiting on the sidelines for some months, both sides talking about their expectations, but neither willing to back those expectations with action beyond brief short-term trades. Is it because the painful whipsawing in the volatility last summer ...

ECB president Mario Draghi has been making lots of noise recently about cutting interest rates because the euro is too strong and banks aren’t lending enough. Realistically, there’s not much room to cut with rates already at a rock-bottom .25 percent.Some suggest negative interest rates ...

At the request of The Advisory Group in San Francisco, here’s updated comparison of four major cyclical bear markets. The numbers are through April 21st close. This chart series features an overlay of the Four Bad Bears in U.S. history since the market peak in 1929. They are: The Crash...