Logo Background RSS

Advertisement

Anticipating Friday’s Employment Report

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    June 7, 2013

    The most important economic news this week is Friday’s employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This monthly report contains a wealth of data for economists, probably the most significant in the near term being the month-over-month change in Total Nonfarm Employment (the PAYEMS series in the FRED repository).

    Today we have the May estimates from ADP (135K new jobs) and TrimTabs (135K new jobs). These are weak numbers.

    The ADP estimate came in below the Briefing.com estimate of 157K, and last month’s 119K was revised downward to 113K.

    Here is a visualization of the three series over the past twelve months, ending with the ADP and TrimTabs estimates for May.

     

     

    A key difference among the three is that the ADP and the BLS series are subject to substantial revision. Here, for example is an illustration of the ADP revisions from January of last year through March 2013.

     

     

    The Briefing.com estimate for Friday’s nonfarm jobs number is 175K. Investing.com has a slightly lower 170K.

    For a sense of the critical importance of nonfarm employment for the economy, see my Big Four Economic Indicators, which I’ll be updating on Friday after the BLS employment report on April data is published.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    My original dshort.com website was launched in February 2005 using a domain name based on my real name, Doug Short. I’m a formerly retired first wave boomer with a Ph.D. in English from Duke. Now my website has been acquired byAdvisor Perspectives, where I have been appointed the Vice President of Research.

    My first career was a faculty position at North Carolina State University, where I achieved the rank of Full Professor in 1983. During the early ’80s I got hooked on academic uses of microcomputers for research and instruction. In 1983, I co-directed the Sixth International Conference on Computers and the Humanities. An IBM executive who attended the conference made me a job offer I couldn’t refuse.

    Thus began my new career as a Higher Education Consultant for IBM — an ambassador for Information Technology to major universities around the country. After 12 years with Big Blue, I grew tired of the constant travel and left for a series of IT management positions in the Research Triangle area of North Carolina. I concluded my IT career managing the group responsible for email and research databases at GlaxoSmithKline until my retirement in 2006.

    Contrary to what many visitors assume based on my last name, I’m not a bearish short seller. It’s true that some of my content has been a bit pessimistic in recent years. But I believe this is a result of economic realities and not a personal bias. For the record, my efforts to educate others about bear markets date from November 2007, as this Motley Fool article attests.

Advertisement

Play All Replay Playlist Replay Track Shuffle Playlist Hide picture