Global markets historically tend to move quite closely in tandem with each other, into and out of corrections, into and out of bull and bear markets. That tendency can also be seen in the seasonal patterns, as proven in a number of academic studies: Market’s Seasonal Patterns in Global Markets! ...

The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) is at 130.6, up slightly from last week’s 130.3. The WLI annualized growth indicator (WLIg) fell to 5.8% from 6.1% last week (revised from 6.2%). Last year ECRI switched focus to their version of theBig Four Econo...

There’s not much arguing against gold stocks being the most hated sector in the markets these days.  And with such a loathing, you can only imagine the visceral disdain towards the more risky juniors.  Provocatively it wasn’t too long ago that the junior subsector was a speculators’ paradise...

Do the 1982, 2002, 2003 closing lows and the 1987, 1999 and 2007 closing highs have something in common?  Yes! They are emotional extremes, Key highs and lows in the Dow since President Reagan was in office. CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE   Joe Friday….The “Emotipoints” con...

A system that suppresses dissent is fault-intolerant, ignorant and fragile. Increasing centralization has been viewed as the solution for all social and economic problems for quite some time. The Eurozone project is one recent manifestation of this belief. The basis of this belief is rationality an...

Michael Pettis at China Financial Markets commented on the liquidity crunch and spike in SHIBOR a few days ago via email. His comments came in before China intervened to quite the markets as noted in China Acts to Calm Markets; Stock Market Rebounds From 6% Plunge After Central Bank Pledges More ...

A little over two years ago I queried “Is Another Banking Crisis Inevitable?“. This post attracted the attention of certain ING executives who apparently were asking themsevles the same question. I was invited as the keynote speaker at their valuation conference in Amsterdam wherein I dr...

On the surface the Personal Income and Spending report from May came in pretty much in line with expectations.  The good news is that both incomes and spending did increase contributing the slate of economic reports that have beaten expectations as of late.  However, it is important to remember th...

The wheels have come off the endless growth via expanding debt machine. Progressives and conservatives have long shared a single agenda: growth. Growth increases prosperity and wealth, and this makes for contented voters who will keep voting for incumbents. This agenda makes three implicit assumpti...

I am not going to bore you with further discussion of the most recent downward revision to the 1st quarter GDP report from 2.4% to 1.8%.  While this downward revision certainly “shocked”mainstream economists and analysts – it really should come as no surprise given the ongoing ...

The Financial Times notes that Italy faces billions in losses on Derivatives Restructured in Eurozone Crisis.  Italy risks potential losses of billions of euros on derivatives contracts it restructured at the height of the eurozone crisis, according to a confidential report by the Rome Treasury t...

I watch the news as a part of my work, and lately I have been seeing a deluge of stories, reported by smiling, happy people, about how wonderful the housing market is. That alone makes me think that the housing market is about to top. ————————– ...

The reality of U.S. economic conditions were revealed by two reports this week that measure what the economy is actually doing, rather than what analysts believe it should be doing based on analyzing and interpreting individual reports like employment numbers, rising home prices, consumer confidence...

Over the past week I received numerous emails regarding my June 13 post Mish Buys a Basket of Miners. People want to know if I am still in the trade. Others taunted they will be buying when I selling. Well good luck with that idea, because this is an investment not a trade.One reader proposed ̶...

Earlier today we learned that the Third Estimate for Q1 2013 real GDP came in at 1.8 percent, down from 2.4 percent in the Second Estimate released last month. Let’s now review the numbers on a per-capita basis. For an alternate historical view of the economy, here is a chart of real GDP per-c...

This piece is excerpted from the June 2013 edition of the Global Investor newsletter. See the full version here. The Japanese stereotype of excessive courtesy is being confirmed by the actions of prime minster Shinzo Abe who is giving the world a free and timely lesson on the dangers of overly a...