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January 2014 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Where Does This Market Rally Rank?
    By on January 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Today’s chart of the day is a simple analysis using Prof. Robert Shillers stock market data to look at where the current stock market rally exists in relation to previous market rallies following either cyclical or secular bear market corrections. I have analyzed the data using both nominal a...
  • Economic Reports Continue To Disappoint
    By on January 30, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    As I noted in my weekend column, so far in 2014 economic reports have not been supportive of the Fed’s contention in December that the economy is finally on a sustained recovery pace. In the month since the Fed’s taper decision, economic reports from key areas of the economy; jobs, housing, auto...
  • Margin Debt Surges In December
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    In the month of December margin debt on the NYSE surged by over $20 Billion dollars hitting a new all-time high of $444.931 billion.  The rise in leverage also sent investors net worth to a negative $149.358 billion which is also a record.  This is shown in the chart below. It is important to not...
  • What Blows Up First? Part III: Subprime Countries
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    One of the reasons the rich countries’ excessive money creation hasn’t ignited a generalized inflation is that today’s global economy is, well, global. When the Fed dumps trillions of dollars into the US banking system, that liquidity is free to flow wherever it wants. And in the past few year...
  • Oversold Conditions May Fuel Rally, Market Awaits Fed...
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Fed has started to taper off of the $85 billion in monthly bond purchases at a rate of $10 billion per month. During this month’s policy meeting they will decide whether to stick to the plan and increase the taper by another $10 billion, or slow down the rate of taper. Their decision will ...
  • The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Rea...
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Exclusive invitation: Our friends at Elliott Wave International have just released their new 50-page report for independent investors, The State of the Global Markets — 2014 Edition: The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read This Year. Normally priced at $199, they have allowed us...
  • Best Stock Market Indicator Ever: Weekly Update
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I continue to receive requests for updates to the “Best Stock Market Indicator”, which used to be a regular guest post from John Carlucci. John stopped sending his updates last fall. In early November I posted a permanent Stockcharts.com link to the indicator and its three secondary indi...
  • Should The Federal Reserve Stop The Dominoes?
    By on January 29, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The forest (the economy) can only remain vibrant and healthy if the dead wood is burned off in bankruptcy and insolvency. Retail commercial real estate is over-built and over-leveraged. If it is allowed to burn off as Nature intended, we can finally move forward. Last week I suggested that Retail-CR...
  • The 2014 State Of The Union
    By on January 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Tomorrow the President of the United States is set to deliver his annual “State Of The Union” address.  This past week, I discussed the upcoming speech with Dave Boyer at the Washington Times who hit on some of the key issues that will be addressed: “Mr. Obama’s nationally tel...
  • Emerging Market Contagion Spreads
    By on January 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Argentina Institutes 50% Tax on Internet Purchases; Emerging Market Contagion Spreads; Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey Roundup Yesterday, Argentina devalued the Peso hoping to halt further declines in its currency reserves. Markets had seen this coming as charts of the Peso vs. the US dollar show. Peso...
  • Which Door Will Yellen Choose?
    By on January 28, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Two theories to explain the year-to-date global dumpathon. The first is that it’s all local issues – no single macro story explains the depth of the sell off. Some examples (and why they are individually no big deal): + Turkey is facing big domestic political/economic problems – it’s no sur...
  • 5 Things To Ponder: Valuations, Triggers & Inequ...
    By on January 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    I woke up Friday morning to this headline on ZeroHedge: CNN Politics:  BREAKING:  China Dumps All Bonds, Declares South China Sea Zone Closed My first thought was “Oh! S***” here we go. My nightmare scenario has become a reality.  I quickly flipped over to my markets page to find sto...
  • What’s Next For Markets?
    By on January 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The Dow plunged 579 points (3.5%) for the week. It was down 493 points over just the last two days. It was the market’s worst week since last June, when the Dow plunged 559 points in two days. That time the plunge pretty much ended that pullback. After that two-day collapse the Dow closed up 41 po...
  • 20 Early Warning Signs Of Approaching Global Economic...
    By on January 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    Have you been paying attention to what has been happening in Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey and China?  If you are like most Americans, you have not been.  Most Americans don’t seem to really care too much about what is happening in the rest of the world, but they should.  In...
  • Stocks Still Bullish: Weekend US Market Forecast (Jan...
    By on January 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    This week’s video log is a free look at our subscriber only Weekend US Market Forecast as published for the week ending January 24, 2014. Now even though a market top of some degree is eventually a statistical certainty, the more important question is whether the top that forms will turn out t...
  • Market’s Bill of Health – Weakness Likely to Spil...
    By on January 27, 2014 | No Comments  Comments
    The markets have gotten off to a rocky start this year with the S&P 500 down more than 3% year-to-date and the Dow Industrials down more than 4%. Such weakness is not surprising given how bullish and overbought the market was entering 2014. While we have worked off some of the market’s overly...

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