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Economy In Pictures: Have We Seen The Peak?

  • Written by Syndicated Publisher No Comments Comments
    April 9, 2013

    The general mantra from mainstream analysts and economists since the first of the year is that the “economy is set to finally turn the corner.”  The premise of the assumption is that the Fed’s continued monetary actions, and now specific targeted goals of suppressed inflation and targeted employment, is going to push the economy into “escape velocity.” 

    Normally, I devote my writings each day to pointing out the data trends behind the headlines and discussing my personal views on the economic, and financial, implications relating to what the data analysis reveals.  Today, I leave the analysis up to you.

    The following series of charts displays several important economic variables ranging from incomes and production to economic growth.  The question for you to answer: “Is the economy about to boom OR has it peaked for the current economic cycle?”

    As you look at each chart below compare what you are visualizing versus what you are being told.

    Wages & Salaries

    Incomes are the lifeblood of the economy.  In order for consumers to consume (which makes up roughly 70% of the economy currently) wages must rise at a rate to support increases in consumption.

    Wages-Salaries-YoYChange-040513

    Consumer Spending:

    As state above, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) comprise about 70% of the gross domestic product calculation.  As PCE goes – so goes the economy.

    PCE-040513

    Production and Manufacturing:

    The chart below is the STA Economic Output Composite Index which is an index comprised of the Chicago Fed National Activity Report, ISM Composite, several Fed regional manufacturing surveys, Chicago ISM PMI, and the NFIB Small Business Survey.  This is a very broad measure of the economy.

    STA-EOCI-Index-040513

    Employment:

    The chart below shows both the seasonally adjustment employment levels compared to a 12-month moving average of the non-seasonally adjusted data.

    Employment-040513

    GDP:

    GDP-040513

    Conclusion

    Regardless of your personal views about the economy, the political environment or the markets – what is important is to separate emotion from investing.  While the Fed’s continued liquidity injections have sharply boosted asset prices in recent months – the bond market, as shown in the chart below, has continued to show a preference of safety over risk.  With rates plunging in recent weeks the indictment from the bond market concurs with the longer term data that the economy remains at risk.

    Interest-Rate-SP500-040513

     

    While the stock market continues to ramp up due to the Fed’s interventions the disconnect between the markets, and the real underlying economic fundamentals, will ultimately resolve itself.  I am not suggesting that a crash is looming as none of this data suggests that a recession is imminent, however, the data also does not support the mainstream view that the economy is set to accelerate or that the markets are entering into the next great secular bull market.

    The reality is that the economy is continuing to muddle along through the greatest monetary experiment in modern monetary history.  However, what is becoming more readily apparent is that the impact from these ever expanding programs continue to support Wall Street and the financial system but fails to improve the diminished state of Main Street.

    Images: Flickr (licence attribution)

    About The Author

    Lance Roberts – Host of Streettalk Live

    lance robertsAfter having been in the investing world for more than 25 years from private banking and investment management to private and venture capital; Lance has pretty much “been there and done that” at one point or another. His common sense approach has appealed to audiences for over a decade and continues to grow each and every week.

    Lance is also the Chief Editor of the X-Report, a weekly subscriber based-newsletter that is distributed nationwide. The newsletter covers economic, political and market topics as they relate to the management portfolios. A daily financial blog, audio and video’s also keep members informed of the day’s events and how it impacts your money.

    Lance’s investment strategies and knowledge have been featured on Fox 26, CNBC, Fox Business News and Fox News. He has been quoted by a litany of publications from the Wall Street Journal, Reuters, The Washington Post all the way to TheStreet.com as well as on several of the nation’s biggest financial blogs such as the Pragmatic Capitalist, Zero Hedge and Seeking Alpha.
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