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December 2013 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • NYSE Margin Debt Back At Historic Tech-Bubble Highs!
    By on December 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through November. I’ve updated the charts in this commentary to include the latest numbers. The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back...
  • Which Market Blows Up First?. Part I: Europe
    By on December 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    2013 was a year in which lots of imbalances built up but none blew up. The US and Japan continued to monetize their debt, in the process cheapening the dollar and sending the yen to five-year lows versus the euro. China allowed its debt to soar with only the hint of a (quickly-addressed) credit crun...
  • Why Investor Expectations Also Need Tapering In 2014
    By on December 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Psychologists say much of the reason investors have such a dismal record of buying high and selling low, of being excited and buying enthusiastically at market tops and then bailing out in disgust at market bottoms, can be explained by the ‘recency bias’ of the human brain. That is we expect wha...
  • Time Of Year Investors Make Biggest Mistake
    By on December 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    We are coming to the time of year when studies show investors make one of their most costly mistakes – chasing performance. At the end of each year the most common activity of investors is to flock to screening tools on the Internet, and review ‘Top 25 Mutual Funds’ lists in magazines, and ...
  • Stock Market Enters Crazytown?
    By on December 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    It is time to crank up the Looney Tunes theme song because Wall Street has officially entered crazytown territory.  Stocks just keep going higher and higher, and at this point what is happening in the stock market does not bear any resemblance to what is going on in the overall economy whatsoever....
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on December 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.9, up from last week’s 130.9. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, slipped to 1.9, down from 2.1 last week. Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of the Big Four Econom...
  • China Cash Crunch Eases, But For How Long?
    By on December 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    As noted on December 23, China Interest Rate Crisis Continues: China Bans Words “Cash Crunch”, the 7-Day Interest Rate Doubled to 10%. The doubling of rates took about a week. Then, on December 24, China injected 29 billion RMB (Yuan), about $4.8 billion. For the size of China’s ...
  • 5 Things To Ponder This Weekend: It’s A Wrap!
    By on December 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    As we slide into the last weekend of 2013, I read several articles this week that got me thinking about where the markets and economy are likely headed in 2014.  However, before we get into today’s list of “Things To Ponder This Weekend”  I just wanted to wish you a happy, safe ...
  • Silver Stocks 5
    By on December 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    2013 has been a brutal year for silver.  And a brutal year for a metal obviously doesn’t bode well for its mining stocks.  Companies that have been exploring for deposits, developing mines, and producing silver have sadly become the pariahs of the markets.  But if silver’s fortunes change in ...
  • Half & Half: Why Rowing Works
    By on December 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Sometimes with all the news of disasters, wars, and plagues, we forget that the human experiment is still fundamentally intact and advancing. My great friend Louis Gave shot me a note sharing this optimistic thought in his Christmas greeting: The United Nations recently released a heartening update ...
  • Relaxing Oil Export Ban Bad News For US Consumers
    By on December 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The US is producing much more energy domestically the last decade in all forms from natural gas to crude oil with a myriad of boutique products along the way, and so it is natural for producers to want to maximize profits by expanding their marketplace. Free Markets haven`t been Free for a long ...
  • General Motors (GM): 2014 Momentum Stock Candidate?
    By on December 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Momentum Stocks Every year on average there are at least 4 momentum stocks that capture Wall Street`s fancy and all the fund managers pile into these names. Hedge funds realize this investing phenomenon and try to figure out which names are going to be the chosen ones this year so they can ride alon...
  • Bitcoin For Dummies: Price Spiking, But No Bubble!
    By on December 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    I have recorded a brief simple video to explain my perspective on digital currencies. Let it be known to all who don’t normally follow me: I’m not a gold bug, I’m not crypto-currency bug, I’m a risk-adjusted return bug! I attempt to see things as they truly are and will call ...
  • The Great Rotation?
    By on December 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Around this time each year the theme of the Great Rotation is dusted off and taken for a spin around the track by financial market pundits far and wide. Of course they are referring to the anticipated movement of capital from the bond market to the stock market. I’d like to briefly discuss an alte...
  • Will Online Sales Rescue Holiday Shopping Season?
    By on December 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The news is terrible from brick and mortar retailers. Retail tracking firm ShopperTrak reports that in-store sales are down 3.1% from a year earlier, while store traffic plunged 21%. That was up to Sunday night, significant since the four days leading up Sunday were expected to be the busiest days...
  • 3 Things To Ponder Over Christmas
    By on December 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    First of all, while realizing that it is politically incorrect to do so, I want to wish you and your families a very merry, safe, and enjoyable Christmas.  While you enjoy your gifts, the traditional Christmas ham and the annual re-gifting of Aunt Meg’s 12-pound fruit cake here are “3 ...

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