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Middleton: French Banks Most Systemic Risk In Europe

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    June 14, 2013

    Yesterday I opined extensively on transparency (actually, the lack thereof) in the European banking system - Transparency In The European Banking? Madness, I say! Sheet, Utter Madness!!!I tore into the Irish banks as well as reminding all of the 2011 research that found the French banks to be the weakest link in pan-European banking contagion. Of course, you’d never here that from the sell side. Well, as luck would have it, look what I found on Euromoney.com today (Hat tip @StaceyHerbert)…

    French banks most systemically risky in Europe – HEC Lausanne study:

    According to systemic risk measures for European financial institutions, developed by the Centre for Risk Management at Lausanne (CRML), French regulators would need to provide €300 billion, as of mid-May, to fulfil regulatory requirements in the event of a global financial crisis, defined as a 40% semi-annualized fall in global stock markets.
    Using methodology developed in collaboration with the well-known and influential New York University Stern’s Volatility Institute, run by NYU professor Leonard Stern and Nobel laureate Robert Engle, the index gauges large European banks’ systemic risk by measuring size, leverage and exposure to global equity market shocks. The dynamic index, updated on a monthly basis, reveals that, as of mid-May, Crédit Agricole has the greatest risk exposure of any bank in Europe, followed by Deutsche Bank and BNP Paribas.

    Hmmm… Now, where have we heard this before?

    French Banks Can Set Off Contagion That Will Make Central Bankers Long For The Good ‘Ole Lehman Collapse Days!

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    This Is Why BoomBustBlog Is THE Place To Go For Hard Hitting Research: BoomBust BNP Paribas?

    The WSJ article excerpted above quotes BNP management as saying: “The bank has €135 billion in “unencumbered assets after haircuts” that are eligible to central banks.”

    OK, I’ll bite. Excactly how did BNP get to this €135 billion figure? Was it by using Lehman math? Methinks so, as clearly delineated in my resarch report on the very first page:

    BNP_Paribus_First_Thoughts_4_Page_01

     

    The Beginning Of The Great French Unwind?!?!?!…

    Another BIG Reason Why BNP Paribas Is Still Ripe For Implosion!

    As excerpted from our professional series File Icon Bank Run Liquidity Candidate Forensic Opinion:

    … Now, if you were to employ the free BNP bank run models that I made available in the post “The BoomBustBlog BNP Paribas “Run On The Bank” Model Available for Download”” (click the link to download your own copy of the bank run model, whether your a simple BoomBustBlog follower or a paid subscriber) you would know that the odds are that BNP’s bond portfolio would probably take a much bigger hit than that conservatively quoted above.  Here I demonstrated what more realistic numbers would look like in said model…

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    Images: Flickr (licence/attribution)

    About The Author

    Reggie Middleton is an entrepreneurial investor who guides a small team of independent analysts to uncover truths, seldom if, ever published in the mainstream media or Wall Street analysts reports. Since the inception of his BoomBustBlog, he has established an outstanding track record

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