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Markets Moving Opposite To Popular Opinion In 2014

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    January 16, 2014

    Interest rates had been rising since October on expectation that if the Fed announced the beginning of tapering back its QE bond-buying, bond yields and interest rates would have to rise, and they did – to year end.

    But so far in the new year:

    From Business Insider:

    “The yield on the 10-year Treasury note broke through to a new multi-year high of 3.03% on the final day of 2013, following the Federal Reserve’s December 18 decision to begin tapering down its bond buying program known as quantitative easing and the attendant sell-off in the U.S. government bond market.

    Friday’s release of the December jobs report, however, sent yields tumbling 10 basis points in a single day, and they are now back below where they were when the tapering-induced sell-off began.”

    Chart from Business Insider/Mathew Boesler (data from Bloomberg.


    10-year Treasury yield


    On the stock market:

    The S&P 500 closed 2013 at a new record high.

    But it hasn’t been impressive so far in the new year.

    Our short-term technical indicators have been calling for another short-term pullback to alleviate the short-term overbought condition, retest support levels, and cool off investor bullishness and euphoria.



    But could it be the beginning of something worse in this five-year old bull market?

    On gold:

    Gold ended 2013 at a new low in its bear market, but has been rallying so far in the new year.

    Is it just another of the many rally attempts that failed at short-term resistance, or is this finally the beginning of a meaningful move, or even the end of its bear market?



    Interesting situations in all markets so far in the new year.

    To read my weekend newspaper column click here:   The Jobs Report Rained On New Fed Chair Yellen’s Honeymoon Period

    Subscribers to Street Smart Report: In addition to the charts and signals in the ‘premium content’ area of this blog, the new issue of the newsletter will be available tomorrow afternoon in your secure area of the Street Smart Report website.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author – Sy Harding, Street Smart Report

    Sy Harding publishes the financial website Street Smart Report Online and a free daily Internet blog at Sy’s Free Blog. In 1999 he authored Riding The Bear – How To Prosper In the Coming Bear Market. His latest book is Beat the Market the Easy Way! – Proven Seasonal Strategies Double Market’s Performance!

    It includes our research and analysis on the economy and markets, and provides charts and buy and sell signals on the major market indexes, sectors, bonds, gold, individual stocks and etf’s, including short-sales and ‘inverse’ etf’s.

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    In depth updates are provided every Wednesday, with interim ‘hotline’ updates every time we make a trade. An 8-page traditional newsletter Street Smart Report is provided on the website every 3 weeks, in pdf format for viewing or printing out.

    There is the Street Smart School of online technical analysis ‘seminars’,commentaries to keep you ‘street smart’ about Wall Street, and much more. 


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