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Long Term Stock Returns Depend Where You Start

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    August 28, 2013

    My friend Cullen Roche recently posted a note entitle ‘The Long View On Stocks’ which discussed a recent research note out of BofAML on the long term returns of stocks since 1824.  The core point of the analysis was that if someone would have invested just $1 in 1824 it would be worth $4,225,000 today with dividends reinvested.  The piece went on to note the major secular bull market returns but failed to not the secular bear returns.   Cullen picked up on the key issue with this analysis, which I have consistently railed against for the last decade, by jokingly stating:

    “Now, if we could only solve that whole, not being alive for 189 years, problem…..”

    Cullen is absolutely right.  The problem with all of these “invest for the long term” analysis is that it assumes that you will live forever.  Unfortunately, cloning, freezing, stasis, DNA manipulation. Robotics or vampirism have not yet provided viable solutions to immortality.  For most individuals the reality is that by the time that they achieve a level of income and stability to begin actually saving and investing for retirement – they have, on average, about 40 years of investible time horizon before they expire.

    When considering the impact of 15-18 year secular market cycles, as shown in the chart below, it really becomes much more important in determining the “WHEN” to invest as much as “WHAT” to invest in.

    S&P-500-secular-periods-real-030713

    I have prepared two different charts to show you the impact of investing revolving around 40 year time spans.  I used an initial investment of $1000 at the beginning of each decade and analyzed the capital appreciation for the ensuing 40 year period.  In this regard we can garner a clearer picture about the impact of both secular bull and bear market cycles on the total investment returns.  [Note:  The data below uses Shiller’s price data on a nominal basis and is based on monthly capital appreciation only.]

    The first chart shows the average annual return for each starting decade.

    40-year-avg-return

    The next chart shows the capital appreciation of a $1000 initial investment.

    40-year-capital-appreciation

    As you can see it makes a huge difference on the ending result depending on “WHEN” you start.  If you started investing during the 50’s and 60’s then you were lucky enough to capture the raging “bull market” of the 80’s and 90’s which offset the secular bear market of the 70’s.  However, if it started in 1990, so far, results haven’t been all that great as the secular bear market of the 21st century has slowly chipped away at the gains of the 90’s.

    One very important thing to be noted here, which I have discussed in the past, is that valuations have been a key driver of these 40 year cycles.  The best 40 year returns came from when the starting point in valuations were below 10x trailing reported earnings.  Today, at over 19x trailing reported earnings (the only valuation measure that is historically consistent),it suggests that the next 40 years will produce substandard rates of return.

    Of course, it really just depends on how long you think you will live.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Lance Roberts – Host of StreetTalk Live
    After having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; Lance has pretty much “been there and done that” at one point or another. His common sense approach has appealed to audiences for over a decade and continues to grow each and every week.

    Lance is also the Chief Editor of the X-Report, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to the management portfolios. A daily financial blog, audio and video’s also keep members informed of the day’s events and how it impacts your money.

    Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation’s biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.
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