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September 2013 | Elliott Wave Analytics

  • Time To Buy Volatility Again?
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The following chart tells two stories. The first is that the deficit spending and debt monetization of the past few years has calmed the markets. Volatility (more accurately fear), as measured by the VIX index of S&P 500 options, has meandered back below 20, implying that most financial market p...
  • Everything Still Looks Bullish – In The Rear Vi...
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    In his 1999 warning that the stock market over the next 17 years “will not perform anything like it performed in the past 17 years”, Warren Buffett made several other interesting observations. He said [in 1999], “Investors in stocks these days are expecting far too much. . . . . . Once a bull ...
  • Are Treasury Bonds a Safe Haven Again?
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Investors panicked out of bonds after Fed Chairman Bernanke suggested in May that the Fed could begin tapering back its QE bond-buying. But last week marked the third straight week for declining yields (higher prices) for U.S. Treasury bonds. And the money flow and momentum reversal is showing up in...
  • Junior Gold Exploration 3
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Gold’s price multiplying by over fivefold since 2001 has unleashed an onslaught of exploration all over the globe.  Countless mining companies, both old and new, have sought to get their piece of one of the hottest commodities of the 21st century.   Many of these miners have gravitated towards j...
  • ECRI Recession Watch: Weekly Update
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 132.9, up from last week’s 132.3 (revised down from 132.4). The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) rose to 4.9% from last week’s 4.5%. Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of theBig Four ...
  • DJIA Volume Extremely Low?
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Markets have been running with lower than normal volume for quite some time, but this week I noticed that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was running with only about half its 250-EMA of volume, and I wondered if there was some technical significance to this fact. ————...
  • China: The Bulls vs. Bears Debate
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Bulls think China is on the mend. I don’t and neither does Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets. Bullish Arguments  1. Property Prices Rising  The Financial Times reports China house price surge raises prospect of steps to cool market Prices for new homes in Beijing, Shanghai and She...
  • Since 2007 Federal Student Loan Debt Has Risen 503%!
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    A couple of months ago, my friend Robert Brokamp, one of the stalwarts at The Motley Fool, called my attention to an interesting Atlantic article published in July: A Mystery Behind the Rise of Student Debt. The mystery is embedded in this set of observations: “…out-of-pocket spendin...
  • Why Deflation Will Take Most By Surprise
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The last thing on the minds of most people is deflation. It’s easy enough to determine that with a quick quiz — and that quiz is found in the just-published Elliott Wave Theorist. In this July-August Theorist, Robert Prechter uses Google searches to make a point about deflation: “...
  • The ‘Real’ Truth On Household Net Worth
    By on September 30, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Let’s take a long-term view of household net worth from the latest Flow of Funds report. A quick glance at the complete data series shows a distinct bubble in net worth that peaked in Q4 2007 with a trough in Q1 2009, the same quarter the stock market bottomed. The latest Fed balance sheet sho...
  • US Financial Stocks Bullish, But Going Nowhere
    By on September 28, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    In this weekend’s video log we look in detail at the all important US Financial Stocks and in particular the SPDR Select Sector Financials (XLF). By all accounts this sector continues to remain in a technically confirmed bullish uptrend but has now run to a point where upside potential is very...
  • 10 Reasons The Market Will Crash (Or Not)
    By on September 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Douglas McIntyre, of 24/7 Wall Street, recently wrote an article discussing the 10 reasons why the market will, or won’t, crash.  The problem is that the view presented is terribly myopic which creates a misleading discussion of the current market environment.  My notations are in blue in ...
  • Cyprus-Style Wealth Confiscation Going Global!
    By on September 27, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    Now that ‘bail-ins’ have become accepted practice all over the planet, no bank account and no pension fund will ever be 100% safe again.  In fact, Cyprus-style wealth confiscation is already starting to happen all around the world.  As you will read about below, private pension funds w...
  • NYSE Margin Debt Rises Again, Just Off April Highs
    By on September 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYXdata website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let’s examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter. ...
  • Uh-Oh. The Fed Has Passed The Ball To Congress
    By on September 26, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    After a few clumsy dribbles and a fumble, the Fed has passed the economic ball to Congress. And it has markets nervous. Congress’s ball-handling in the past has been so clumsy and non-productive that the team’s approval rating is hovering around a dismal 20%. And teamwork is still not part of ...
  • Has The Federal Reserve Lost Control?
    By on September 25, 2013 | No Comments  Comments
    The stock decline this week has not only rescinded all the gains from the ‘no-taper’ rally, it pushed the SPX below 1704, which was the level before the Fed issued its market-baffling no taper edict.  My friend Bill King did an excellent job of compiling a series of articles which...

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