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Market Health Update: Cyclicals Lead, Breadth Still Strong

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    January 6, 2014

    The markets have gotten off to a rocky start this year with the S&P 500 down the first two trading days of the year and down 0.92% year-to-date. A pause should not come as a surprise as the markets were overbought and extended entering 2014 and in much need of cooling off. What remains encouraging about this market is that overall trend and momentum breadth measures remain quite strong and the fact that the market’s weakest area is the defensive sector is bullish as typically the defensive sectors leads before major market peaks. Short-term indictors are still at elevated levels and hint that the recent pause in the market has more to go, but given the strong internals of the market we are likely to see new highs once this pullback in the market is over.

    S&P 1500 Member Trend Strength

    As shown below, the long-term outlook for the S&P 1500 is clearly bullish as 78.2% of the 1500 stocks in the index have bullish long-term trends. The market’s intermediate-term outlook remains in bullish territory at 69.4%. The market’s short-term also remains in bullish territory at a 71.2% reading. What is most important is the market’s strong long-term outlook, which still does not suggest a market top is forming.

    1
    * Note: Numbers reflect the percentage of members with rising moving averages: 200-day moving average (or 200d MA) is used for long-term outlook, 50d MA is used for intermediate outlook, and 20d MA is used for short-term outlook.

    The most important section of the table below is the 200d SMA column, which sheds light on the market’s long-term health. As seen in the far right columns, you have 78% of stocks in the S&P 500 with rising 200d SMAs and 78.8% of stocks above their 200d SMA. Also, nine out of ten sectors are in long-term bullish territory with more than 60% of their members having rising 200d SMAs with the sole exception being the utilities sector.

    2
    Source: Bloomberg

    What you will notice in the table above is the bulk of the red cells are located in defensive sectors like utilities, telecommunications, health care, and consumer staples. However, the strongest sectors (green cells) are located in the market’s most economically-sensitive sectors like industrials, technology, materials, and consumer discretionary, which bodes well for the market’s and economy’s outlook.

    S&P 500 Market Momentum

    The Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) technical indicator is used to gauge the S&P 1500’s momentum on a daily, weekly, and monthly basis. The daily MACD for the S&P 1500 went on a buy signal in the middle of December with the intermediate (weekly) and long-term (monthly) outlooks also on buy signals.

    3
    Source: Bloomberg

    Digging into the details for the 1500 stocks within the S&P 1500 we can see that the daily momentum for the market has improved markedly to 71%, up from a reading of 20% two weeks ago, and is well back into bullish territory.

    The intermediate momentum of the market improved a notch as it rose from 52% two weeks ago to 56% this week, putting it in neutral-bearish territory.

    The market’s long-term momentum remains solid at a strong 78% this week, putting it well into bullish territory and up 2% from two weeks ago.

    4
    Source: Bloomberg

    52-Week Highs and Lows Data

    What continues to be encouraging about the market’s advance is that it is broad based. Even during this week’s decline there were 103 new 52-week highs for every 1 52-week low in the S&P 1500 Composite. Regardless of market cap, as seen below, new highs continue to dominate new lows.

    5
    Source: Bloomberg

    In terms of sectors,  there are four that have a higher percentage of members hitting 52-week highs in the last five days than the S&P 1500, and every one of them is a cyclical sector. In particular, the industrial sector takes the top spot with 46% of its members hitting 52-week highs during the trading week. Like the trend summary above, the fact that cyclical sectors dominate the top spots while defensive sectors are at the back of the pack is a very healthy sign.

    6
    Source: Bloomberg

    Market Indicator Summary

    Below is a multi-indicator chart of the S&P 500 that measures breadth and momentum. The second, third, and fourth panels show the market had reached overbought territory last week and is likely to pose a headwind until unwound. My guess is the market remains weak heading into early next week before these levels are unwound and the market can head higher.

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    Source: Bloomberg

    Summary

    The market remains very healthy and there are no major chinks in the armor as trend and momentum breadth levels remain in bullish territory. What is most encouraging is the market’s most cyclical sectors remain areas of leadership while defensive sectors continue to lag. While the market is likely to continue to remain soft until short-term indicators ease off overbought levels, given the market’s strong internals a major market peak is not likely around the corner.

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    Image: Flickr (licence attibution)

    About The Author – Chris Puplava, Financial Sense Online

    Chris graduated magna cum laude with a B.S. in Biochemistry from California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo. He joined PFS Group in 2005 and is currently pursuing the designation of Chartered Financial Analyst. His professional designations include FINRA Series 7 and Series 66 Uniform Combined State Law Exam. He manages PFS Group’s Precious Metals Managed Account, Energy Managed Account, and Aggressive Growth Managed Account. Chris also contributes articles and Market Observations to Financial Sense and co-authors In the Know—a weekly communication for Jim Puplava’s clients only—with other members of the trading staff. Chris enjoys the outdoors.

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