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October 2013 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • 2013 Real Estate Bubble Now Bigger Than 2007!
    By on October 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    It’s painfully obvious that real estate valuations are once again at asset-bubble extremes. Correspondent Mark G. submitted a chart of the Wilshire REIT (real estate investment trusts) index that sums up the current real estate market in one image: it’s painfully obvious that real estat...
  • Hoisington Investment Review and Outlook: Q3, 2013
    By on October 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    In their third-quarter Review and Outlook – today’s Outside the Box – Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington get right down to telling us why the Federal Reserve’s Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) program is doomed to failure. (This is a thesis that is dear to my heart, since coauthor Jon...
  • A Long-Term Look at Inflation
    By on October 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The October 2013 Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U) released today puts the September year-over-year inflation rate at 1.18%, less than third the 3.90% average since the end of the Second World War and 51% lower than its 10-year moving average. For a comparison of headline inflation wi...
  • Retail Sales Sluggish While ACA Approaches
    By on October 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    During the government shutdown, the data for a variety of economic reports were halted.  Therefore, I looked at alternative, private sector, data to estimate the government reports.  One such model used the historical differential between the ADP and BLS employment reports to estimate the jobs c...
  • Gold At Critical Juncture Again
    By on October 31, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Technically, gold was extremely oversold beneath its important intermediate-term 30-week moving average in July. Its July-September rally carried it back up exactly to the overhead resistance at the m.a. But it couldn’t break through and tumbled back down. Its new attempt to rally over the last tw...
  • Logging In
    By on October 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    A few weeks back I penned a discussion regarding a number of noticeable technical divergences we’re seeing the in current market environment. How these resolve will be important over the short term. Now that the debt ceiling decision has been forestalled, the markets are basking in the knowledge t...
  • Debt Matters: Abenomics Failure Likely In Medium Term
    By on October 29, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Michael Pettis, at China Financial Markets, discusses Abenomics, Japan’s shrinking (for now) current account surplus, debt, and interest rates in an interesting email. From Pettis …  Abenomics in Japan is likely to put upward pressure on the national savings rate in Japan (but not nece...
  • Market Health Update: Should We Fear Lack Of Fear?
    By on October 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The markets rallied this week with the bright spot being the Dow Transports, which were up 2.82% this week with strong performances from the railroads and carriers. Earnings overall have come in ahead of expectations with 76% of companies beating earnings and showing an average positive surprise of ...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on October 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 131.1, up from last week’s 130.3 (revised from 130.4). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) to one decimal place, dropped to 2.0, down from 2.7 (a downward revision from 2.8). Last year ECRI switched f...
  • Government Debt Is a Diminishing Risk.
    By on October 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    One by one the worries of the doomsday theorists created by the 2008 financial meltdown have dropped away. First it was that the 2007-2009 ‘great recession’ could not help but continue its plunge into a next ‘Great Depression’. Then it was that the government’s massive rescue efforts in 2...
  • Bull Market Continues, But Watch Out Short-Term
    By on October 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The market’s bias remains to the upside. It could even be that the debt-ceiling fiasco in Washington helped to buy the bull market more time. Economic reports are beginning to show the government shutdown was a negative for the economy, but had less effect than was feared. Yet it had enough effect...
  • NDX: A Problem With Volume
    By on October 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The technology sector has been a leader of the market rally for almost a year, and this leadership has been manifested particularly in the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). However, the most recent push to new highs has been driven by a handful of mega-cap stocks (like Google), and in the process the volume p...
  • Why The Federal Reserve Can Only Fail
    By on October 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The basic predicament we are in is that the current crop of leaders in the halls of monetary and political power does not appear to understand the dimensions of our situation. The mind-boggling part about all this is that it’s not really all that hard to grasp. Our collective predicament is si...
  • A Tale of Two Charts: 2007 America or 2006 Zimbabwe?
    By on October 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The US equity markets are back in record territory, at least in nominal terms. The last two times they spiked this way, the following year was pretty brutal. See the next chart, which tracks the S&P 500 and margin debt, the amount of money investors are borrowing against their shares of stock to...
  • Chart Of The Day: Is A Major Correction Coming?
    By on October 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    I recently posted an article posing the question of whether, or not, the markets had entered into the “3rd Stage Of A Bull Market?”  In the article I stated: “Are we in the third phase of a bull market?  Most who read this article will immediately say “no.”  Howeve...
  • Are We Entering Stage 3 Of The Bull Market?
    By on October 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Throughout human history the emotions of “fear” and “greed” have influenced market dynamics.  From soaring bull markets to crashing bear markets, tulip bubbles to the South Sea, railroads to technology; the emotions of greed, fear, panic, hope and despair have remained ...

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