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Is Economy’s Problem Only Weather Or Not?

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher 1 Comment1 Comment Comments
    March 1, 2014

    Dismal reports, and downward revisions of previous reports, on retail sales, auto sales, home-builder optimism, home sales, housing starts and permits, pending home sales, consumer confidence, industrial production, employment reports, the ISM Mfg Index, Durable Goods orders, factory orders, and so on, have come from all regions of the country.

    Wall Street firms and the Federal Reserve are not concerned. At least so they say.

    All is well they say. The economic recovery continues, with just a temporary weather-related glitch.

    Investors are not concerned either, betting better weather in March will prove that the appearance of a crumbling economy is false, entirely weather related, with a back-up position that if not, the Fed will rush back in to the rescue. Perhaps.

    We have been saying all along that reduced but still substantial QE, and favorable seasonality, should keep the bull alive until April or May. Our 100% invested Seasonal Timing Strategy would love to see it.

    But our non-seasonal Market-Timing Strategy says it’s time for investors to be alert.

    We won’t know until April when reports of economic activity for March begin to trickle in, how much of the problem has been weather related.

    Can the market wait that long?

    It has already been made nervous by the continuing dismal reports. In spite of the February rally, it is still down fractionally for 2014 so far, and is potentially stalled at overhead resistance again.

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    Weather was a more believable explanation in December, but is losing its credibility as it continues to be used to explain January and February reports.

    To read my weekend newspaper column click here:  Markets Are Still Loving The Economy’s Increasing Problems

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    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author – Sy Harding, Street Smart Report

    Sy Harding publishes the financial website Street Smart Report Online and a free daily Internet blog at Sy’s Free Blog. In 1999 he authored Riding The Bear – How To Prosper In the Coming Bear Market. His latest book is Beat the Market the Easy Way! – Proven Seasonal Strategies Double Market’s Performance!

    It includes our research and analysis on the economy and markets, and provides charts and buy and sell signals on the major market indexes, sectors, bonds, gold, individual stocks and etf’s, including short-sales and ‘inverse’ etf’s.

    It provides two model portfolios as guides. One is based on ourSeasonal Timing Strategy, one on our Market-Timing Strategy.

    In depth updates are provided every Wednesday, with interim ‘hotline’ updates every time we make a trade. An 8-page traditional newsletter Street Smart Report is provided on the website every 3 weeks, in pdf format for viewing or printing out.

    There is the Street Smart School of online technical analysis ‘seminars’,commentaries to keep you ‘street smart’ about Wall Street, and much more. 

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